联合国贸发会议报告显示——


  2021年全球外国直接投资强劲反弹

  本报日内瓦讯(记者杨海泉)1月19日,联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)发布最新一期《投资趋势监测》报告显示,2021年全球外国直接投资(FDI)强劲反弹,但全球复苏呈现极不均衡状态;得益于各国采取经济刺激政策,全球基础设施融资增加,但工业领域新建项目依然薄弱;流入发达经济体的FDI增幅最大。

  报告指出,2021年全球FDI总额从2020年的9290亿美元增长77%,达到1.65万亿美元,超过了新冠肺炎疫情前水平。迄今,流入发达经济体FDI增长最快,其2021年FDI估计达到7770亿美元,是2020年的3倍。得益于跨境并购激增,流入美国的资金增加了一倍多。流入发展中经济体的FDI增长30%,达到近8700亿美元,其中东亚和东南亚增长加速,拉美和加勒比地区已恢复到接近疫情前水平,西亚也有所回升。非洲的资金流入也出现适度增长,该地区的FDI增加了一倍多。在2021年全球新增的FDI中,超过5000亿美元流入发达经济体,几乎占四分之三。发展中经济体特别是最不发达国家的复苏增长较为温和。

  在有利的长期融资条件、经济复苏刺激方案和海外投资计划的支持下,投资者对基础设施行业的信心增强。国际项目融资交易的数量和价值分别增长了53%和91%,在大多数高收入地区以及亚洲、拉美和加勒比地区,都出现了大幅增长。相比之下,投资者对产业链和全球价值链的信心较弱,绿地投资公告项目数量减少1%,价值仅增加7%,全球价值链密集型产业如电子业的新项目数量进一步下降。

  按行业划分,工业部门的绿地投资活动仍比疫情前的平均水平低30%。信息通信行业的数字经济领域已完全恢复,该领域的交易数量增加了50%以上。大多数行业的基础设施项目融资已超过疫情前水平。可再生能源的项目数量最多。跨境并购的繁荣在服务业最为明显。

  Specifically, the United States is still the largest host country for FDI. Its FDI increased by 114% to US$323 billion, and its value almost tripled to US$285 billion.

FDI into the EU rose by 8%, but financial flows across the bloc's major economies remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

FDI inflows to China reached a record $179 billion, driven by strong service-sector FDI.

FDI inflows to Brazil doubled from 2020 to $58 billion, but inflows remained slightly below pre-pandemic levels.

ASEAN resumed its role as the engine of FDI growth in Asia and globally, with FDI inflows rising by 35%, with growth in most member countries.

FDI to India fell by 26%.

Inflows to Saudi Arabia quadrupled to $23 billion, helped by an increase in cross-border mergers and acquisitions.

FDI inflows to South Africa jumped to $41 billion from $3 billion in 2020.

  Investment in SDG-related sectors in developing economies has been severely affected during the pandemic, with double-digit declines, and the recovery in investment remains fragile, with the number of related investment projects increasing by only 11%.

Renewable energy and utilities remain the sectors with the strongest growth in international project finance.

In LDCs, however, investment trends related to the SDGs were less favourable, with the number of related investment projects falling by 17% following a 30% decline in 2020.

From a productive capacity development perspective, investment trends in LDCs reflect structural weaknesses and show that several sectors have been hit hard by the pandemic. Extractive industries projects have traditionally been an important part of investment in many LDCs. Investment projects in this area have partially dried up and declined.

  The report believes that the outlook for global FDI in 2022 is positive.

International project financing in the infrastructure sector will continue to provide growth drivers.

The ongoing outbreak remains the main downside risk to global FDI.

In addition, the speed of vaccination in developing countries and the speed of implementation of infrastructure investment stimulus plans in various countries are still important uncertainties for global FDI.

Other important risks include labor and supply chain bottlenecks, energy prices and inflationary pressures.

Yang Haiquan

Keywords: