Sino-Singapore Jingwei, January 15 (Xiong Jiali) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in December 2021.

Data show that the year-on-year increase in CPI in 17 provinces in December was lower than that of the whole country. Among them, the lowest increase in Yunnan was 0.4%.

17. The price increase in land is lower than that of the whole country

　　Data show that in December 2021, the national consumer price rose by 1.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.

Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in December, the domestic epidemic spread in many places.

　　Comparing the data of 31 provinces, 10 provinces, namely Shaanxi, Ningxia, Tianjin, Qinghai, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Anhui, increased their CPI year-on-year in December by more than the national level. Among them, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Tianjin increased by more than 2%, respectively. 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.2%.

The year-on-year CPI growth in December in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Hubei was the same as that of the whole country.

The year-on-year CPI growth in the remaining 17 provinces was lower than the national level. Among them, Guizhou, Hainan, Tibet, and Yunnan had a year-on-year CPI growth rate of less than 1% in December, and Yunnan had the lowest growth rate of only 0.4%.

　　Li Mo, an analyst at the Caixin International Economic Research Institute, pointed out that food and non-food items together caused the year-on-year CPI growth rate to drop in December 2021.

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from a year-on-year perspective, the price of pork dropped by 36.7%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 10.6%, a sharp drop of 20.0 percentage points from the previous month; freshwater fish and eggs And the prices of edible vegetable oil rose by 16.7%, 14.2% and 9.0% respectively, and the growth rate all declined.

Among the non-food items, the prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 2.9%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Among them, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 23.0% and 25.4% respectively, and the increase was much lower than that of the previous month.

Institutions: CPI may rise moderately in 2022

　　How will CPI go in the future?

Donghai Securities believes that under the benchmark scenario, considering factors such as the high base of CPI in the same period last year and the expected stabilization of pig prices due to destocking of live pigs, the CPI is expected to stabilize in January 2022.

　　Looking forward to 2022, Huatai Securities said that the CPI may hover at a low level of less than 2% in the short term.

On the one hand, a short-term correction in pig prices suppressed food inflation. On the other hand, the Omicron virus strain increased short-term epidemic prevention pressure and suppressed consumer demand and non-food inflation.

"The annual CPI may be low before and high, and the central center will rise to about 2% moderately." The agency predicts.

　　China Chengxin International also expects that the overall CPI will rise moderately in 2022, but the upside is limited.

China Chengxin International analyzed that in 2022, with the marginal recovery of investment and consumption, the prices of related service industries will rebound, and the drag of pork prices on the upward CPI will gradually ease. The CPI may show a slight upward trend throughout the year. , the middle of the year or the high point of the whole year.

However, as upstream raw material prices gradually return to normal levels and the epidemic drags down the demand-side repair rhythm, the CPI lacks a substantial upward basis, and it is difficult to see a sharp rise, and it is unlikely that it will break "3" throughout the year.

　　The National Economic Research Center of Peking University believes that the trend of CPI growth in 2022 will be largely constrained by the fluctuation of food prices.

Under the influence of the low base and the recovery of the economy in the second half of the year and the recovery of pig prices, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 2022 will be significantly higher than that in 2021.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

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