公募基金2021年四季报陆续出炉,基金经理对银行股分歧增大。

  第一财经记者梳理发现,目前已披露的公募基金四季报中,区域性银行仍受到不少基金经理的青睐,但对此前估值相对较高的股份行分歧较为明显。以易方达张坤为例,其管理的多只产品在去年四季度减持了平安银行;中庚基金丘栋荣则在减持光大银行港股的同时,持续加仓苏农银行、常熟银行等农商行。

  近期陆续公布的银行业绩快报显示,银行2021年表现整体超出预期,其中城商行、农商行业绩增速尤为亮眼,二级市场上银行板块整体涨幅今年以来已超过6%。叠加货币政策环境宽松利于银行资产质量改善,机构对于银行股的未来表现普遍乐观。有分析人士认为,2022年一季度银行业绩仍有较强支撑,同期二级市场行情也有望持续,但二季度之后或将回归平稳。

有银行被偏爱,也有银行被减仓

  自去年三季度以来,机构加仓银行股的动作就备受市场关注,其中多家城商行、农商行进入各大基金重仓股行列。在近期披露的基金四季报中,不乏中庚基金丘栋荣等明星基金经理继续加仓银行股。

  早在去年三季报中,丘栋荣就表示重点配置四大方向,对A股和H股自上而下寻找投资机会,强调看好与制造业产业链相关、服务于实体经济的银行股,其认为这类公司经营稳健、基本面风险较小、估值极低、成长性较高。到了第四季度,丘栋荣在继续强调金融、地产机会的同时,将此类大盘价值股提升至煤炭、能源、资源类公司之前,成为四大配置方向中的首位。

  从前十大重仓股来看,丘栋荣管理的中庚价值品质一年持有期混合将持有的光大银行H股从1.11亿股减持至1.03亿股,同时将常熟银行加仓至前十大重仓股,最新持仓近6000万股,位列其第四大重仓股。此外,常熟银行也在去年四季度进入中庚价值灵动混合前十大重仓股行列,持股约1692万股,位列第四;中庚价值领航混合也增持常熟银行超过1500万股,最新持股数量为3782.15万股,仓位从第九提升至第四位。

  Sunong Bank's position in ZhongGeng Value Smart Mixed has increased by about 8.34 million shares compared with the third quarter. The latest position is close to 24.46 million shares, and the proportion has jumped from the eighth to the third largest stock; in the ZhongGeng small-cap value fund, Su The number of shares held by Agricultural Bank of China also increased from 40.2 million shares to about 60.36 million shares, and its proportion jumped from fifth to second-largest stock, with a market value of 6.12%.

Zhonggeng Value Pilot Mix held 61.1426 million shares of Sunong Bank in the third quarter, ranking the fourth largest holding stock, and remained unchanged in the fourth quarter.

It is worth noting that the mixed net worth of Zhonggeng Value Pilot slightly underperformed the performance comparison benchmark in the fourth quarter. Qiu Dongrong said in the quarterly report that in addition to the large retracement of the energy sector in a relatively short period of time, the poor performance of individual bank stocks holding positions is also not good. The fund has a negative contribution to relative performance.

From the perspective of the adjustment direction, this has not affected its increase in "regional bank stocks related to the manufacturing industry chain, serving the real economy and having unique competitive advantages".

  Another fund manager that has attracted much attention is Zhang Kun, the “first brother of public offering”. His actions to increase bank allocation in the third quarter have attracted widespread market attention, but in the fourth quarter, Zhang Kun turned to reduce the position of some bank stocks. .

Among them, E Fund high-quality enterprises held about 16.8 million shares of China Merchants Bank and 43 million shares of Ping An Bank during the three-year holding period in the third quarter. 10 million shares of Ping An Bank were reduced, and the market value ratio dropped to tenth place.

E Fund Blue Chip Selection also reduced its position in Ping An Bank in the fourth quarter, and its shareholding dropped from more than 200 million shares to 188 million shares, and its position ratio was still ranked tenth.

  In addition, although Xingquan Herun Hybrid managed by Xie Zhiyu of Xingquan Fund participated in the preferential placement of convertible bonds of Industrial Bank in the fourth quarter, the shares of Industrial Bank fell out of the top ten stocks of the fund.

In the third quarter of last year, Industrial Bank ranked the fifth-largest stock in the fund, holding 62.7234 million shares, accounting for 3.99% of the market value.

 After the "good start" of bank stocks, what will institutions think in 2022?

  Since the third quarter of last year, the bank's performance has continued to exceed expectations.

As of January 23, more than a dozen listed banks have disclosed their 2021 performance reports, of which more than 90% of the net profit attributable to the parent has increased by more than 20%. double improvement in asset quality.

With this support, the banking sector has risen sharply against the trend in the secondary market, with an increase of over 6% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (down 3.22% over the same period). Bank of Jiangsu rose by more than 15%, and seven banks including Bank of Hangzhou, Bank of Changshu and Bank of Nanjing also rose by more than 10%.

  From the perspective of valuation, the break-to-book ratio of bank stocks has also decreased with the recovery of the market, and the number of stocks with a PB (price-to-book ratio) lower than 1 times has dropped from 36 at the end of last year to 30.

Analysis by a number of institutions pointed out that with the improvement of the macro environment and the adjustment of the business structure of banks, the intermediate income business has formed a strong support for the performance and valuation of most banks.

At the same time, "steady growth" has improved the economic prosperity, the risk resolution of individual housing companies has been promoted in an orderly manner, and the industry's financing environment has been marginally relaxed.

Considering that the bank stock market is generally better at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, institutions are generally optimistic about the bank's market performance in the first quarter.

  Monetary policy expectations also continued to affect the performance of bank stocks.

Following easing policies such as the central bank’s comprehensive RRR cut by 0.5 percentage points and the 1-year MLF (Medium Lending Facility) interest rate cut by 10BP (basis points), the 1-year LPR (loan market quotation rate) was cut by 10BP on January 20, 5-year period. The above LPR also declined for the first time since April 2020.

Some analysts believe that after the interest rate cut, the bank's net interest margin will continue to be under pressure. According to the calculation of Zhongyuan Securities, with the addition of a 5BP drop in the one-year LPR in December last year, the direct impact on the bank's net interest margin is about 8BP.

However, considering that housing mortgage loans will benefit from lower interest rates and a "good start", most institutions are optimistic about the credit demand of banks in the first quarter.

  Guosen Securities Bank analyst Wang Jian believes that compared with the negative impact on the net interest margin, the reduction of interest rates is more critical to the benefits of bank credit costs.

On the one hand, reducing the loan interest rate can reduce the burden on borrowers and improve the quality of bank assets; on the other hand, monetary easing can promote economic growth and indirectly improve the quality of bank assets, while increasing the demand for bank credit.

Wang Jian said that the fluctuation of bank interest margins exceeding 10BP per year is already a big change, but the credit cost reduction brought about by the improvement of asset quality far exceeds this.

  With multiple benefits, foreign capital has recently scrambled to raise financial stocks.

Among the 29.197 billion yuan of net purchases of "smart funds" northbound funds this week, the net purchase of banking sector was close to 9.3 billion yuan, ranking first, of which China Merchants Bank alone received a net purchase of 4.773 billion yuan.

Guosheng Securities said that with the addition and increase of easing policies, the future demand of many banks may gradually improve.

Many other brokerages believe that the current low valuation level of the banking sector has fully reflected the market’s expectations for real estate credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn.

  Yan Meizhi, head of China Financial Industry Research at UBS, said a few days ago that although the net interest margin of the domestic banking industry will continue to be under pressure in 2022, the pressure will be more moderate than in 2021, and the growth rate of performance will also decline after a strong rebound in 2021. There has been a decline. It is comprehensively judged that bank stocks will be strong first and then weak in 2022. Bank stocks are optimistic about the market in the first quarter under the defensive advantage.

She also emphasized that the valuation differentiation of bank stocks will continue, especially as the interest rate center declines, the ROE (return on equity) of large banks will continue to decline, and she is optimistic about small and medium-sized banks with retail advantages.

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