After the RRR cuts and structural interest rate cuts have been implemented one after another——
How much room is left in the monetary policy toolbox
Our reporter Chen Guojing
Recently, RRR cuts and structural interest rate cuts have come one after another.
From December last year to January this year, the loan market quoted rate (LPR) has been lowered for two consecutive months.
In December last year, the central bank cut the RRR by 0.5 percentage points across the board, releasing about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds.
In 2022, how will monetary policy continue to exert its force, and is there still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts?
A few days ago, the Economic Daily reporter interviewed industry experts.
Combining volume and price
"The magnitude of the RRR cut and the structural interest rate cut and the intensity of the operation fully reflect the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's 'actively launching policies that are conducive to economic stability, and policy efforts should be appropriately advanced'." Chief Fixed Income Analysis of Everbright Securities Shi Zhangxu said that the combination of monetary policy, volume and price can not only directly promote the decline of loan interest rates, but also release a clear policy signal of stabilizing credit and stabilizing the economy.
Since December last year, a series of monetary policies conducive to economic stability have been introduced one after another.
For example, on December 6 last year, the central bank cut the RRR by 0.5 percentage points; on December 20 last year, the 1-year LPR dropped by 5 basis points; on January 20 this year, the 1-year LPR fell for the second consecutive month, and the 5-year LPR fell for the second consecutive month. The above LPR fell for the first time after 20 consecutive months of "no action".
Zhang Xu believes that these measures optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, help ease the interest rate constraints imposed by banks in the process of granting loans, and solve the so-called "no demand" problem.
In addition, by the end of 2021, structural monetary policy tools such as carbon emission reduction support tools and special re-lending to support the clean and efficient utilization of coal have been implemented, which will also help to enhance the stability of total credit growth.
With the emergence and accumulation of the effects of various policies, the lending of financial institutions to the real economy is expected to increase.
"The active action of monetary policy and the force ahead will help boost market confidence." Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said that the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase rates have been lowered, and corporate loan interest rates have been reduced through LPR transmission. , promote the decline of bond interest rates, promote the steady and moderate decline of the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises, help to stimulate the financing needs of market players, enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, support the issuance of government bonds and local bonds, stabilize the economic market, and maintain internal and external balance. balance.
In 2022, "stability" will still be the main tone of monetary policy. How to balance the relationship between "stability" and "advance"?
"Before the downward pressure on the economy is fundamentally relieved, 'advance' must serve 'stability', policies that are not conducive to 'stability' are not introduced, and more policies that are conducive to 'stability' are introduced, so as to promote stability." The People's Bank of China Vice President Liu Guoqiang said that the first is to make sufficient efforts to expand the monetary policy toolbox to keep the total amount stable and avoid credit collapse. , but also to take the initiative, in accordance with the requirements of the new development concept, take the initiative to find good projects, do effective additions, optimize the economic structure; the third is to push forward.
Hurry up to do things, operate forward-looking, walk in front of the market curve, and respond to the general concerns of the market in a timely manner.
Monetary policy is dominated by me
In 2022, the monetary policy will still adhere to the principle of stability and self-maintenance, and grasp the strength and rhythm of the prudent monetary policy according to the domestic situation.
Recently, the monetary policies of major developed economies have begun to adjust, and the market has strong expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet.
However, my country's successive RRR cuts and structural interest rate cuts have caused a "misalignment" between the direction of monetary policy and major developed economies.
"The monetary policies of the two countries often appear 'dislocation'." Zhang Xu said that after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in 2020, China's monetary policy is far ahead of the United States.
In the past 10 years or so, there have been periods when the monetary policies of China and the United States changed in the same direction, and there were times when they went against each other.
The current "dislocation" is because my country's monetary policy is "me-based", and its future orientation and the timing of the next RRR cut and "interest rate cut" mainly depend on the fundamentals of the country's economy.
The Fed's monetary policy, while influential, is not a key factor.
"China and the United States are in different policy stages." Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said that the domestic economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control are ahead of the United States. Accurate quality and efficiency, and the Fed is gradually getting rid of unconventional policies in special times and recovering excess liquidity.
Different stages have differences in the operation of monetary policy.
In general, policy adjustments in developed economies have limited impact on my country.
Sun Guofeng believes that my country's macro economy is large and resilient. Since the response to the epidemic, it has insisted on implementing a normal monetary policy. Instead of flooding, it has done a good job in cross-cycle design, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and financial support for the real economy. Stability, greater autonomy and stability of the financial system, and a stable RMB exchange rate are expected to help mitigate and address external risks.
There is still room for control
在近期结构性降息之后，市场关注下一步是否还有降息或降准的空间。
“在经历去年两次降准，去年底和今年初的‘降息’之后，货币政策在稳定经济增长方面仍然具有空间。”中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏认为，疫情以来，面对主要发达经济体超宽松货币政策，我国货币政策保持稳健，不仅有效服务了疫情应对和经济增长，也为后续货币政策操作留下了空间。
“5个季度宏观杠杆率的下降，为未来货币政策创造了空间，杠杆率越低空间越大。”刘国强表示。央行公布的数据显示，2021年末，宏观杠杆率为272.5%，比上年末下降了7.7个百分点，保持基本稳定。刘国强认为，从国际上看，我国疫情防控形势较好，经济增长韧性较足，预计今年我国经济增速仍会快于主要发达经济体，为未来更好保持宏观杠杆率水平创造了条件。预计2022年宏观杠杆率仍会保持基本稳定。当前宏观杠杆率持续下降，为未来金融体系加大对小微企业、科技创新、绿色发展的支持创造了空间。
但有空间不代表货币政策会“大水漫灌”。娄飞鹏表示，国内经济面临下行压力，存在通货膨胀预期，以及美联储等央行加息预期增强，意味着我国货币政策难以大幅度调整。
“降准之后，当前金融机构平均存款准备金率是8.4%。无论是与其他发展中经济体还是与我们历史上的存款准备金率相比，应该说存款准备金率的水平都不高，接下来进一步调整的空间变小了。”刘国强说，但仍然还有一定的空间，可以根据经济金融运行情况以及宏观调控的需要使用。
展望今年，娄飞鹏认为，我国货币政策在保持总量稳定的同时，重点通过结构性政策工具，发挥结构引导作用，提高服务经济的质效。绿色发展、小微企业、科技创新等领域将是货币政策重点发力的领域。
“一年之计在于春。”张旭认为，当前更应“办好自己的事”。在前期政策落地后，对于资金供求双方而言，此时宜早做贷款计划，尽早将贷款落实，以充分享受当前政策红利。