Zhongxin Finance, January 12 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On January 12, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the national consumer price index (CPI) for December 2021 and the whole year of 2021. Many institutions predict that the CPI for December 2021 will be released. The increase may decline, and the annual CPI will be within the control target of around 3%.

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

CPI year-on-year increase may fall

　　Driven by the sharp rise in fresh vegetable prices, the year-on-year increase in CPI in November 2021 will expand significantly, returning to the "2 era" after 14 months.

　　What will be the year-on-year increase in CPI in December 2021?

According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 20 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in December 2021 is 1.73%.

If the above-mentioned average forecast values ​​are fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in December will fall sharply.

　　"Preliminary estimates show that the price of edible agricultural products in December 2021 will drop by 1.4% month-on-month, from rising to falling, and the year-on-year decline will expand." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that pork prices will rise as a whole in December 2021, from the 1st to the 27th. The national average wholesale price of pork is 24.1 yuan/kg, but pork prices have declined since mid-December.

　　According to the monitoring of the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in December, the average wholesale price of pork (white strips) was 24.00 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 44.6%.

　　"The price increase of industrial products is slowly transmitted to end consumer products, and the overall increase in non-food prices may expand. In December, the CPI tail-raising factor dropped by 0.7 percentage points. Taking into account the above factors, the year-on-year CPI growth rate will fall back to within 2%, and it is expected that Between 1.7% and 1.9%, the median value is 1.8%; the average annual increase in CPI is about 1%." Liu Xuezhi pointed out.

　　According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 76 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in 2021 is 1.26%.

If the above average forecast values ​​are fulfilled, the year-on-year CPI growth rate in 2021 will remain within the regulatory target of around 3%.

The vegetable section of a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.

Photo by China News Service reporter Xie Yiguan

CPI may rise moderately in 2022

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, on January 7, the prices of grain and oil in key wholesale markets were basically the same as a week ago, the price of pork fell by 3.3%, the price of eggs fell by 0.7%, and the average price of 30 kinds of vegetables fell by 0.8%.

　　On the evening of the 10th, in a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, the price tag showed, "The front tip with skin is 8.98 yuan per pound, the back elbow is 9.98 yuan per pound, the front row is 12.98 yuan per pound, and the fresh rib is 24.98 yuan per pound. ." The staff of the supermarket told the reporter of Zhongxin Finance and Economics, "Now the front tip with the skin is discounted, and it only costs 7 yuan per pound."

　　"In July 2021, my country's breeding sow inventory showed an inflection point of growth, and as of October 2021, it has dropped month-on-month for four consecutive months. There is a lag of about 10 months from the start of breeding sows to the recovery of pig prices. Therefore, in the second quarter of 2022, the price of pigs may usher in a new round of upward movement, driving the recovery of CPI." Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst at Haitong Securities, believes.

　　However, Liang Zhonghua also pointed out that the strength of consumption recovery this year, at least the first half of the year, may still be weak. In the context of weak terminal demand, the transmission of PPI to CPI should not be overestimated. CPI is expected to maintain a moderate recovery of around 2-3%. .

　　In the opinion of Zhang Wenyu, a researcher at China Chengxin International Research Institute, "In 2022, as investment and the marginal restoration of the consumer side drive the price recovery of related service industries, and the drag on pork prices on the CPI rise gradually eases, the CPI may show a slight upward trend throughout the year. Considering Affected by the tail-raising factor, it may be the high point of the whole year in the middle of the year.” (End)