France has identified nearly 1.5 million positive cases in one week, which has an impact on the country's economy.
While a destructuring of society is feared for January, is the risk happening now?
Thanks to the waves and the previous lessons, France seems armed to face them.
It is an indicator which does not deceive on the economic health of France: the SNCF announced this Saturday that it would remove 10% of TGV and 20% of Intercités next week due to a drop in reservations. One more clue which shows that "the disorganization of society", so dreaded in January and February because of the number of contagions by the Omicron variant, shows its first effects. 9,000 classes have been closed since the start of the school year, caregivers are exhausted, and staff shortages are felt in the majority of trades requiring face-to-face. Both economically and in terms of health, France is starting January in bad shape.
With 200,000 cases of coronavirus per day on average, it is at least 1.5 million people - and normally ten times more with contact cases - who are forced to be placed in isolation for several days, just this week.
But Stéphanie Villers, an economist specializing in macroeconomics, prefers to see the bright side of things: “France has succeeded for the moment in limiting the damage, because this disorganization had been a little planned.
“Since mid-December, following the English example - which is ten days ahead of our situation - the executive had warned that an Omicron wave could disrupt the country.
Resourceful and resilient
Admittedly, this wave is more violent than expected - the 250,000 cases per day arrived faster than announced -. Nevertheless: it was a minimum prepared. “The massive teleworking is not a surprise, and by dint of undergoing the preceding waves, the companies as the consumers adapt better to a life with limited interactions”, continues Stéphanie Villers. The company is gaining in resilience and adaptation, allowing the economy to have less jolts than during the first or the second wave.
A resourcefulness that will only be possible for a while.
“The whole question is how long France will have to keep its back.
If this does not last too long, the overall impact on the economy can be very limited, ”says Stéphanie Villers.
An impact that is all the more limited, according to economist Christian de Boissieu, when it comes at the right time, in January, a poor month for growth: “Omicron or not, attendance at restaurants, cinemas… and spending is falling. in January, due to spending in December.
Even if it means seeing half the country soon isolate itself, whether it be in January rather than in December or in summer, during crazy and frivolous spending.
Sustain work during the crisis
The fact remains that despite this "good" news, sectors are suffering Omicron head-on. No need to quote them, by dint of knowing them (but let's do it anyway): events, transport, catering…. No closure, but fewer customers and fewer numbers. For them, the government warned that the aid would be maintained and even extended. A reaction that leaves economists more or less skeptical. "Between the prolonged whatever the cost, the historically weak month of January and the resilience of the French, we should not see too much impact on employment and the economy, provided that the peak arrives soon", hopes Christian de Boissieu. If Stéphanie Villers recognizes that these aids will limit further damage, it is also time, according to her, to learn how to do without it: “It is likely that this wave will not be the last,or even other epidemics are coming. The state will not be able to play the insurer forever, companies must learn to do without it. It is also the economic life of a country: with certain changes, certain businesses no longer work. "
For Stéphanie Villers, it is therefore time to adopt a longer-term approach: “With each wave, we learn and we react better to the next one.
Companies must definitely mourn the world before and reflect on a world of work still threatened by a pandemic.
»Further consolidate teleworking, relocations, stock reserves, and maintain them over the long term.
After two years of hardship and surprise, the country, on the strength of its experience, should resist complete paralysis.
But not to a profound change.
Society
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Society
Coronavirus: SNCF will cut TGV and Intercity trains due to a drop in reservations
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