Zhongxin Finance, January 25 (Reporter Li Jinlei) "RMB has become the fourth most active currency in the world" rushed to the hot search.

　　According to the latest data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), in December 2021, the share of RMB in international payments rose to fourth.

This is also the first time since August 2015 that the global ranking of RMB international payments has surpassed the Japanese yen and ranks among the top four active currencies in the world.

　　Overtaking the Japanese Yen, the Renminbi has become the fourth most active currency in the world. Why?

What does it mean again?

How should we view this change?

Tan Yaling, President of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, was interviewed by the "China New Observation" column of Chinanews.com to interpret this.

Excerpts from the interview are as follows:

Chinanews.com reporter: According to SWIFT data, in December 2021, the proportion of RMB in global payments rose to 2.7%, surpassing the Japanese yen (2.58%) for the first time since August 2015, ranking among the top four active currencies in the world.

What is the reason?

what does this mean?

Tan Yaling:

First, it shows that in the face of the impact of the epidemic and the pressure of anti-globalization, China's economic situation has recovered steadily, and economic growth and foreign trade are relatively good. Especially in 2021, China's economic scale will exceed 114 trillion yuan, and foreign trade will grow by 20%. % or more, foreign trade is developing well, which is an important factor for the improvement of the ranking of RMB payment usage.

　　Second, it shows that China has made important progress in the "Belt and Road" in recent years. The countries along the "Belt and Road" are important platforms for the use of RMB payment, which helps to expand the space for RMB settlement.

　　Third, the share of RMB in international payments has risen to fourth, which is related to China's own efforts and the relatively high reliability and credibility of the RMB. China's efforts in economic reform and financial opening have been more recognized. .

In addition, the currency instability of major developed countries is relatively strong. With the appreciation of the RMB, more countries are willing to accept RMB settlement.

　　On the other hand, the yen itself is in decline in the international monetary system. The Japanese economy has not been very good in the past two years, and the epidemic situation in Japan is relatively serious, which will limit the liquidity and utilization rate of the yen.

The Japanese yen is in a downward cycle, and the RMB is in a rising cycle, and the RMB has been able to surpass the Japanese yen in the ranking.

Data map.

Chinanews.com reporter: RMB ranks among the top four active currencies in the world. There are views that the RMB is more popular, which is a leap of historical significance. There are also views that the proportion of RMB in global payments is still closely related to the size of China's economy and trade. There is no match. The top three dollar, euro, and pound account for 40.51%, 36.65%, and 5.89%, respectively. How should we view this change?

Tan Yaling:

The ranking of the RMB in international payments has risen to fourth. This is just a small step in the internationalization of the RMB, not that the internationalization of the RMB has come.

We need to maintain a peaceful mind and view this change in an objective and rational manner.

　　First, from the perspective of the international payment share, at present, the proportion of RMB is still very small, especially compared with the international payment share of the US dollar and the euro, there is still a big gap.

　　Second, from the perspective of qualifications, the first three currencies are all freely convertible currencies and international currencies, while the RMB is still a local currency, not a freely convertible currency, only the qualification of the special drawing rights (SDR) for the balance of payments .

This is the biggest difference.

　　Therefore, we cannot be blindly optimistic.

In particular, the ranking of RMB in international payments has risen. An important background is that the RMB is appreciating. From last year to the present, the RMB has fluctuated and appreciated, from the era of 6.5 yuan to the era of 6.3 yuan, the relative appreciation of the currency, and the willingness of other countries to use RMB for settlement. will strengthen.

　　However, the appreciation of the renminbi also has a suppressing effect on China's economy, which is not conducive to foreign trade. Moreover, foreign trade enterprises are also faced with rising raw material prices, rising shipping prices, and rising labor prices. Under the superposition of several factors, the actual profits of foreign trade enterprises are increasing. few.

Therefore, foreign trade enterprises have to prepare for a big hurdle this year.

The staff counts the currency.

(Data map) Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

Chinanews.com reporter: Since the second half of 2021, the RMB has appreciated to a certain extent, and it has now risen above 6.34.

How do you predict the RMB exchange rate trend in 2022?

How should companies respond?

Tan Yaling:

This year's exchange rate trend, two-way fluctuations may be more obvious.

Among the two-way fluctuations, the correction of the partial depreciation of the RMB may be prominent.

After the excessive appreciation of the RMB, it is expected that there will be a repairing market.

　　这里有一个比较大的麻烦就是，今年美联储或将采取更加激进的加息缩表组合以提振经济，如果美联储加息美元升值的话，可能对美国的经济或企业会带来不良影响，而且，今年是美国中期选举之年，所以美元贬值还存在着比较大的可能，这个风险是不可低估的。

　　可以看到，从年初走到现在，美元贬值的态势是非常明显的，美元指数下降。如果美元贬值的话，人民币就是偏升值了，所以这个风险我们还是要有所提防，避免外贸企业成本均衡点失调。

　　对于企业来说，要做好应对的准备，树立“风险中性”理念，避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为。

宁波港口一景。　沈颖俊 摄

中新网记者：数据还显示，2021年第三季度，人民币在全球外汇储备中的份额提高到2.66%，创下新高，居全球第五位。摩根士丹利研究部预测，预计到2030年，人民币有望成为仅次于美元和欧元的第三大储备货币。您觉得美元、欧元、人民币“三分天下”时代还有多远？

谭雅玲：

人民币目前还是本币，不是可自由兑换的货币。在不可自由兑换的前提下被融入了SDR，而且，国际支付和外汇储备中的份额提升，说明了人民币的信誉赢得了世界。

　　但是，我们还要有清醒的认识，人民币2%多的占比跟前几位的差距还是太多，所以，市场要避免情绪化，回归基本常识和基本逻辑。国际是有标准的，国情是有个性的，个性并不代表国际的标准。

　　中国经济到现在为止发展得比较好，但面临周期性、结构性的风险压力。所以我们还是要理性看待，对自己的货币定位要有一个准确的判断，人民币要真正成为最终可自由兑换货币、国际化的货币，任重而道远。

　　中国要从发展中国家成为发达国家，奋斗的路途还十分遥远。促进人民币国际化，一方面要努力提升中国经济实力和人均水平，另一方面要不断完善金融外汇市场，扩大对外开放。(完)