Securities Times reporter Sun Xiangfeng

　　A-shares continued the callback trend since the new year.

On January 25, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.67%.

The Shanghai Composite Index recorded its biggest one-day drop since last year, and the ChiNext Index fell by 10.46% during the year, and fell below the 3,000-point integer mark.

　　Some institutional sources interviewed by Securities Times reporters believe that the short-term external market has become the most important factor to disturb A-shares. Whether it is the Fed's interest rate hike or geopolitical fluctuations, it has had an impact on market sentiment.

However, many institutions believe that many stocks have entered a range where performance and valuation are more matched, and the price-performance ratio is gradually emerging. Moreover, the government still has many tools for stabilizing growth that have not been used, so there is no need to panic at the current position.

　　A shares struggle to "break through the new year"

　　Since the beginning of the year, affected by the expectation of overseas interest rate hikes, the yield of US bonds has continued to rise. At the same time, geopolitical risks have fermented, and overseas markets have fluctuated greatly. Among the three major US stock indexes, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have fallen respectively since the beginning of the year. 5.4%, 11.4%, 7.5%.

　　In the context of the accelerating global capital flow, there is a certain risk of weakening resonance between A shares and US stocks.

Affected by this, market sentiment has weakened recently, and risk appetite has shrunk significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 5.68% since the beginning of the year, and individual stocks in the high-value track have fallen significantly, while areas related to stable growth have been relatively resistant to decline.

　　"The reason for the decline is mainly due to investors' expectations of rising risk-free interest rates and falling corporate profits, as well as changes in investor risk appetite caused by geopolitics." Wang Feng, head of investment advisory strategy at Guotai Junan Fund, said in an interview with a Securities Times reporter.

　　Specifically, domestic inflation in the United States is high, and expectations of monetary policy tightening continue to rise. Investors are worried that the tightening of US interest rates will drive up the risk-free interest rates in various countries; from the perspective of corporate profits, some of the high-boom tracks last year were due to the high base effect and domestic The growth pressure has increased, and everyone's expectations for this year's growth rate have been lowered, which has led to a correction in the sector, and the market has been waiting for stronger stimulus from the policy side, which has not been realized in the short term, so the new market main line has not yet appeared, and the market has appeared since the beginning of the year. The phenomenon of continuous callback, the market sentiment is also relatively sluggish. Yesterday, the expected impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was superimposed, and the market fell sharply.

　　China Merchants Fund also believes that since mid-December last year, the market has continued to adjust under the influence of many negative factors such as overseas liquidity shocks and real estate credit risks.

Yesterday, the market accelerated its downward trend under the contagion of overseas sentiment and fell back to a stage low.

　　中长期看，A股仍是机会大于风险。华夏基金指出，虽然市场在波动过程中持续走弱，但本轮指数的调整幅度和持续时间相对有限，从性质上判断，大概率类似于2021年2月底和2020年3月初的下跌，持续性不会特别强。预计节后随着风险偏好的修复，特别是稳增长政策效果的显现，市场仍有反弹机会。

　　市场有望企稳反弹

　　持续的回调冲击投资者持股信心，但从多数机构投资者的反馈看，风险释放之后，机会反而可能更加凸显。

　　国金证券首席策略分析师艾熊峰就分析，从历史来看，地缘政治对全球风险偏好影响并不持久，随着美联储加息，缩表的预期逐步趋于稳定，海外市场或企稳，海外不利因素的解除，叠加国内政策友好环境，A股市场或迎来由守转攻的阶段。

　　“我们认为市场底已经接近。”王峰坦言，从市场和政策面看，春节后，市场活跃资金会重新开始寻找机会，刺激政策也会逐步升级、兑现，市场有望企稳反弹。

　　王峰称，从股债对比框架看，中证500指数已在均值以下2个标准差位置，代表股票性价比很高；从历史数据角度看，目前并没有系统性风险，反而是胜率较高的时期。

　　颐和银丰投资高级研究员杨勇也表示：“从目前点位看，距离近两年的市场底应该还是有些差距的，但距离已经不远了，安全边际已经相对较高。”

　　杨勇认为，投资者目前应在市场上积极寻找新能源汽车、光伏风电等产业链高景气赛道，股价明显超跌导致估值相对较低的公司。另外就是一季度业绩有望实现较高增速的公司，比如基建等标的。还有一些困境反转标的，原料、运输等成本价格趋于稳定，带来盈利能力改善的下游公司。

　　多数机构人士普遍表示，当下投资者不应过度悲观，应积极应对市场变化。

　　蜂巢基金研究总监吴穹表示：“市场下跌可能由于外部情绪引起，也可能是由于资金规避春节长假的不确定性而选择卖出，但我们认为很多股票已经进入业绩和估值较为匹配的区间，性价比逐步显现，而且政府还有很多稳增长的工具没有动用，当前位置不用恐慌。”

　　“从投资者应对上看，忍受波动，投资等待是获取收益的关键。”王峰表示，偏股混合型基金指数16年累计收益超11倍，但在192个交易月中有72个交易月都是负收益，有近四成时间都在默默承受下跌的煎熬。敢于在关键时刻布局，并坚定等待，有助于获取更高收益。但在今年的投资中，因为极端风格的分化将收敛，投资者应该保持更均衡的持仓，有助于跟上市场风格变化。