In 2021, the main production indicators and efficiency indicators of the building materials industry will maintain year-on-year growth, and the economy will remain stable overall, but the building materials market demand is lower than expected, the industry and market differentiation is more obvious, commodity prices fluctuate, energy consumption "dual control" policy implementation, etc. Increased volatility in the building materials industry.
Looking forward to 2022, the building materials industry will fully enter a new stage of high-quality development marked by green and low carbon. The macro market demand is expected to remain stable throughout the year, providing strong support for the stable operation of the industry.
Industry keeps running smoothly
"In 2021, the building materials industry has overcome factors such as the spread of the epidemic, the rapid rise in commodity prices, and power and production restrictions, and has maintained a stable and good development trend." Yan Xiaofeng, Secretary of the Party Committee and President of China Building Materials Federation, said that it is expected In 2021, building materials enterprises above designated size will achieve operating income of 5.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%; total profits will reach 530 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%; product exports will exceed 40 billion US dollars, a record high.
In 2021, the operation of the building materials industry will show fluctuations throughout the year.
The reporter learned from the China Building Materials Federation that the production of building materials was active in the first half of 2021, but the market supply exceeded demand, and the downward trend in prices was obvious; in the second half of 2021, the operation of the industry was characterized by obvious fluctuations, and July and August were affected by high temperature, rainfall and typhoons. Due to climatic factors such as the epidemic and the spread of the epidemic, the production of building materials slowed down in September and October due to the "double control" policy of energy consumption in many places, but the price increased significantly.
The data shows that from January to November 2021, among the 31 key monitoring building materials products produced by enterprises above designated size, the output of 21 products maintained growth, of which the output of flat glass reached 930 million weight boxes, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year; The output of 10 products including cement, lime and concrete machinery decreased year-on-year.
In terms of prices, from January to November 2021, the ex-factory prices of building materials and non-metallic mineral products increased by 3.5% year-on-year.
Among them, the ex-factory prices of cement, lime gypsum, clay sand and other products increased year-on-year, but the increase showed a big difference.
From the perspective of industry economic benefits, from January to November 2021, the operating income of the building materials industry above designated size increased by 13.1% year-on-year, and the total profit increased by 13.2% year-on-year.
Among them, the operating income of the cement industry maintained a year-on-year increase, while the total profit decreased year-on-year, and the operating income and total profit of the flat glass industry increased significantly.
As the main sub-sector of building materials, the market demand of the cement industry in 2021 will show a trend of strength before and weakness. The cumulative cement output for the year will reach 2.363 billion tons, maintaining a high plateau period, a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year.
"The demand for cement in 2021 is like a 'roller coaster'. From the high at the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the fluctuation range is relatively large." Kong Xiangzhong, executive chairman of the China Cement Association, believes that from the demand side analysis, in July and August 2021, many places across the country Encountered by heavy rain, construction and transportation were blocked, resulting in weakened demand for cement market; repeated epidemics in many places and insufficient project funds made some construction in progress suspended and new projects difficult to start, which suppressed market demand; in addition, weakened real estate investment will undoubtedly increase demand Pull fatigue.
From the perspective of the supply side, mainly affected by the skyrocketing coal price, the production cost of cement enterprises has risen sharply; combined with the decline in market demand, the operating and management costs of enterprises have further increased; due to the “double control” of energy consumption and power shortages, many regions are limited by electricity It also has a great impact on the performance of cement production capacity in some regions.
"It is expected that in the first quarter of 2022, the recovery of the cement market in the south will come faster than that in the north, and the overall demand for cement will remain at a high plateau throughout the year," said Kong Xiangzhong.
Although cement demand will decline slightly in 2021, the industry price will continue to run at a high level.
"Under the background of sharply rising production costs and shrinking supply, cement prices have reached a record high, which will keep the profits of the cement industry at a high level in 2021." Chen Bolin, vice president of the China Cement Association, speculated that the total profits of the cement industry in 2021 are expected to be slightly lower. There is a contraction, reaching more than 170 billion yuan.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
In 2022, the macro operating environment faced by the building materials industry is expected to remain stable, but uncertainties still exist.
Relevant experts believe that the national fixed asset investment will maintain a stable scale in 2022, which will form a basic support for the economic operation of the building materials industry; Metal mining and other industries have increased momentum. It is expected that in 2022, demand in consumer areas such as building decoration and downstream industries will increase.
In addition, with the overall improvement of the international epidemic situation in 2022, it is expected to have an impact on my country's export situation, and the export value of building materials may be slightly adjusted.
"Achieving the goal of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and promoting green and low-carbon development is an urgent situation facing the development of the building materials industry." Yan Xiaofeng pointed out that the current building materials industry as a whole is still at the middle and low end of the global industrial chain and value chain, and the technological innovation system and mechanism are not yet available. The endogenous power of improvement and enterprise innovation is still insufficient, the research and development and high-end applications of advanced inorganic non-metallic materials still have a significant gap with the international advanced level, and there is a lack of original technology and new technologies and new products at the world's leading level.
"Accelerating scientific and technological innovation is a major issue facing the green, low-carbon, safe and high-quality development of the building materials industry."
Increasing the proportion of clean energy use, increasing the substitution rate of raw materials, and accelerating the research and development and promotion of green and low-carbon building materials are important ways for the building materials industry to achieve carbon reduction and emission reduction.
In this direction, China Building Materials Federation for the first time organized major scientific and technological projects in the national building materials industry in the form of "revealing the list and taking command" and "horse racing", focusing on key industries with a high proportion of energy consumption and obvious demonstration and driving effects, tackling cement and glass energy-saving reduction. pollution reduction technology.
"As a key industry for energy conservation and carbon reduction, the cement industry still faces the problem of serious overcapacity that has not been fundamentally resolved. We must eliminate outdated production capacity, accelerate green and digital transformation, and continuously improve the modernization level of the industrial chain." Conch Group Party Committee Secretary and Chairman Wang Cheng believes that in building a carbon emission reduction system, cement enterprises should actively move towards the fields of new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, and speed up the extension of the chain to strengthen the chain.
It is necessary to carry out energy saving and carbon reduction actions, and comprehensively promote all-green power supply and new technologies; take advantage of the large mine space and wide distribution of buildings in the cement industry to build a green and low-carbon industrial ecological chain and reduce fossil energy consumption; invest in the cement industry to Downstream transfer, lengthening the industrial chain.
Kong Xiangzhong suggested that in 2022, the cement industry should continue to promote market integration, increase industrial concentration, and guide the exit of excess capacity; enhance the core competitiveness of the cement manufacturing industry, cultivate and develop new business forms and new models, attach great importance to extending the industrial chain and supply chain investment, and guide Market consumption potential; increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, accelerate the research and development of scientific and technological achievements in energy conservation, pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and actively apply digital intelligence and new energy technologies to transform enterprises; The group implements the development strategy of multinational companies.
Create a full green industrial chain