Zhongxin Finance, January 18 (Reporter Li Jinlei) What do you think of China's economic report card in 2021?
What challenges will China's economy face in 2022?
What trend will the "troika" show?
How to deal with the decline in births?
The National Bureau of Statistics released the 2021 China Economic Annual Report on the 17th.
Focusing on the above-mentioned focus issues, the "China New Observation" column of Chinanews.com interviewed a number of experts for interpretation.
Data map.
Photo by Xu Congjun
What about China's economic report card in 2021?
Data shows that in 2021, the GDP will reach 114.367 trillion yuan, breaking the 110 trillion mark, and the GDP growth rate will reach 8.1%, achieving the expected goal of more than 6% for the whole year.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that on the whole, my country's economic development and epidemic prevention and control will maintain a leading position in the world in 2021, and the main work goals have been achieved.
"The Chinese economy has delivered a good answer." Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's Office and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that despite the complex problems, difficulties and challenges, China's economy will achieve good achievements in 2021. The main indicators exceeded expectations and were full of internal momentum and vitality.
Yao Jingyuan pointed out that judging the economic situation, we mainly look at four major indicators. Looking at the economic growth rate, 8.1% is an unexpected growth, which is hard-won and ranks among the top among the world's major economies.
Second, look at employment. Last year, the employment pressure was quite large, but 12.69 million new jobs were created in cities and towns throughout the year, exceeding the expected target of more than 11 million.
The national average urban survey unemployment rate for the whole year was 5.1%, lower than the expected target of around 5.5%.
Third, looking at prices, the world’s inflation is relatively serious now. The US inflation rate has reached the highest point in 40 years, but China’s prices remain low and stable, rising by 0.9% in 2021, completing the control target of about 3%.
Fourth, look at the balance of payments. Last year, the import and export of goods trade exceeded 39 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.4%, equivalent to 6.05 trillion US dollars, which was the highest point in history.
The balance of foreign exchange reserves was US$3,250.2 billion, ranking first in the world.
Ningbo Zhoushan Port.
Photo by Tang Jiankai
What challenges will China's economy face in 2022?
"From a trend point of view, the GDP in the four quarters of 2021 will increase by 18.3%, 7.9%, 4.9% and 4% year-on-year respectively, reflecting the increased downward pressure on the economy." Wen Bin said that in 2022, the challenges in economic development work There are still quite a few. There are many uncertainties in the global economy, inflation continues to rise, and policy changes in developed countries may cause greater unbalanced recovery and volatility shocks. The domestic economy is facing triple pressures, and the pressure on economic growth is not small.
Yao Jingyuan believes that the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that China's economic development is currently facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations.
In the operation of the entire national economy, the growth of domestic demand is weaker than that of external demand, the profitability of mid- and downstream enterprises is weaker than that of upstream enterprises, and the operating difficulties of small and micro enterprises are greater than that of large and medium-sized enterprises.
How to deal with it?
Wen Bin suggested that in order to ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range, it is necessary to further expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand.
From a policy point of view, policies to support stable growth in various aspects have been successively introduced and implemented. Policies with obvious expected effects such as tax cuts, fee reductions, and RRR cuts have been implemented, and it is expected to make efforts ahead.
Wen Bin believes that in the next stage, macro policies should further form a synergy. On the one hand, on the basis of making good use of the policies that have been issued, it is still necessary to launch the policy at key times such as increasing downward pressure on the economy and increasing difficulties in key areas and weak links. More forms of structural policies to provide precise support; on the other hand, to deal with various internal and external risks and shocks, to create a safe and stable environment for economic recovery.
The picture shows tourists shopping for goods at the duty-free shop in Haikou Riyue Plaza.
Photo by Luo Yunfei
What trend will the "troika" show?
As the "troika" driving economic growth, consumption, investment and export will have different performances in 2021, and export performance will be even more dazzling.
In 2021, final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services will drive economic growth by 5.3, 1.1, and 1.7 percentage points, respectively, contributing 65.4%, 13.7%, and 20.9% to economic growth.
In the fourth quarter, final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services drove economic growth by 3.4, -0.5, and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, contributing 85.3 percent, -11.6 percent, and 26.4 percent to economic growth.
"Compared with the years before the epidemic, the contribution rate of net exports has increased significantly, the contribution rate of consumption has increased steadily and slightly, and the contribution rate of investment has dropped significantly, mainly due to the strong external demand driving my country's exports to maintain high growth." Wen Bin judged , In the near future, major projects in various places will focus on the plans and start of construction after the year, and it is expected that infrastructure investment will accelerate this year.
From a trend point of view, consumption in December only increased by 1.7%. Recently, the epidemic situation has rebounded in some regions, and cases of infection with the Omicron strain have been found in China, which has formed certain restrictions on service consumption and offline consumption.
Yao Jingyuan suggested that in 2022, the expansion of domestic demand, especially the expansion of domestic consumption, should be regarded as a key breakthrough, and how to expand consumption should be studied in an all-round way.
"Foreign trade data is one of the most dazzling macroeconomic data in 2021." Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, judged that China's foreign trade in 2022 is expected to continue to grow steadily thanks to the country's policy support.
Although faced with challenges such as the epidemic, high prices of raw materials for bulk commodities, high international shipping prices, and a high base, it is expected that this year's trade "carriage" is expected to maintain a positive contribution to the overall economy.
Data map: The teacher leads the children to play in the classroom.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yuan
How to deal with the decline in births?
In the 2021 economic report, population issues received more attention.
Data show that in 2021, the population will increase by 480,000 from the end of the previous year.
The number of births in the year was 10.62 million, and the number of births further declined.
Feng Wenmeng, director and researcher of the Research Office of the Social Development Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the further decline in the birth population in 2021 will be mainly affected by four reasons. With the occurrence of changes such as promotion and the development of socialized services, the public's concept of family, marriage, and fertility has undergone profound changes, and the willingness to bear children and the fertility rate have declined compared with previous years; second, the number of women of childbearing age has declined, which has brought The birth population will naturally also decline.
In 2021, there will be about 5 million fewer women of childbearing age between the ages of 15 and 49 than the previous year.
In the short term, firstly, due to the impact of the epidemic, some people will take the initiative to avoid giving birth during the epidemic when they are not in a hurry, considering the inconvenience of seeking medical treatment; secondly, under the environment of great downward pressure on the economy, some people's economic situation has occurred Changes that affect reproductive decisions and delay reproductive planning.
Feng Wenmeng pointed out that it is necessary to introduce targeted measures to alleviate the trend of declining births, and we must make efforts to reverse the value orientation of unwillingness to marry and have children through the advocacy of ideas and the introduction of supporting policies, so that young people can marry as much as possible. Those who are fertile should give birth as much as possible, and create a marriage and childbearing-friendly society.
In addition, efforts must be made to eliminate the impact of the epidemic on fertility. All localities must provide better and more convenient services for medical needs such as pregnancy preparation and pregnancy examinations to ensure that services are safe, convenient, and accessible, so as to eliminate everyone's worries and prevent young people from At the same time, economic policies need to further increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises and stimulate their vitality, so as to increase employment opportunities and attract more employment, thereby improving the income of residents. , strengthen social security and social assistance, and increase the peace of mind of childbirth.
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