本轮猪周期自2018年5月开启以来已经持续44个月，周期顶点和底部的猪价巨大的价差导致A股上市猪企交出的业绩成绩差表现千差万别。

　　从部分头部猪企披露的2021年业绩预告来看，目前全行业亏损几乎成为定局。1月25日晚间，天邦股份(002124.SZ)预计2021年净利首亏，预计亏损35亿-40亿元。此前，千亿猪企温氏股份(300498.SZ)预计2021年业绩亏损高达130亿-138亿元；“猪茅”牧原股份(002714.SZ)也出现了第三、第四季度单季度连续亏损的情形。

　　随着头部猪企业绩出现首亏，猪周期降至底部已毫无争议。但市场关于对本轮周期拐点究竟何时出现仍存巨大分歧。

供给端依然充裕，周期拐点难下定论

　　根据天邦股份(002124.SZ)披露的业绩预告，公司预计2021年全年净亏损35亿-40亿元，而上年同期为盈利32.4亿元。

　　在上市猪企接二连三地交出预亏业绩预告时，市场对拐点到来的预期也存在巨大分歧。一方观点认为，拐点临近，将于今年二季度出现；也有观点认为2023年才是拐点到来的年份；还有极少数人士认为拐点在2024年才会出现。

　　能繁母猪存栏量是决定生猪产能的核心指标之一，其主要代表潜在供给，即远期供给是否还会增长，当该指标同比见顶回落时点，逻辑预期改善领先于供需结构改善即猪价见底时点。

　　数据显示，全国能繁母猪存栏量在2021年6月份达到年内峰值4564万头后，受猪价回落养殖场主动调减产能等多方面因素影响，7月-12月，该数据出现连续6个月回落，累计回落约6.9%。

　　供给与需求是猪肉价格涨跌的根本因素，仅观察能繁母猪存栏量是不够的。在华安证券农业、中小盘首席分析师王莺看来，多因素共振下2022年国内生猪供给或有小幅增长，或导致二季度出现本轮猪周期拐点的概率不大。

　　"If we look at the reversal of the cycle, the supply of the whole industry cannot increase. But we have noticed that, first of all, since October, although the price of pigs has rebounded after the rebound, the positive replenishment has not declined, which has a negative impact on the process of production capacity reduction. Second, from the first quarter of 2021, breeding enterprises will start to eliminate ternary sows with relatively low breeding efficiency, and supplement the pens for binary sows. In theory, the breeding efficiency of binary sows is about 30% higher than that of ternary sows , which means that starting from the first quarter of 2022, the industry's breeding efficiency will continue to improve, which may increase the supply scale," Wang Ying said. The annual import scale is about 5 million tons, both of which are at the highest level in history, and the slaughter scale of most listed pig companies in 2022 will increase year-on-year on an average year-on-year basis."

　　Specifically, let’s look at the slaughter plan of the top listed pig companies.

In the whole year of 2021, the number of live pigs sold by Muyuan, Wen's and New Hope will be 40.263 million, 13.21 million and 9.97 million respectively, all of which are year-on-year increases.

According to the announcement, Muyuan Co., Ltd. has reserved more than 100 million head of land resources for breeding capacity, and the plan for slaughtering in 2022 is about 60 million heads; Wen's Co., Ltd.'s preliminary plan for slaughtering in 2022 is 18 million-20 million heads; New Hope said that it has been completed. The scale of the fattening farm has reached 6 million heads.

　　It is worth noting that Wen's shares stated in the survey summary in December that it is optimistic that the price of pigs may enter the next round of upward channel after the second half of 2022; It may take 2023 to enter the upside channel of the next cycle.

Listed pig companies will

face cost pressures

　　Recently, the reluctance to sell on the breeding side and the recovery of the demand side have led to a significant rebound in the national pig price in the fourth quarter of 2021. The price rebound has increased the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish the stalls, and the rate of reduction of the production capacity of reproductive sows has begun to slow down significantly, which has led to the process of reducing production capacity. .

　　With the national pig-grain ratio falling below 6:1 again, pig prices continue to decline, and the operation and management of listed pig companies in 2022 will be tested.

The first financial reporter combed the investor relations minutes of major listed pig companies and found that cost control and adjustment of slaughter planning are the priorities of listed pig companies in 2022.

　　"On the one hand, compared with retail farming, cost factors such as disease prevention, depreciation of fixed assets, and labor costs in large-scale pig farming enterprises have a more prominent impact on business performance. On the other hand, performance losses cannot provide stable cash for enterprises. The pre-production expansion plan will continue to put pressure on the financial side." A Shanghai private equity fund person told the First Financial Reporter, "It is expected that in 2022, listed pig companies will still face the stage of oversupply, and their performance will continue to lose money. Next year Or continue to grind the bottom for a second time to further reduce production capacity."

　　With the national pig-grain ratio falling below 6:1 again, pig prices continue to decline, and the operation and management of listed pig companies in 2022 will be tested.

As of the evening of January 25, only two leading pig companies, Wen's Co., Ltd., Muyuan Co., Ltd., and Tianbang Co., Ltd., have disclosed their 2021 performance forecast.

Among them, Wen's shares recorded the first loss in performance and temporarily became the "pre-loss king" of the two cities. The company expects a net loss of 13 billion to 13.8 billion yuan for the whole year, a decrease of 275% to 286% compared with the same period of the previous year. Profit of 7.426 billion yuan.

During the reporting period, Wen's Co., Ltd. made a preliminary provision for impairment of about 2.5 billion yuan for the consumable biological assets and productive biological assets currently in stock.

　　In terms of Muyuan shares, according to the third-quarter results and the annual performance forecast, the loss of "Pigmao" in the fourth quarter of 2021 attributable to the mother's net profit is about 700 million-2.2 billion yuan.

　　The main reason for the loss of listed pig companies' performance is still the sharp drop in pig prices in 2021.

In 2021, the decline and speed of domestic live pig prices will exceed market expectations, and the lowest price will drop to 10 yuan/kg, which will fall below the industry-wide breeding cost.

　　According to data from China Pig Network, as of January 25, the price of ternary live pigs outside the country was reported at 14.35 yuan/kg, which is a new low since the rebound in pig prices in October 2021.

　　"Looking at the historical data, the downward cycle of pig prices from October 2011 to April 2014, the bottom consolidation and loss time was more than two years, because there was no serious epidemic during that time period. We believe that the pig price in 2022 may be It fluctuated repeatedly around 14 and 15 yuan, and the cycle continued to grind the bottom. Before May this year, the number of live pigs to slaughter increased, but after the Spring Festival, the demand fell. At this stage, the price of pigs will continue to drop, whether it will fall below the lowest point in 2021. It is still difficult to judge." Wang Ying told reporters.

　　In the secondary market, the divergence between pig company stock prices and pork prices is bridging.

According to the data, on December 1, 2021, the A-share pig sector stocks rose by an average of 10%, outperforming the major stock indexes, but the price of ternary pork in the country dropped from 18.24 yuan/kg to 16.48 yuan/kg that month.

Since January 2022, the national pig price has continued to fall, and the stock price of the pig sector has also entered into adjustment, with 25 pork stocks down by more than 1% on average.

　　The market's expectation of the pig sector speculation is the main reason for the divergence between pig prices and stock prices.

"Judging from the previous rounds of pig cycles, the pork sector has been hyped every year based on expectations. Taking 2011 as an example, the price of pigs peaked in September of that year, and in 2012 and 2013, the market had hyped expectations of cycle reversals. , the cycle ushered in a real reversal in 2014, and the sector went out of the trend." She told reporters, "At each stage, the market will choose to intervene in different targets based on different expectations. From the perspective of historical valuation, the entire pig sector is currently in a The relatively low valuation is something to watch.”