This year's Spring Festival stalls can be described as ice and fire.

There are still 5 days before the Spring Festival, and as of the evening of January 26, the total pre-sale box office of the Spring Festival has reached 256 million yuan, which is not as good as the performance of the same period last year.

4 films have been withdrawn before this, and only 8 films are left.

  In the face of the record-high average ticket price and the disturbance of the epidemic, market expectations are quite different: because the box office of the Spring Festival in 2021 hit a record 7.84 billion yuan, some brokerage institutions are optimistic that the box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 is expected to exceed 8 billion yuan. , but more industry insiders tend to be neutral, and some institutions even expect the box office to be less than 7 billion yuan.

  Although there are differences in the performance of the broader market, the market expectations for "Watergate Bridge" are more consistent. The pre-screening media expect the box office to be generally around 6 billion yuan, and even directly give a box office forecast of 7.5 billion yuan, which is much higher than earlier. The previous work "Changjin Lake" broke the box office record in domestic film history.

  A super strong pattern

  The Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, and the contest between the films is slowly opening.

  "A good meal is not afraid of being late".

Although "Watergate Bridge" was set late, it did not prevent it from quickly "dominating the list" with the help of the popularity of the previous work.

Based on the data of Taopiao Piao and Maoyan, the cumulative number of people who want to watch "Water Gate Bridge" is as high as 1.93 million, and it is in an absolute leading position among the Spring Festival films.

The box office expectations of the film are even more amazing. The professional version of the lighthouse shows that five film critics have given an expectation of 5.2 billion to 7.5 billion yuan for "Watergate Bridge", and the median value is much higher than the previous work.

  Other films are also different.

"Miracle · Stupid Child" is directed by Wen Muye, who directed "I'm not the God of Medicine" and supervised by Ning Hao. It is a realistic film about young people's entrepreneurship in Shenzhen. 》The related main creators will also return in a special way.

"The Four Seas" is the fourth film directed by Han Han. It continues the "Korean" literary and "Korean" humorous style of Han Han's previous works. It has all elements of nostalgia, roads, and comedy. Liu Haoran, Liu Haocun, Shen Teng and other stars gather.

"This Killer Isn't Calm" is a comedy work produced by Happy Twist, starring Ma Li and Wei Xiang.

"Sniper" directed by Zhang Yimou is the main theme film of the sniper warrior image during the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea.

There are as many as 3 animated films in the Spring Festival this year, including new works from the two major children's IPs "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" and "Bears".

  Liu Zhenfei, an analyst at Maoyan Research Institute, told a reporter from China Securities Journal that from the pre-screening point of view, the Spring Festival in 2022 will be the distribution of "one super, four strong and three animations".

Regarding the ownership of the "dark horse" in the Spring Festival file, he analyzed that "Miracle · Stupid Child" is the first film to enter the Spring Festival file with "plot" as the only theme label, which is a risk and an opportunity point.

If the film can arouse strong emotional resonance from the audience with its high-quality plot, then the box office potential will be limitless.

"The Killer Isn't Calm" is the only film in the Spring Festival this year with a comedy theme.

Comedy is no longer the absolute owner of the Spring Festival box office champion, but comedy must be just in demand in popular schedules, and it also has the opportunity to become a dark horse.

  Multiple factors disturb the box office market

  The 2021 Spring Festival box office hit a record high, with a total box office of 7.84 billion yuan including service fees.

In this context, whether the 2022 Spring Festival file can set a new record has attracted much attention from the market.

  The performance of the Spring Festival pre-sale can be regarded as an important indicator.

This year's Spring Festival pre-sale started on January 21, which is significantly behind compared with previous years, and the pre-sale data is not ideal.

Taking the performance of the top film as an example, "Detective Chinatown 3" in the pre-sale stage of the Spring Festival in 2021 took 36 hours to pre-sell more than 100 million yuan, while "Water Gate Bridge" in the pre-sale stage of the Spring Festival in 2022 took five days. .

  The box office performance of the Spring Festival stalls mainly depends on the ticket price and the number of moviegoers.

In terms of ticket prices, the average ticket price of the Spring Festival stalls has gradually risen from 33.7 yuan in 2012, reaching a new high of 48.9 yuan in 2021, while the average ticket price in the pre-sale stage of the Spring Festival stalls this year is as high as 58 yuan.

  The epidemic is an important variable affecting the number of moviegoers.

According to the research report of CICC, the epidemic situation in some regions will show a repeated trend in early 2022, and it cannot be ruled out that cinemas in some regions will be closed or occupancy restrictions will be implemented, which will affect the number of moviegoers.

On the whole, he believes that the number of moviegoers is relatively flexible, and the degree of follow-up impact of the epidemic and whether the word of mouth can ferment after the film is released will be the key factors in determining the number of moviegoers.

  "The number of people is not enough, and the ticket price will be collected." A researcher from an institution in Shanghai bluntly said that judging from the performance of pre-sale, this year's Spring Festival stalls are not optimistic.

CICC even estimated that under a neutral scenario, the box office including service fees would be 6.96 billion yuan.

Cinemas in lower-tier cities dominate

  As the most important period of the year, the Spring Festival has also become an important stage for many listed film companies to grab their performance.

  "Watergate Bridge", as the box office champion of the Spring Festival in 2022, has a greater probability of benefiting its producers.

Bona Pictures is the main producer of the film, and Alibaba Pictures is also an important producer. Co-producers include AVIC Industry Finance, Huanrui Century, etc.

  Alibaba Pictures made a big bet on the Spring Festival this year.

The producers of "Miracle: Stupid Child" include Alibaba Pictures and Wanda Films; the producers of "Sihai" involve Alibaba Pictures and Bona Pictures; the producers of "This Killer Is Not Too Cold" involve listed companies including China Literature Group and Maoyan Entertainment , the co-producers include Alibaba Pictures; the main controlling producer of "Sniper" is Enlight Media; the producers of "Xiyangyang and the Basket of Big Big Wolf Out of the Future" include Aofei Entertainment and Alibaba Pictures.

  There is great uncertainty in the final box office direction of the 8 films, but theaters can generally make a lot of money during the Spring Festival.

  Among them, the explosive power of cinemas in lower-tier cities is stronger.

Zhang Rongdi, an industry analyst at the Lighthouse Research Institute, said that by analyzing the box office distribution of the Spring Festival stalls in the past, compared with the overall market, the online-level distribution of the Spring Festival stalls is more sinking, and the proportion of third- and fourth-tier cities is higher than that of the broader market. dropped.

On a yearly basis, the overall box office of third- and fourth-tier cities is on the rise.

  Hengdian Film and Television has advantages in lower-tier cities.

As of the end of June 2021, Hengdian Film and Television had 385 self-operated theaters, of which the third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier cities accounted for 70%.

Wanda Films, the leading theater chain, is expected to make considerable profits by virtue of its layout in first- and second-tier cities.