The apartment subscription market, which has been hot, has been on the decline since the end of last year, and the new year is even starting to feel chilly.
As the trading market plunged due to tightening loan regulations and pressure to raise interest rates, analysis suggests that a cold wave will blow in the subscription market, just as the market recently closed in the metropolitan area.
According to Real Estate R114 on the 6th, the national apartment subscription competition rate in January this year was 15.5 to 1, which was lower than the average of last year (19.7 to 1).
During the same period, the competition ratio in the metropolitan area (Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon) was almost halved from 31.0 to 1 to 17.4 to 1.
Apartment prices in the metropolitan area soared last year with a double-digit increase, but the recent widespread perception that house prices are at their peak is believed to have an impact on the subscription market.
In addition, the fact that the demand for subscriptions in the metropolitan area is dispersed due to the advance subscription for the 3rd new city, which started in the second half of last year, is also cited as the cause of the decrease in the competition rate.
In particular, the competition rate in Seoul fell from 164.1 to 1 to 34.4 to 1 during this period.
This means that it has plummeted to one-fifth of the level of last year.
The first sale in Seoul this year and the only complex in Mia-dong, Gangbuk-gu, Seoul last month, 'North Seoul Gypolaris' (Mia 3 district redevelopment), had a minimum of 54 points (exclusive area 38㎡B type).
This is 6 points lower than the average of 60 points, which was the lowest point average for winning the Seoul apartment subscription last year.
The total additional points for subscription is 84 points, including 15 years or more of no home period (32 points), 6 or more dependents (35 points), and 15 years or more of subscription period (17 points).
In this complex, the lowest winning points for exclusive 84 m² and 112 m² housing types with a pre-sale price of over 900 million won were 56-58 points, all in the 50s.
On the other hand, the lowest winning points for the exclusive 51㎡·59㎡ housing type with a price of less than 900 million won were 60 to 66 points, which was in the 60s.
The high-scoring buyers flocked to small-sized units whose selling price did not exceed 900 million won.
Starting this year, there are signs that the withdrawal from the subscription ranks will accelerate as the individual total debt repayment ratio (DSR) regulation is applied when the total loan amount exceeds 200 million won, not only for the interim payment but also for the remaining loan.
Yeo Kyung-hee, senior researcher at Real Estate R114, said, "This year's subscription market is unlikely to show as much enthusiasm as in previous years. It made it difficult to enter the market,” he explained.
The initial sale rate of private apartments (the percentage of contracts within 3 to 6 months after sale) also started to decline from the end of last year when loan regulations and interest rate hikes began in earnest.
The initial sale rate is the ratio of the number of contracted households to the total number of sold-out households at workplaces with a period of more than 3 months and less than 6 months since the start date of sale. Private apartments nationwide with more than one household are the target of the investigation.
According to HUG, the initial sale rate of private apartments nationwide in the fourth quarter of last year (October to December) was 93.8%, which fell for two consecutive quarters following the second quarter (98.3%) and the third quarter (97.9%) of the same year.
In the case of the metropolitan area where the initial sale rate recorded 100.0% for the first time in the third quarter of last year, Seoul showed 100.0% in the fourth quarter, but as Gyeonggi and Incheon fell to 99.9% and 91.1%, respectively, it fell to 99.2% overall.
During the same period, the 5 largest metropolitan cities (Daejeon, Daegu, Ulsan, Busan, Gwangju) and Sejong had 94.4% to 92.3%, and 7 other provinces (Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, Jeju) had 97.8%. % to 90.7% respectively.
During this period, Daegu showed a relatively large drop from 90.7% to 82.7%, and in other provinces, Jeonnam dropped from 100.0% to 55.8%.
As such, as non-contracts occur around the outskirts of Seoul and other regions, it is difficult to sell out (complete sales).
The number of unranked subscriptions, which receives subscriptions for households that did not find a contractor due to contract abandonment or ineligible subscription winning, and selects winners by random lottery, is also on the rise.
Nationwide, the number of non-priority subscriptions was less than 1,000 households until October last year, but in November (1,31 households) and December of the same year, when the market began to cool rapidly in the aftermath of loan regulations, 1,160 households in December and 1,000 households in January this year 332 households recorded an increase of more than 1,000 households for three consecutive months.
Non-priority subscriptions were popular as the competition rate soared to tens of thousands of jobs to the extent that a new word was coined, 'pick up', but this popularity has clearly waned in recent years.
The competition ratio of 'Songdo Zythe Star' in Songdo-dong, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon, which recently received a non-priority subscription after 35% of the total pre-sale volume was uncontracted, was only 9 to 1.
The enthusiasm of the subscription market is also reducing the number of subscribers to the literacy subscription account.
The monthly subscription account subscribers were 103,728 in August last year, 97,117 in September, 61,262 in October, 41,255 in November, and 17,872 in December. This is the fourth month of decline.
As the market situation rapidly cooled, some complexes appeared in Seoul that canceled the resident recruitment notice and lowered the sale price to resume supply.
'Cantabil Suyu Palace', which reorganizes the Gangbuk General Market in Suyu-dong, Gangbuk-gu, Seoul and supplies 216 households for post-sale, canceled the occupant recruitment notice last month, recalculated the sale price, and announced again in the middle of this month.