The IMF blows up the Government's expectations of a rapid recovery and forecasts high inflation until 2023

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)

. Without in the General State Budgets the Executive foresaw a GDP growth of 6.5% in 2021 and 7% in 2022, the IMF reduces those figures to 4.9% and 5.8%, respectively. It is not as bad as what was estimated by the Bank of Spain just five weeks ago (4.5% and 5.4%), but it is a considerable reduction, especially if one takes into account that just three months ago the Fund foresaw a growth of 6.4% for Spain in 2022.

These estimates are included in the review of

', presented today in Washington by the Fund.

The downward revision of growth in Spain is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather it is situated in the context of the world economy, which is being hit by the prolongation of the Covid-19 pandemic and by a disruption in the supply chain. world supply that has unleashed an inflationary spiral.

The IMF has abandoned its optimism about prices just nine months ago, when its chief economist, Gita Gopinath, declared to ELMUNDO.es last April his conviction that inflation was temporary. In its new forecasts,

Although it does not break down its data by country, inflation affects practically all countries equally, so there is no reason to think that it will suffer less than the others that phenomenon. In fact, the document indicates that, in 2021, the euro countries, including Spain, have been more vulnerable to the rise in the prices of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas).

Thus, the prospects for a quick exit from the Covid-19 crisis have been ruined by three culprits: Senator Joe Manchin, the omicron variant, and inflation.

Manchin because he single-handedly torpedoed Joe Biden's 'Build Black Better' (BBB) ​​plan, worth at least 1.75 billion dollars (1.55 billion euros), of investment in energy transition and expansion of the Podium of Welfare. The IMF does not mention it explicitly, but it does clearly state that

, and, by extension, on the world economy. The omicron because it has again paralyzed the world economy by breaking supply chains and forcing new confinements. And inflation because it is reaching levels not seen in decades and, furthermore, it is going to last much longer than expected.

For that reason, the institution cuts global growth this year from 4.9% forecast just three months ago to 4.4%.

The US will grow in 2022 1.2 points less than expected, according to the Fund, to 4%.

But practically all the big countries see their growth cut: Germany, Canada and China, by eight tenths;

Spain, in six;

France and Italy in four;

and Great Britain in three.

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