Adhere to marketization and legalization of disposal, and enhance the stability of market expectations—
Steady progress in preventing and dissolving financial risks
Our reporter Chen Guojing
The 2022 People's Bank of China Work Conference held recently pointed out that in 2021, "preventing and resolving financial risks will achieve new results", and then "persistently promote the prevention and resolution of financial risks."
Since 2021, my country's financial risks have generally converged, and market-oriented and legal-based handling of risks has strengthened the stability of market expectations.
Industry experts believe that there is still a long way to go to prevent and resolve risks. In 2022, more attention must be paid to the prevention and resolution of major risks to maintain the overall situation of economic and social stability.
Strengthen supervision and improve prevention and control capabilities
"Currently, my country's financial system is generally operating smoothly, and financial risks are generally convergent and controllable." People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said in an interview with the Economic Daily reporter a few days ago.
Since 2021, the continued upward momentum of my country's macro leverage ratio has been effectively curbed.
Under the impact of the epidemic in 2020, my country's macro leverage ratio has experienced a phased increase. Since 2021, the macro leverage ratio has fallen to a basically stable track.
According to data released by the Central Bank, in the first half of 2021, my country's macro leverage ratio was 274.9%, 4.5 percentage points lower than that at the end of 2020. The leverage ratios of non-financial enterprises, government and household sectors fell by 3.1, 1 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively. , There are varying degrees of decline.
my country's financial risk prevention and control capabilities have been further improved.
A group of prominent risk points were dealt with in an orderly manner.
Risks such as shadow banking, chaotic finance, and illegal fund-raising have been effectively curbed.
Strengthen financial supervision and strengthen anti-monopoly to achieve tangible results.
The risk management of key groups and large enterprises has been steadily advanced.
Promote the continued pressure drop in the stock of high-risk institutions, and the number of high-risk institutions has been significantly reduced.
In 2021, in order to resolutely promote anti-monopoly and prevent the disorderly expansion of capital, the financial regulatory authority interviewed 14 leading online financial platforms to guide and urge them to conduct in-depth self-examination and rectification of violations.
Set up "traffic lights" for capital, strengthen effective supervision of capital in accordance with the law, and support and guide the standardized and healthy development of capital.
In addition, the financial regulatory authorities are determined to continue to crack down on virtual currency trading hype.
The central bank has taken the lead in establishing a normalized working mechanism, and has always maintained a high pressure on virtual currency transaction speculation. At the same time, it has instructed banks and payment institutions to monitor and promptly handle accounts involving virtual currency transaction speculation.
Coordinate with relevant departments to guide the Internet platform to comprehensively investigate and clean up the virtual currency transaction marketing promotion content, and investigate and deal with virtual currency dealers suspected of illegal crimes in accordance with the law.
It also reminds the general public to consciously stay away from virtual currency trading hype and maintain their own property security.
As of the end of 2021, the number of people participating in virtual currency trading speculation in China has been significantly reduced, and all walks of life are increasingly aware of the dangers of trading speculation.
Focus on the key and keep the bottom line
“Although the overall financial risks are currently controllable and converging, the challenges of local financial risks to the overall economic and financial stability should not be underestimated.” Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that since 2021, my country’s economy will continue to recover stably and financial operations will remain stable. smooth.
However, the economic and financial situation at home and abroad is undergoing profound changes, and uncertain factors are increasing. It is very important to persevere in preventing and deflating financial risks.
In 2022, what are the key areas for preventing and resolving financial risks?
Yin Zhentao, director of the Financial Technology Research Office of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the main hidden dangers of systemic financial risks facing my country are reflected in the following three aspects: one is the risk of local government debt, especially the high level of hidden debt in some places; the other is real estate Market risks are particularly manifested in individual large-scale real estate companies with excessive debt; the third is the risks of some small and medium-sized banks, especially due to the impact of the epidemic and the external environment.
"In the coming period, prevention and resolution of financial risks need to focus on three areas." Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, believes that first, we must take practical measures to increase support for small and medium banks and maintain the stability of the banking system; second, we must meet The reasonable financing needs of real estate companies and the reasonable housing consumption needs of buyers will realize a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. The third is to further consolidate the main responsibility of local governments to prevent and control local government debt risks from spreading to the financial system.
In 2021, individual real estate companies will be exposed to risks due to their own mismanagement and blind diversification expansion.
After individual real estate companies were in danger, relevant departments and local governments have taken active measures to resolve risks in a safe and orderly manner, and meet the normal financing needs of residents and real estate companies. Market expectations are gradually improving.
However, in the view of industry experts, the real estate industry involves a wide range of risks, and the hidden dangers still require great attention.
According to Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "complying the responsibilities of local governments, financial supervision, and industry leaders, and consolidating the main responsibility of enterprises for self-rescue", indicating that risks in the real estate industry have attracted great attention. Preventing and dissolving risks in the real estate industry will be one of the priorities in 2022. The bottom line of systemic risks will not occur and will not be allowed to have an impact on financial security.
Improving the mechanism to compact responsibility
The Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago reiterated the sixteen-character policy of "stabilizing the overall situation, overall coordination, classified policies, and precise bomb disposal", and strengthened the financial rule of law and perfected long-term mechanisms as the fundamental ideas to prevent and resolve various risks.
Preventing and dissolving financial risks, and further strengthening and improving financial supervision is one of the key points.
Yin Zhentao believes that overall coordination is the key. Overall coordination is mainly to solve the problems of supervision between regulators and between the central and local governments, while coordination is to solve the existing division of labor and cooperation problems of regulators, and how to solve the existing financial cross-fields. Regulatory issues.
The Central Economic Work Conference once again proposed to strengthen the construction of the financial rule of law, which is the basis for the supervision of "there are laws to follow, all laws must be followed, law enforcement must be strict, and violations must be investigated". In particular, it is worthwhile to accelerate the formulation of the "Financial Stability Law" expect.
In terms of financial supervision, Dong Ximiao believes that, on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen supervision and coordination, implement functional supervision and behavior supervision, and improve the effectiveness of supervision.
On the other hand, it is necessary to make full use of financial technology, especially regulatory technology, to improve the level of digital and intelligent supervision and improve the accuracy of supervision.
From the disposal of Baoshang Bank and other cases, it can be found that financial risks and financial corruption are often intertwined.
Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the financial rule of law, punish financial corruption, strengthen the construction of the financial supervision cadre team, and improve the integrity of the financial system cadre team.
"In addition, it should be further realized that preventing and resolving major risks is'demining', not'detonation'." Dong Ximiao believes that secondary risks should be prevented in the process of dealing with major risks.
In the face of the complex and volatile internal and external situation, market confidence and expectations have not yet fully recovered, and they have a certain degree of vulnerability and sensitivity.
Therefore, to prevent and resolve major risks, we must fully consider the tolerance of the market, and eliminate relevant risks in an orderly manner while maintaining the stable operation of the economy.
When formulating policies, all departments should make overall plans and take all factors into consideration, so as to avoid the superposition of local policies and bring negative impacts, resulting in "composite fallacy." Dissimilation of behavior leads to "decomposition fallacy".
Fundamentally speaking, high-quality economic development is the most important risk prevention measure.
Therefore, the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention must be properly handled, and major risks must be prevented, resolved and dealt with in the course of high-quality economic development.
To prevent and defuse financial risks, it is also necessary to consolidate the responsibilities of all parties and give full play to their roles.
Dong Ximiao believes that preventing and resolving financial risks cannot only rely on financial management departments.
The financial industry needs to further improve the corporate governance mechanism of financial institutions, and enhance the endogenous mechanism and ability to prevent risks; it is necessary to improve and perfect the financial supervision system of local governments, and promote local governments to play a major role in territorial risk management.
At the same time, speed up the reform of state-owned enterprises, establish and improve the responsibility and loss sharing mechanism of enterprises, finance, and the government; accelerate the improvement of the social credit system, strengthen the construction of financial infrastructure, and increase the sharing of credit information in accordance with laws and regulations; intensify punishments and crackdowns The behavior of evading debts has greatly increased the cost of violations of laws and regulations in the financial sector, and created a good financial ecological environment.
Chen Guojing