According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's total fertility rate has been lower than the level of generational replacement (2.1) for a long time, and is currently around 1.2, while the fertility willingness of women of childbearing age is only 1.8.
According to the "China Statistical Yearbook 2021" released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national birth rate will be 8.52‰ in 2020, falling below 10‰ for the first time, while the natural population growth rate in the same period is only 1.45‰.
In 2020, compared with 2019, the national population will increase by 2.04 million.
In this context, discussions about encouraging fertility have occurred from time to time. Recently, the theory of "printing money to give birth to babies" by Ren Zeping, the former chief economist of Evergrande Group, has been on the hot search.
After the hustle and bustle, we need to think calmly. When we discuss the issue of encouraging fertility, what are we talking about?
Are the gloomy economic outlooks based on shrinking populations credible?
"Encouraging fertility" or "serving and supporting fertility"
Ren Yuan, a professor at the Population Research Institute of Fudan University, said in an interview with The Paper that "encouraging fertility" is insufficient and unnecessary in terms of medium and long-term macroeconomic relations between the population and the specific reproductive behavior of individuals in microscopic families. of.
Feng Shuizhang, dean of the School of Economics and the Institute of Economics and Society of Jinan University, told The Paper that whether it is marriage or childbirth, the choice of individuals and families must first be respected.
"If you think the fertility rate is low, throwing money at everyone to have children, I think it is a kind of disrespect for people." He also pointed out that simply throwing money at the group will cause inconvenience to groups who are unwilling to have children, or are unwilling to have more children. Fair burdens and pressures create new contradictions.
Zhang Yaojun, a researcher at the National Development Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China and a professor at the Institute of Regional and Urban Economics, School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, said in an interview with The Paper that China's population policy issues require continuous research, because the population issue is a special issue , there is inertia.
Ren Yuan said that childbearing is fundamentally a family's autonomous decision, which should be based on and meet people's reproductive wishes and needs.
If "encouraging fertility" deviates from people's willingness to have children and the specific reasons for people's reproductive behavior, it may be detrimental to the well-being of the family and bring about negative opposition.
"For the fertility policy, we should see that the current fertility willingness is actually higher than the fertility level, so there is an 'unrealized pregnancy' phenomenon, so it is necessary to serve and support the people's fertility, and solve the problem that the people do not want to have children, do not want to have children However, the fertility policy still needs to avoid the problem of 'unintended pregnancy' and provide public services for contraception and birth control. Because the fertility policy we need is not to encourage fertility, but to serve and support fertility. Service The essence of fertility and support for fertility is to serve and meet people's willingness and needs for fertility." Ren Yuan said.
Zhang Lilong, an associate professor at the School of Labor Economics at Capital University of Economics and Business, told The Paper that in terms of demography, there are few references to encouraging childbirth, "There is a concept called family-friendly support policies, not only for childbirth, but mainly for During the period of social transformation, due to changes in the family structure, especially when the functions originally undertaken by the family were not able to perform well, certain support for the family became a policy requirement.”
Shi Yi, an associate researcher at the China Population Development Research Center, also told the surging journalists that the formulation is more inclined to a positive birth support policy, because it is hoped that the policy can provide all-round support and guarantee for individuals who choose to have children, and alleviate their the burden of marriage, childbirth, parenting, and education.
"If it is encouragement, there is a very clear orientation, and the implicit goal is what kind of goal we expect our fertility level to achieve." Shi Yi said.
Wang Xuebo, an associate professor at the School of Economics of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, also told The Paper that the fertility rate is endogenous, and it is not a matter of randomly specifying a fertility rate and everything will be fine.
"It is inherently reasonable for economically developed countries to have lower fertility rates. For example, women's status is relatively high and the labor force participation rate is high, so women's choice to have children will have higher costs, which may affect their careers, or high income. The opportunity cost of having children in groups is relatively high, so there is a realistic basis for the low fertility rate in such a country." Wang Xuebo said.
How much low fertility is hurting the economy
Much of the concern about low fertility rates is also the fear that a shrinking population will hamper economic development.
Ren Yuan said that my country's "demographic dividend" is gradually weakening, but the relationship between the low fertility rate and the impediment of population changes to economic development has not been fully proved.
He emphasized that for China's economic growth, the allocation of labor resources is more important than the total population and structure.
"It is not necessary to exaggerate the adverse impact of population factors on economic growth. my country still has a huge population, with a working-age labor force of 900 million to 1 billion, and an elderly population and elderly human resources of 300 to 400 million. Moreover, my country's urbanization Continuing to develop. Combined with the rapid rise in the level of technology, technology is still replacing the labor force, and the education level of the population is improving. Even in the context of low fertility and population shrinking, population changes are still rich in economic development. The positive role needs to be applied in economic development decision-making." Ren Yuan said.
Wang Xuebo also said that in fact, the population growth rates of developed countries and regions are very low, and there is no evidence that low fertility rates will cause economic recession.
For example, the population growth rate of Europe, Hong Kong, and Singapore is very low, but there is no evidence that population shrinkage will hinder the economy. Instead, there is more evidence that the population growth rate of developed countries is relatively low, and the population of developing and less developed countries is relatively low. The growth rate is relatively high.
"Birth itself is a rational choice of human beings, and everyone has such basic rights. From the perspective of the most important determinants of economic development such as the level of human capital and institutions, if the economic fundamentals have a good system, a high level of human capital, Technology is very advanced, even if the fertility rate is low, the economy will be prosperous and attractive, and there will be momentum for sustainable development." Wang Xuebo said.
Zhang Lilong said that from the most basic economic theories such as production function, we will find that population is reflected in the production function in the form of labor factors.
"Therefore, changes in demographic structure or population size have an impact on economic growth and development, and labor factors are important for economic growth."
Zhang Lilong further said that this is mainly because the quality of the labor force cannot undergo substantial growth and changes in a short period of time. Under the condition that other variables are constant, the long-term population shrinkage, especially the population shrinkage accompanied by the aging of the population structure, will not Economic growth is likely to be unfavorable.
Zhang Yaojun said that there is actually a critical point, and the population shrinking to the critical point will form an obstacle to economic growth, but this critical point has not yet been reached.
"Because the development of technology has improved social productivity, many industries and employment opportunities will be replaced by artificial intelligence in the future. With the great increase in productivity, many people will lose their jobs, which may also lead to conflicts." Zhang Yaojun said.