Moving forward steadily and opening a new chapter
In 2021, China's economy will deliver an "answer sheet" that exceeds expectations
The "Annual Transcript" of China's economy in 2021 was released today: preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 will exceed 114 trillion yuan, reaching 114.368 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year at constant prices, and two The average annual growth rate is 5.1%; China's economic scale continues to rank second in the world, accounting for more than 18% of the global economy; per capita GDP exceeds 12,000 US dollars.
If you look closely, you will find that many indicators have exceeded expectations: 12.69 million new jobs were created in cities and towns throughout the year, an increase of 830,000 over the previous year, exceeding the target set at the beginning of the year ahead of schedule; It rose 0.9% year-on-year, below the expected target of around 3% for the full year. …
Looking back on 2021, the pressure of the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has been throughout the year, and all walks of life have been affected to a greater or lesser extent. During this period, they are faced with risks such as externally imported inflation and debt pressure on individual real estate companies. However, these challenges do not It has not become an obstacle to China's economic recovery and growth.
If we look back at the past three years, the growth rate of GDP has also shown a "V"-shaped upward trend.
114 trillion yuan in total, 12,000 dollars in quality
In the past year, my country's nominal GDP has increased from 101 trillion yuan to 114 trillion yuan, an increase of about 13 trillion yuan.
If converted at the average annual exchange rate, the increment alone is about 2 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to the economic aggregate of a relatively large major economy in one year.
If viewed in the context of the world, China’s answer in 2021 will be even harder to come by: the World Bank’s “Global Economic Outlook” report released on January 11 lowered the global economic growth of last year and this year It is expected that the global economy will grow by 5.5% last year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.
The size of China's economy is already very large, and the trend of resumption of growth is also very obvious.
However, Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's Office and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, pays more attention to the changes in the per capita GDP index: 2021 , China's per capita GDP has reached 12,550 US dollars, which is very close to the threshold of high-income countries classified by the World Bank.
Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, also emphasized that the total GDP exceeded 110 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP also increased accordingly, which is indeed a landmark event.
"The continuous improvement of the total economic scale and per capita level means that my country's comprehensive national strength, social productivity, and people's living standards have been further improved. It also means that my country's development has a stronger foundation, better conditions, and more motivation, contributing to global development. China strength".
"With a population of more than 1.4 billion, it is not easy for us to increase per capita GDP. This indicator is very important, and it should be said that it shows the quality of China's economic growth." Yao Jingyuan believes: "This shows that we are on the basis of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. ( A solid step has been taken towards achieving the second centenary goal."
Yao Jingyuan said: "We can achieve such achievements because we have correctly implemented various macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy and fiscal policy, and put 'six stability' and 'six guarantees' as the fundamental tasks."
Employment expands, income increases, and social consumption potential is released
Investment, consumption, import and export are regarded as the "troika" driving economic growth.
In 2021, the "troika" has all made positive contributions to economic growth, but with slight differences: final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services will drive economic growth by 5.3, 1.1, and 1.7 percentage points, respectively, and contribute to economic growth. The contribution rates were 65.4%, 13.7% and 20.9% respectively.
In the fourth quarter, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 85.3%.
There is no doubt that consumption has become the most important growth pole in the "troika".
Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood and the source of consumption. The 2021 employment target has been exceeded ahead of schedule, which has led to the release of consumption potential.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2021, 12.69 million new urban jobs will be created, an increase of 830,000 over the previous year; the national average urban survey unemployment rate is 5.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year's average.
In Ning Jizhe's view, the sustained economic recovery and development continue to create new jobs, laying the foundation for employment; the employment-priority policy has been effective, and a series of policies to aid enterprises and stabilize jobs have created new jobs for college graduates, rural migrant workers, etc. The employment of key groups has played a positive role.
Data show that the total number of migrant workers in 2021 is 292.51 million, an increase of 6.91 million over 2020, and has exceeded the level of 2019 before the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
New forms of employment are also booming. At present, there are about 200 million people in flexible employment in my country.
According to the survey, there are more than 4 million takeaway riders on some platforms; more than 1.6 million anchors and related staff work on the platform, an increase of nearly three times over the previous year.
In Ning Jizhe's view, the recovery growth of consumption is supported by the expansion of employment and the increase of income.
In 2021, the per capita disposable income of national residents will be 35,128 yuan, an actual increase of 8.1% over the previous year, which is basically in line with economic growth; the per capita disposable income ratio of urban and rural residents will be 2.50, and the gap will narrow.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Society for Policy Science, believes that there are many bright spots in China's economic answer sheet in 2021, among which prices, employment, and per capita income are all important indicators that reflect basic people's livelihood.
In his view, despite the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's disposable income indicators have kept pace with economic growth for two consecutive years, which means that the middle-income group will gradually increase.
With the implementation of a series of policies such as promoting common prosperity, the consumption potential of the whole society will be further released.
Respond to challenges and guide expectations from weak to strong
Behind the hard-won achievements, challenges and difficulties are equally obvious.
In the short term, the GDP growth from the first to the fourth quarter of 2021 is 18.3%, 7.9%, 4.9% and 4.0% respectively, and the economic growth rate is expected to slow down.
From a long-term perspective, the problems of aging and low birthrate are also imminent: in 2021, there will be 10.62 million births in the country, with a birth rate of 7.52‰; the death population will be 10.14 million, with a population mortality rate of 7.18‰; the natural population growth rate will be 0.34‰.
The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year pointed out that China's economy is currently facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations.
Looking forward to 2022, what development trend will China's economy continue?
How to deal with weakening economic growth expectations in the future?
Xu Hongcai believes that the Central Economic Work Conference has pointed out the direction of this year's economic work, emphasizing that stability is at the forefront and seeking progress while maintaining stability, and has deployed seven major policies as a whole, proposing to carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead, so the "14th Five-Year Plan" Some key projects in the plan can be considered to be implemented faster, and economic growth can be stabilized through infrastructure investment.
"In the past year, our fiscal revenue has grown rapidly, and there is still room for manoeuvre in fiscal policy. With the support of active fiscal policy, infrastructure investment can play a role first."
Yao Jingyuan also said that the expected guidance of economic growth in 2022 requires efforts in both investment and consumption.
In terms of investment, investment in a series of infrastructure such as high-speed railways, expressways, farmland water conservancy, and urban construction can be accelerated, and many major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan can be started earlier to help stabilize the downward pressure on the economy; Clean up some administrative regulations that inhibit consumption, smooth domestic and international circulation, and "let consumption play a greater role."
In Yao Jingyuan's view, the key to changing economic expectations from weak to strong lies in enterprises. Whether it is investment, consumption or the growth of imports and exports, enterprises need to build up their confidence. Therefore, fiscal and monetary policies should also focus on enterprises: monetary policy must allow enterprises to build up their confidence. Enterprises should reduce financing costs and guide enterprises to increase their investment expectations; fiscal policies should reduce taxes and fees for enterprises, so that enterprises can be light-packed and more motivated.
"As an enterprise develops, economic growth can be stabilized within a reasonable range, the vitality of market entities has been enhanced, and we can completely overcome employment difficulties." Yao Jingyuan believes that as long as we insist on making progress while maintaining stability, and "run our own business well" It is not afraid of complex external environmental influences.
This newspaper, Beijing, January 17th
China Youth Daily, China Youth Daily reporter Wang Lin Source: China Youth Daily