牛年加油虎年不愁！油价或将“二连涨”，一箱多花12元
中新经纬1月29日电 (吴晓薇)29日24时，国内成品油价调整窗口将再度开启。这是春节前国内成品油调价的最后一个时间窗口，市场预计油价调整大概率上涨。
资料图 中新经纬 摄
本次调价过后，2022年成品油调价或将呈现“两涨零跌零搁浅”格局。
1月17日24时，今年国内成品油价首轮调整窗口正式开启。据国家发改委公布的数据，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别提高345元、330元。
虽然国际油价于27日下跌，WTI 3月原油期货收跌0.74美元，跌幅0.85%，报86.61美元/桶；布伦特3月原油期货收跌0.62美元，跌幅0.69%，报89.34美元/桶。
但部分机构基于2022年经济增长预期，认为2022年原油市场需求会较2021年每天上升350万桶，恢复至2019年的水平。
卓创资讯分析师孟鹏认为，本周期内，国际原油价格整体呈现出强劲上涨走势，国内测算的原油变化率处在正值高位，本周六24时，国内成品油零售限价将再次上调。
孟鹏提到，受供应紧缺以及地缘风险等因素影响，本计价周期内国际原油价格整体呈现出强劲上涨走势，虽然期间一度出现连续三日的下滑，但幅度有限，原油变化率依旧处在正值高位，本周期国内成品油零售限价上调已是板上钉钉。
金联创分析师韩政己预计，俄乌冲突短期内对于原油油价的溢价影响预期将在3-5美元左右，若冲突进一步升级，油价或将获得更为强劲的提振，溢价有望将达到5-10美元左右。
国际方面，因OPEC+闲置产能紧张和需求强劲包括摩根士丹利在内的多家银行和分析师预计，油价将在今年晚些时候突破每桶100美元。
摩根大通表示，紧张局势有可能导致油价出现“实质性飙升”，并指出如果油价上升到每桶150美元，今年上半年全球GDP增长年率将降至仅0.9%，同时通胀率将翻倍至7.2%。
According to the calculation of Zhuochuang Information, as of the close of January 25, the reference crude oil change rate on the 7th working day in China was 6.51%. It is expected that gasoline and diesel will increase by 285 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to an increase of 92# gasoline by 0.22 yuan/liter. 0# Diesel increased by 0.24 yuan / liter.
According to Wang Tao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, 89# gasoline rose 0.23 yuan, 92# gasoline rose 0.24 yuan, 95# gasoline rose 0.25 yuan, and 0# car diesel rose 0.26 yuan.
According to the estimation of the 50L capacity of the car fuel tank, filling a tank of No. 92 gasoline will increase the cost of purchasing oil by about 12 yuan.
If you run 2,000 kilometers a month, the model will consume 8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers.
After the price adjustment, the fuel cost of private cars will increase by about 38.49 yuan compared with the previous round.
Longzhong Information analyst Li Yan believes that if the current rising trend of international oil prices wants to turn around, we need to wait for new bad guidance to appear, otherwise the characteristics of high highs and easy rises and hard falls may continue in the short term, and we cannot rule out continuing to explore. possibility.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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