□Lin Jiang

　　Guangdong Province has set an economic growth target of 5.5% for 2022, which is somewhat unexpected.

Affected by the epidemic, the national economic growth rate in 2020 is 2.3%, and it will recover to 8.1% in 2021, with an average of 5.2% in the two years. Guangdong has set the economic growth target for 2022 at 5.5%, which is already a not low figure.

　　In my opinion, Guangdong Province has determined the growth target of 5.5% mainly due to the following factors:

　　One is to judge the export situation.

From the analysis of the national situation, the contribution of exports to GDP is about 20%, and Guangdong, as a major foreign trade province with obvious export-oriented economy characteristics, the proportion of exports will be higher.

In 2021, Guangdong's export situation will be very good. Due to the serious epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries and regions, many local enterprises cannot normally receive orders for production. Guangdong benefits from the so-called "transfer order effect".

However, in 2022, as the epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries and regions flattens and factories resume production, the benefits of the above-mentioned "transferring effect" to Guangdong's foreign trade exports may be weakened.

　　The second is to judge the situation of investment in fixed assets.

On January 18, 2022, the People's Bank of China and the National Development and Reform Commission held press conferences successively, indicating that the central bank may further ease monetary policy and continue to stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects.

However, whether fixed asset investment can effectively stimulate local economic growth also depends on the abundance of local finances and the prosperity of the real estate market.

　　In this context, the government should introduce policies to encourage and stimulate residents' consumption based on provincial conditions.

　　The ideal situation is that Guangdong residents, especially those in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, generally have a high income level, and they are also willing to try new products and services, such as unmanned driving in the context of 5G, and application scenarios such as remote surgery It can be established in 2022, thereby guiding more investors and producers to invest in strategic emerging industries including artificial intelligence, big data, and biotechnology.

This in turn encourages and stimulates more R&D personnel to develop and innovate related new technologies, and finally form a relatively complete supply chain and production chain for Guangdong's strategic emerging industries. This is the "addition" of Guangdong's economy and belongs to Guangdong. The incremental effect of the economy.

As for the huge processing and manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta region, it is the basic business of Guangdong's economy. Over time, the processing and manufacturing processes may gradually migrate to low-cost areas. This is a "subtraction" faced by Guangdong's economy.

　　What we're trying to do is make addition faster than subtraction.

What's more, we still have the ability to increase the added value of the industry in the process of the above-mentioned "subtraction", which is the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing.

In today's rapid development of the digital economy, as long as the digitalization of the industry is realized, the traditional manufacturing industry can use digital technology and other means to improve the efficiency of the industry and the added value of products; and when Guangdong's economy is doing "addition", as long as the digital Industrialization will allow more strategic emerging industries to become pillar industries that promote Guangdong's economy.

Whether it is "subtraction" or "addition", it is inseparable from the support of consumers.

　　It is not difficult for us to draw the following conclusion: Guangdong Province has set the economic growth target of 5.5% in 2022, which is a realistic assessment made after fully considering the traction effect of the "troika" on Guangdong's economy.

In terms of Guangdong's already huge GDP base, if it can achieve an increase of 5.5%, it is quite a good result.

Of course, if changes in the external economic environment are more conducive to Guangdong's foreign trade exports, which will make Guangdong's economic report card more beautiful, for example, to achieve a growth of more than 6%, it will be a surprise to the people of the province.

　　So, how can we effectively stimulate consumption and stimulate domestic demand?

The first is to enhance consumer confidence.

By deepening reforms and expanding opening up, especially making full use of the opportunities for the integrated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, it is the current priority to create a good market economy prospect for Guangdong residents.

Guangzhou has been approved by the State Council as a pilot city for becoming an international consumption center. Through the pilot construction, we can summarize more successful experience in stimulating consumption, and then promote it to other cities in the province. It is worthy of people's expectations; secondly, it is necessary to further improve the business environment.

At present, all parts of the country are vigorously attracting investment projects of strategic emerging industries to settle in the local area.

How can Guangdong provide modern service industries such as finance, law, patent, management, consulting and other supporting facilities for R&D developers, investors and manufacturers of strategic emerging industries by building the "chain master" of the industrial chain and supply chain and building a technology innovation center Service is the key link for Guangdong to achieve the goal of technological innovation and high-quality development.

　　(The author is a professor at the Department of Economics, Lingnan College, Sun Yat-Sen University)