Our reporter Xie Ruolin
A few days ago, a netizen complained on the short video platform that he purchased three large boxes (36) of Bubble Mart SP series blind boxes in an offline store, but when he unpacked one of the boxes, he found that the blind boxes that should have been sealed were originally sealed. There are signs of disassembly on the bottom of the box.
Once the video was released, it attracted the attention of many blind box enthusiasts.
In response, Bubble Mart responded quickly and said it would compensate.
This is not the first time this has happened.
As early as 2020, there was a second sales incident in Bubble Mart’s offline stores, and the company finally dismissed the employees involved.
For consumers who buy blind boxes, "blindness" is a key factor in the purchase action.
However, with the soaring second-hand prices of scarce "hidden items", the related industry chain has also been quietly extended. There are always people who "take the risk" and try to "make a big difference with a small amount of money", which is also a microcosm of the current economic chaos in the blind box/fashion game.
In the past two years, the blind box economy has been blindfolded, and "everything can be a blind box" has become the traffic password of many businesses.
Recently, the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Market Supervision has formulated and released the "Shanghai Blind Box Business Activities Compliance Guidelines" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines"), which is the first guideline for the blind box industry and a wind vane for industry supervision.
Are blind boxes still a good business in the face of increasingly strict supervision?
Who is crazy about blind boxes?
As of June 30, 2021, the cumulative number of registered members of Bubble Mart alone was 11.415 million. In the first half of 2021, members contributed 91.8% of the company's sales, and the repurchase rate was 49%.
That is to say, half of the members will make secondary consumption.
Anyone who is new to the blind box will have a question, why is the blind box so attractive?
"Thank you Pupu", the UP host of Station B, was also very puzzled until half a year ago when she passed a robot blind box machine, and since then "opened the door to a new world".
"At first it was just out of curiosity, but later I got 'up' and wanted to draw 'hidden money'. Then I was coerced by the various game rules of blind box manufacturers, such as completing daily tasks to get 'lucky points', saving money The 'lucky value' can be exchanged for a pass-through card, and based on the pass-through card, it can be judged whether there are hidden funds in the blind box, etc." She told reporters that she has gradually calmed down, because the longer she plays, the more routines she discovers.
Previously, "Thank you Pupu" was engaged in household work, with a monthly salary of between 8,000 yuan and 10,000 yuan. "One (blind box) was 59 yuan, and I bought a lot without knowing it. So far, the total cost is between 50,000 yuan and 60,000 yuan. 10,000 yuan." Now, "Thank you Pupu" has controlled the monthly spending on blind boxes to around 1,000 yuan.
在B站，“谢谢噗噗”是一个专注拆盲盒的“小透明”UP主，截至记者截稿，她发布了118个视频，仅有1010个粉丝。但有意思的是，她拥有一个近400人的线下粉丝群，群友们几乎时时刻刻都在交流“抽盲盒”心得，如果一天不点开这个群，就会显示上千条未读消息。
那么，都是谁在买盲盒呢？
记者带着问题在群里随机询问了十余位群友，令人意外的是，被提问到的所有人都是成年人，职业更是涵盖了医生、剪辑师、舞蹈演员、网红等。
泡泡玛特官方提供的用户数据显示，从年龄来看，18岁至24岁的用户占32%，25岁至29岁的占26%，30岁至34岁的占20%，其他年龄段占22%；从用户性别来看，女性占75%，男性占25%；从职业来看，白领占33.2%，学生占25.2%，个体经营占8.7%，教职人员占12%，其他职业占20.9%；从月收入来看，8000元至20000元的占90%，其他占10%。
来咖智库CEO王春霞告诉记者，热衷于盲盒的消费者主要有三重心理因素：第一是情感满足，盲盒设计通常很萌，让人有购买欲望，同时还有很多联名款，比如“猫和老鼠”系列、“迪士尼公主”系列、“哈利波特”系列等，这些IP的粉丝也会为之买单；第二是社交满足，盲盒粉丝已经形成一个固定的社交圈，俗称“娃圈”，这与游戏玩家充值一样，在特定群体中消费越多越受关注；第三是赌徒心理，抽盲盒存在赌博心态，消费者为了抽中“隐藏款”而不惜一掷千金。
盲盒经济从何而来？
盲盒可以追溯到20世纪初日本百货商店的“福袋”。20世纪80年代，日本以ACG(动画、漫画、游戏)为主要用户的“扭蛋”玩具也是盲盒最初的形态。直至21世纪初，日本Dream株式会社推出最早的盲盒玩具Sonny Angel，盲盒正式盛行。
中国市场上，盲盒最初以“集卡”的形式出现，上世纪90年代，干脆面中的一张“宋江”水浒卡就价值不菲。此后，口红机、幸运盒子等也是盲盒不同的表现形式，但这些内容并未引起购买风潮。
2015 was a pivotal year for China's blind box industry.
This year, 52TOYS was established, and Bubble Mart began to represent the Japanese blind box toy Sonny Angel, initially opening the Chinese blind box market.
In 2016, Bubble Mart obtained the exclusive authorization of Molly. This girl with big eyes and pouting mouth is very popular among consumers.
In August of that year, the first "Molly Zodiac" blind box series was born, and the 200 sets of pre-sale products in the Tmall flagship store were sold out within 4 seconds on the launch day.
In 2019 "Double 11", blind boxes became the focus of the entire network, and young consumers broke out with amazing purchasing power.
According to the "Post-95 Player Chopping Power List" released by Tmall International in 2019, 200,000 consumers in my country spend more than 20,000 yuan on blind boxes every year.
This year, just one series of Molly products generated revenue of 456 million yuan for Bubble Mart.
Taking advantage of the blind box economy, Bubble Mart and other related companies have flourished in the capital market.
On December 11, 2020, Bubble Mart was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The stock price opened sharply higher on the first day of listing, and rose by more than 100% at the opening. The market value once exceeded HK$100 billion, and finally closed at HK$69/share, an increase of 79.22 %.
Bubble Mart is not "short of money".
At that time, Bao Fan, chairman of Huaxing Capital, founding partner and chief investment officer of the fund, told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "Bubble Mart does not need to burn money like Internet companies. The company's cash flow is very good, such a company. In fact, there is not much reason to take money from institutions. The Bubble Mart project is more about competition between institutions. Everyone's money is money. The difference is that in addition to money, institutions can also help the company. What resources are available."
According to the exclusive data provided by Tianyancha to the reporter of Securities Daily, as of January 26, there were more than 2,600 enterprises in my country whose names or business scope included "trendy toys, trendy toys, and blind boxes", of which over 89% were established in 5 Within this year, more than 1,700 trendy game-related companies will be added in 2021 alone.
Major brands are also accelerating their efforts to seize offline space. According to statistics, in Beijing and Shanghai alone, there will be more than 1,300 new Chaowan stores in the first half of 2021.
In the primary market, the blind box economy has also become a sweet pastry in the eyes of capital.
According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, more than 50 trendy game brands will receive financing in 2021, including Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Sequoia China, etc.
例如，2021年8月份，潮玩品牌ToyCity完成近亿元A+轮融资；2021年9月份，潮玩品牌52TOYS宣布完成4亿元C轮融资，由前海母基金和国中资本联合领投；2021年11月份，潮玩品牌模言文化完成数千万元Pre-A轮融资，由不二资本独家投资；2021年12月份，潮玩平台潮玩族获得来自红杉中国、高榕资本领投的近亿美元融资；同月，山海潮玩获得近500万元融资，彼时其成立尚不足一年。
中国社会科学院国情调查与大数据研究中心发布的《2021中国潮流玩具市场发展报告》显示，预计2022年以盲盒、手办为代表的中国潮玩经济市场规模将达478亿元。艾媒咨询发布的报告也显示，预计到2022年、2023年，我国潮玩行业市场规模将分别达到476.8亿元、574.6亿元。
盲盒怎能盲监管？
必须正视的是，原本小众的盲盒市场已逐渐变了味道，当商家们发现盲盒这个流量密码后，盲盒成了一个筐，什么都能往里装。除最初的玩具外，食品、美妆、文具、服装甚至租车等多个领域都刮起了“盲盒风”。
2020年底，河南博物院推出“考古盲盒”；2021年4月份，多家在线旅游平台推出“机票盲盒”，吸引超2000万用户参与抢购；随后，市场上流行起了“生鲜盲盒”“饮料盲盒”“文具盲盒”，甚至还出现了“宠物盲盒”“脱单盲盒”。
盲盒经济无序扩张，疯狂的交易场景频繁出现。据相关媒体报道，有小学生为抽到“文具盲盒”隐藏款，连续购买装有24支笔的套装20套，花费2000余元；2021年5月份，志愿者在四川成都一快递点拦截了160多个“宠物盲盒”，里面的宠物大多奄奄一息，有的甚至已经死去。
“在购买盲盒的过程中，消费者往往存在‘以小博大’的心理。而盲盒内容考验的是商家的信誉和道德，有些商家为了赚钱根本没有道德可言。”一位行业分析师向《证券日报》记者表示，盲盒的性质决定了商品售出后无法退货，导致消费者没有后悔的余地。
艾媒咨询数据显示，超过三成受访网民认为，盲盒噱头过大，产品本身缺乏实用性；超过两成用户认为，产品价格不合理。
在这样的背景下，《指引》出台，要求商家明确盲盒抽取规则。盲盒经营者应公示商品种类、抽盒规则、商品投放数量、隐藏款抽取概率等信息，充分告知消费者，并保留完整的概率设定、抽取结果、发放情况记录以备查。鼓励设定保底机制。鼓励盲盒经营者公示标准，当同一消费者在抽取同一系列盲盒商品支付达到一定金额或者抽取达到一定次数时，提供合理的途径使其可以获得隐藏款商品或者整套系列商品。
此外，《指引》对具体盲盒经营活动提出了倡导性建议。比如，盲盒内商品的实际价值应与售卖价格基本相当，单个盲盒的售价一般不超过200元。
值得一提的是，《指引》还引入了未成年人保护机制，要求盲盒经营者不得向8周岁以下的未成年人销售盲盒。向8周岁以上未成年人销售盲盒商品，应通过线上线下等不同方式确认监护人同意。
上海市市场监管局竞争处副处长吴艳东表示，“盲盒的基本属性是以娱乐为主，主要是为盲盒爱好者提供一种‘小确幸’，价值过高就脱离了娱乐属性。”
对此，泡泡玛特相关负责人表示，一个健康有序的潮玩市场不仅有利于保障消费者权益，也将为泡泡玛特营造良好的发展空间。对于《指引》中提到的建议，下一步将积极配合监管部门，根据《指引》的精神逐步探索可执行落地的具体方案。
盲盒泡沫破灭了吗？
盲盒就像是围城，有的企业拼命想进去，而有的企业正在极力摆脱这一标签。泡泡玛特CEO王宁不止一次在公开场合强调，泡泡玛特是一家潮玩企业，并非单纯的盲盒机构。去年6月份，泡泡玛特推出珍藏系列大娃，售价高达千元以上，并打出“年轻人的第一件收藏品”的口号；近日，泡泡玛特与北京市朝阳公园达成合作，将试水主题公园，王宁告诉《证券日报》记者，该主题公园计划于2023年开业。
盲盒经济似乎已经开始疲软。一位投资人告诉记者，最疯狂的时候，哪怕是刚刚成立的盲盒品牌都不愁资金，“机构们都想投出第二个泡泡玛特，市场普遍认为，潮玩赛道不会只有一家头部企业，52TOYS、十二栋文化、寻找独角兽等品牌都有机会。但随着盲盒领域乱象频出，市场上关于盲盒的投资动作已经开始变谨慎了。”
二级市场上，作为市场风向标的泡泡玛特，虽然近一年业绩增速较快，但股价却缩水严重。业绩方面，营收增速有所放缓，毛利率有所下滑。2021年上半年，泡泡玛特毛利率为63%，而2019年、2020年公司毛利率分别为71.2%、68.7%。
安信国际证券研报指出，盲盒存在的短板及风险包括：政策监管风险、山寨风险、用户流失风险及市场分散、竞争激烈。
该研报指出，爆款产品会在短时间内带来销量的快速增长，但如果不能持续推出新的系列产品，玩家可能会逐渐失去热情。同时，IP孵化周期长、投入大，以泡泡玛特的自有IP产品为例，从艺术家提供二维草图开始，到批量制作、落实市场推广方案，一款产品需要耗时8个月之久。若涉及IP之间的跨界合作或外部IP，在原有基础上还需增加2个月至9个月的筹备和审核时间。
“最大的担忧是，强监管下的上市难。过去两年盲盒市场野蛮生长，可以预见监管加强是必然趋势，未来打着潮玩噱头的盲盒公司是否还能独立上市，是一个未知数，如果无法上市就意味着资金退出存在风险。”上述投资人表示，此外，现在市场上不错的潮玩标的都经过了多轮融资，已经不算便宜，二级市场能否买单也是未知数。
“泡泡玛特股价回撤，是盲盒、潮玩行业回归理性的一个侧写。”上述分析师表示，盲盒作为新兴产业，势必要经历市场的考验，对此也不必过度解读。
(证券日报)