Zhongxin Finance, January 18 (Zuo Yukun) "Yangma" is out in the New Year!
This time, it was a bowl of "spicy noodles".
According to the People's Bank of China on the 17th, in order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will launch a 700 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation on January 17, 2022.
The winning rates for medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations and open market reverse repurchase operations both fell by 10 basis points to 2.85% and 2.10%.
Screenshot from the official website of the Central Bank.
It is worth noting that this is the first time the central bank has lowered the policy rate since the 7-day reverse repurchase rate in March 2020 and the 1-year MLF rate in April.
The industry generally believes that this move is expected to push LPR further down.
send positive signals
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2021 pointed out that my country's economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations.
"This rate cut can be seen as another important tool in the central bank's monetary policy toolbox to support stable growth." Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank, said that under the expectation of "stable growth", from the fourth quarter of 2021 Since then, monetary policy has exerted efforts to support stable growth, and relevant policies have been introduced and implemented intensively.
"The interest rate cut this month reflects the requirement for an appropriate combination of forward policy efforts, cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical policies." Wen Bin believes that although the market's call for lowering policy interest rates is still high, today's excess MLF continues to be done. And reverse repurchase and rate cut by 10BP still slightly exceeded market expectations.
"On the one hand, as my country's economy is still under great downward pressure and policy needs are more urgent, the rate cut in January at the beginning of the year reflects the requirement for the implementation of monetary policy to be ahead; The first rate cut in the early stage was of equal magnitude, and the intensity was not small, and it was a manifestation of increasing counter-cyclical adjustment." Wen Bin said.
Data map of the People's Bank of China.
Photo by Li Huisi issued by China News Agency
Wen Bin also believes that the time window is better used for this rate cut.
From a global perspective, inflation in major economies is high, expectations of monetary policy tightening are gradually strengthening, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet ahead of schedule. Therefore, the period before the Fed raises interest rates can be regarded as a good time window, and the constraints on monetary policy are relatively limited.
The housing market is also a big factor in the rate cut.
According to the December 70-city housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th, the second-hand housing price index in the 70-city city fell by 0.36% month-on-month, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the previous month. This is the fourth consecutive month of housing price declines.
"This year will continue to emphasize the content of maintaining sufficient liquidity in the banking or financial system, which will also have a positive impact on the real estate market." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that compared with past operations, the current similar loose liquidity The impact of the policy will be greater, and it will also have a greater impact on the relaxation of housing loans.
Data map: Bank staff counts currency.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun
Or drive the subsequent reduction of LPR
After a lapse of 21 months, the MLF interest rate has been lowered, and the next step of the LPR interest rate has also attracted the attention of all parties.
On December 20, 2021, the Loan Market Quote Rate (LPR) announced by the National Interbank Funding Center authorized by the People's Bank of China is: 1-year LPR is 3.8%, down 5 basis points from the previous period; LPR for more than 5 years 4.65%, unchanged.
"Looking from the past, it is rare for a rate cut to continue to guide the decline of LPR in the next month after the one-year LPR declines. Even in the midst of the 2020 epidemic, there will be at least one LPR decline between the two times. month interval." Wen Bin said.
Even so, many industry experts believe that, driven by this rate cut, LPR quotations for the next 1-year and 5-year periods are expected to decline.
Wen Bin predicts that on the 20th of this month, the one-year and five-year LPR quotations will likely drop by 10 BPs simultaneously, which will promote the stability of the financing cost of the real economy.
"Because the LPR quotation is directly linked to the 1-year MLF interest rate, and LPR is the pricing benchmark for banks to issue loans, after the MLF reduction, the LPR interest rate may continue to decline, which will help further guide commercial banks to reduce loan interest rates. , to reduce the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises, help enterprises to operate steadily and accelerate their recovery, and effectively help stabilize growth." said Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute.
"Accordingly, it can be considered that the line of bank credit will be further relaxed in the first quarter of this year, which objectively promotes the increase in the scale of bank lending and the acceleration of the pace." Yan Yuejin also believes that the mortgage interest rate may also be further reduced. For home buyers, etc. also have a positive impact.
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