In 2021, the growth rate of many indicators of the real estate market will slow down, and the agency predicts:

　　The average annual sales volume of the property market may return to the level of five years ago

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2021, the sales area of ​​domestic commercial housing was 1,581.31 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and the sales of commercial housing was 16,166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%.

　　This year, the real estate market has undergone many turning points and changes, and has gone out of a wave of "first upswing and then downsizing".

Although the scale of market sales may still break records, throughout 2021, many key indicators of the real estate market, such as sales, development, and land acquisition, have shown a downward trend.

At present, the real estate market has entered a channel of adjustment, the sales of real estate enterprises have slowed down, funds and liabilities are under pressure, and some real estate enterprises have shown difficulties.

Some people in the industry pointed out that the business operation ideas of real estate enterprises have begun to change and adjust, and they are more pursuing stable development.

　　Market size may still reach new highs

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area and sales in 2020 will be 1.76 billion square meters and 1.736 billion yuan respectively.

Crier Research Center calculated that if the growth rate of commercial housing sales in November is maintained in December 2021, the area and amount of commercial housing sales in the past year will increase by 2.1% and 5% respectively compared with 2020.

The agency predicts that the annual sales volume of commercial housing will reach a new high, with the area and value exceeding 1.8 billion square meters and 18 trillion yuan respectively.

　　However, the poor transaction situation of the real estate market, which is still at a high level as a whole, has also become an important feature in 2021.

　　"The cumulative trading amount we counted shows that the first half of the year increased by 36.8% year-on-year. Of course, this is also due to the 2020 epidemic, when the market fell to the bottom in the first quarter." E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Co., Ltd. CEO Ding Zuyu said.

　　The outside world noticed that the apparent "cooling" of the real estate market emerged from the second half of the year and when some real estate companies encountered problems.

But in fact, the relevant statistics have already revealed clues in the first half of the year.

　　According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national real estate development investment growth rate, commercial housing sales area and sales growth rate and other indicators will basically show a downward trend in 2021, of which the growth rate of development investment will increase from 38.3% in January-February. It fell to 6.0% from January to November. At the same time, the real estate development climate index also fell month by month from 101.45, the highest in February, to 100.51 in November, the lowest level in nearly a year.

　　The China Index Research Institute reported that in the 50 key cities it monitors, the transaction area of ​​new urban commercial housing in 2021 will increase slightly year-on-year, and its absolute scale is second only to the same period in 2016. The lowest level in the same period since the beginning of the year, the transaction of newly built commercial residential area in first- and second-tier representative cities increased by 18.0% and 5.8% year-on-year, while the third-tier representative cities decreased by 2.0%.

At the same time, the average monthly transaction area of ​​new commercial residential buildings in 50 cities was about 33.24 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, but in the second half of the year, the year-on-year decrease was more than 20%.

　　In 2021, regulation is still the key word in the market.

According to statistics from the Crane Research Center, as of December 20, 2021, domestic provinces and cities have experienced a total of 249 regulatory policy overweights, including more than 20 in Shenzhen and Guangzhou alone.

From the perspective of the content of regulatory policies, in addition to purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, and sales restrictions, the reference price of second-hand housing has also become the focus of regulation in 2021.

　　Since the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen on February 8 last year and the price lists of thousands of communities in the city were announced, a total of 15 cities across the country have implemented this policy. The superimposed impact of the "price" policy, the cooling of the second-hand housing market is more obvious.

　　Housing expansion slows

　　In the domestic real estate market, the operation and development of real estate enterprises are inseparable from concepts such as loan financing and land development. The scale of real estate enterprises has continued to expand in the past few years, but in 2021, this situation has also changed.

　　In the first half of the year, under the background of the continuous tightening of credit-related policies and the "three red lines" target requirements for housing enterprise financing, the total financing of housing enterprises has declined.

According to incomplete statistics from the Crane Research Center, the financing volume of 100 typical housing companies in 2021 will be 1,287.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26%. The financing volume has experienced negative growth for the first time in the past five years, and has also reached the lowest point in five years.

In terms of quarters, the first quarter saw a slight year-on-year decline, and the year-on-year decline from the second to the fourth quarter continued to expand. In the fourth quarter as of December 20, the financing volume was 176.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55%.

　　Corresponding to the decrease in financing volume, financing costs have fallen. The cost of new bond financing in 2021 is 5.32%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points compared with 2020.

However, the Crane Research Center believes that this is mainly due to the increase in domestic bond issuance and the tightening of the financing environment, which has led to the concentration of bond issuance on outstanding real estate companies, which has lowered the cost of bond issuance.

　　At the same time as financing shrinks, the desire of real estate companies to acquire land for development has also decreased.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2021, the land purchase area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 182.87 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%.

　　After calculating the scale of land supply and demand in 300 cities across the country, the Chinese Academy of Fingerprints came to the conclusion that the scale was significantly reduced.

In 2021, 1.22 billion square meters of residential land will be launched in various cities, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%, and the absolute scale is the lowest in the past four years. The residential land transaction amounted to 840 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1%, and the transfer fee was 4.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. %, while the average transaction floor price was 5,651 yuan/square meter, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%.

　　For many key cities, a new change in the land market in 2021 is the centralized land supply, that is, multiple rounds of centralized land transfers within a year.

The first round of centralized land supply in cities such as Guangzhou attracted competition from real estate companies, but the second and third rounds of centralized land supply since the second half of the year have significantly declined.

　　The Capital Securities Research Report believes that the main reasons are the adjustment of land auction rules in some cities and the return of real estate companies to rationality.

On the one hand, some cities tend to be stricter in strictly examining the development qualifications and funding sources of real estate companies during the second round of land supply. Under the premise of the premise, the enthusiasm for participating in the shooting is low.

　　Further contraction in 2022?

　　As an important player in the market, real estate companies have already sensed changes in the market, so as early as the mid-year report disclosure season in August last year, the management of listed real estate companies more or less put forward "seeking stability".

　　"The rules of the game in the entire industry are changing, and the development thinking of enterprises also needs to be adjusted accordingly. Too much pursuit of scale and speed-oriented linear thinking may be unsustainable." Zhu Jiusheng, President of Vanke, once said that the word "steady" is at the forefront. Vanke's current response.

　　Mo Bin, President of Country Garden, pointed out that the industry as a whole has entered a new stage of development, and good products and services are the foundation for the sound development of the company, and said that Country Garden needs full-cycle comprehensive competitiveness.

　　The report of the Central Index Academy believes that facing the situation of tight financing in the industry, real estate companies focus more on the development of the main business and financial security, and no longer simply pursue scale expansion, and then seek high-quality growth.

　　"According to calculations, it is estimated that the average annual scale of the industry in the next five years will be 1.06 billion - 1.27 billion square meters, and the median will be more than 1.1 billion square meters, which is basically the same as the level from 2015 to 2016." Ding Zuyu believes that if commercial housing is included In total, the annual turnover is still around 15 trillion yuan.

Compared with other industries, the industrial scale of the entire real estate industry is still very large.

　　The Crane Research Center believes that the impact of the overdraft effect of residents' purchasing power has already been demonstrated, and it is expected that the sales volume of commercial housing will further shrink in 2022.

　　It is worth noting that the Central Economic Work Conference held not long ago proposed to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and to implement city-specific policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.

　　Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, believes that this is a manifestation of the modernization of the industry governance system and governance capacity.

"Essentially, it is to treat real estate as an industry, respect its industry rules, neither tool nor demonize, not only eliminate financialization and bubbleization, but also give full play to its status as a pillar industry."

　　■Big coffee says

　　Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Co., Ltd.:

　　future housing company

　　"Path Dependencies" should be changed

　　On the afternoon of December 31, 2021, Ding Zuyu's annual press conference on property market evaluation with the theme of "leapfrog" was held in Shanghai.

At the press conference, Ding Zuyu pointed out that in the past five years, the real estate market has experienced a certain degree of "overdraft" in terms of demand, housing prices, affordability, and supply.

　　"In the past five years, the cumulative transaction volume was 7.4 billion square meters and 63 trillion yuan, accounting for 41% and 56% of the past 20 years. That is to say, it took only 5 years to sell 56% of the amount in the past 20 years." Ding Zuyu pointed out In the past five years, the number of new cities in the top 100 real estate companies accounted for more than 50%. Since 2014, the annual compound annual growth rate of the top 100 real estate companies’ full-caliber sales has reached 25%, and sales, financing and investment have shown rapid expansion.

　　Ding Zuyu believes that changes in the real estate market in 2021 are closely related to market overdrafts, and gave a set of data: in the past 10 years, the balance of personal housing loans has reached 38.1 trillion yuan, and the leverage of residents has risen by 6.68 times, far exceeding the real estate Sales and area sold have grown at a much faster rate than home prices.

　　In addition, the pursuit of scale by real estate enterprises has also led to the fact that the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities of real estate enterprises is higher than that of sales, making the balance sheet in the financial statement a "liability sheet".

　　Ding Zuyu pointed out that real estate companies have experienced the phenomenon of off-balance sheet on-balance sheet.

"In the first half of the year, the on-balance sheet net debt ratio of major listed real estate companies fell below 70%, but this does not mean that debt has really dropped, because off-balance sheet liabilities have been created," he said. In the first half of 2021, 40 real estate companies listed Both on-balance sheet interest-bearing liabilities and off-balance sheet interest-bearing liabilities are 3.8 trillion yuan, with a ratio of 1:1, and the ratio of some companies is as high as 2.3 times. There is no doubt about the pressure.

"The over-financialization of real estate is fundamental to today's crisis."

　　“我觉得今天首先要改变的是‘路径依赖’，”丁祖昱认为，房企高负债、高周转增长模式的前提，建立在房价上升、市场向好、融资保持的基础之上，但当这些前提不复存在后，这种模式无法持续，因此发展路径应当重塑，“未来房企要做的事情，一是长期主义，坚持做‘难而正确’的事情，而是诚信经营，未来要担负更多的社会责任。”

　　南方日报记者 葛政涵