In 2021, what will happen to the pharmaceutical industry in 2022?
Text / Yangcheng Evening News reporter Chen Zeyun
On December 31, 2021, the A-share year ended. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 4.8% for the year, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 12.02%.
On that day, the Chinese medicine sector was active, which drove the overall increase of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index by 1.04%, boosting the pharmaceutical sector, which has fluctuated and declined since the second half of the year.
Comparing the "high-flying progress" of the pharmaceutical sector in 2020, the overall trend of the pharmaceutical sector in 2021 can be described as twists and turns, and it is also upgrading and evolving in the adjustment and reshuffle.
In 2021, 60 pharmaceutical companies will be listed on A-shares, the number hitting a five-year high, but at the same time, many new stocks, including BeiGene, have seen rare listing breaks.
Flush iFind data shows that in 2021, among the A-share medical and biological sector companies, after excluding sub-new shares and new shares, more than half of their share prices have increased.
On the whole, many pharmaceutical stocks including Hengrui Pharmaceuticals and Intech Healthcare have gradually faded. Small and medium-sized market capitalization companies have performed well, and the CXO (pharmaceutical outsourcing services) track has taken the lead.
"Investment enthusiasm has receded. The original financing bubble, especially the high-premium financing of high-level repeated innovative products, has begun to ebb, and capital has become rational." At the outpost of the 33rd National Medical Economic Information Conference held a few days ago, the state Lin Jianning, Secretary of the Party Committee of the Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics of the Drug Administration, said this.
The wind direction of the capital market directly reflects the transformation and changes of the industry. Since 2021, under the policies of centralized procurement and control fees, the medical reform has been continuously deepened, my country's pharmaceutical industry has entered a period of adjustment, drug supervision has accelerated internationalization, and the approval of new drugs has accelerated …In the face of changes, what new changes will the pharmaceutical industry have in 2022?
What investment opportunities will there be?
"
Nearly 60% of pharmaceutical stocks rose, leading stocks fell
Since 2021, the pharmaceutical sector has fluctuated and declined, with a particularly significant decline in the second half of the year.
Wind data shows that since 2021, Shenwan Pharmaceutical has dropped 5.73%, ranking 26th among all 31 first-level SW industries.
A reporter from the Yangcheng Evening News found that according to Flush statistics, in terms of individual stocks, excluding new stocks listed in 2021, as of December 31, among 364 stocks, 193 stocks rose, accounting for 52%.
Among them, Jiu'an Medical from the Chinese medicine sector led the way with a growth rate of 496%. Senxuan Pharmaceutical, Bairen Medical, Tofflon, Medicilon and other stocks have increased by more than 200% annually. A total of 24 pharmaceutical stocks have increased by 100% this year. Of the above, nine of them have a market value of less than 10 billion yuan, and the rest are concentrated in the range of 10 billion to 50 billion yuan. It can be seen that the top gainers are mostly concentrated in small and medium-sized market value companies.
At the same time, nearly half of the pharmaceutical stocks are estimated to have recorded negative growth this year. Among them, the leading innovative drug stock Hengrui Pharmaceuticals has fallen 54% annually. It has been surpassed by Mindray Medical and WuXi AppTec. In the third place, the share prices of leading stocks from vaccines, medical devices, and pharmaceutical consumption such as Kangtai Medical, Intech Medical, and Dashenlin have all been "halved."
On the whole, the pharmaceutical white horse stocks, which are highly sought after by institutions in 2020, will see a sharp decline in their share prices in 2021.
13 pharmaceutical companies enter the 100 billion club
Yangcheng Evening News reporter combed and found that from the perspective of total market value, currently 13 pharmaceutical companies in A shares have entered the 100 billion club. It is worth noting that 4 of them are in the field of CXO (Contract X Organization, R&D, production and sales contract organization). Enterprises, including WuXi AppTec, Tigermed, Kanglong Chemical, and Kailai Ying.
CXO is the most active segment of pharmaceutical stocks in 2021. Since 2021, more than 60% of the stocks in this sector have risen. Medicilon's increase has reached 210%, and Boten's shares have increased by more than 150% during the year.
"Affected by the policy, the pharmaceutical sector will have twists and turns in 2021." Ping An Securities Research reported that from January to February 2021, the market maintained a group market at the end of 2020, and the sector continued to fluctuate upward; in March, liquidity expectations during the Spring Festival were tightened. The high valuation leader caused by the group has fallen; from April to June, the performance of the CXO sector continued to exceed expectations, driving a new round of market conditions for medicine; from July to October, the new policy of the Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) of the State Drug Administration After the introduction of a series of policies, the performance of some leading medical service providers in the third quarterly report was lower than expected, causing the sector to continue to fall; since November, after adjustments, negative factors have been fully released. Steady upward under the game market.
60 new pharmaceutical stocks are listed to a new high
At the end of 2021, the enthusiasm for listing of pharmaceutical stocks in the A-share market remains unabated.
On December 30, 2021, Chunli Medical was listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
Public information shows that Chunli Medical was established in 1998 and is a leading orthopedic medical device manufacturer in China. Its main business is the research and development, production and sales of implantable orthopedic medical devices. The main products are joint prosthesis products and spinal implants. product.
Chunli Medical once raised 186 million yuan to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March 2015. This time the "back to A" secondary listing, Chunli Medical plans to raise 2.078 billion yuan for orthopedic implants and supporting materials. Comprehensive construction projects, R&D center construction projects, marketing network construction projects and supplementary working capital.
The reporter combed and found that since 2021, a total of 60 pharmaceutical stocks have been listed on A-shares, while the numbers in 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 8, 17, 47, respectively. It can be said that the number of listed pharmaceutical stocks in 2021 is a record. new highs.
But the other side of the enthusiasm for listing is the rare break of new pharmaceutical stocks.
Among them, Corfu Medical (301087, SZ), Hualan (301093, SZ), Chengda Bio-tech (688739, SH) fell 4.43%, 10.09% and 27.27% respectively on the first day of listing.
The break of multiple new stocks shows that capital tends to be rational
The most shocking thing to the outside world is the break of BeiGene (688235, SH), a leading innovative drug company.
On December 1st and 5th, BeiGene officially landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, becoming the world's first innovative pharmaceutical company listed on the "A+H+N" (A shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks).
However, the stock price fell 16.42% on the first day, and the closing price was 160.98 yuan per share.
As the leading company in the innovative drug track, BeiGene has 3 self-developed drugs currently on the market, namely BTK small molecule inhibitor Baiyueze and anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody Bezean (Tilelizumab). Injection) and PARP inhibitor Baihuize.
There are also 8 self-developed drug candidates in clinical research and 37 collaborative products in clinical or commercialization stage.
BeiGene's break may be related to its unprofitable profit.
As the company is a biotechnology company, it currently maintains a continuous high R&D investment. As of June 30, 2021, the company's accumulated undistributed profit was -30.076 billion yuan.
Chunli Medical, which was listed on the Sci-tech Innovation Board on December 30, was also unable to escape the curse. The issue price of the stock was 29.81 yuan per share. The opening price and the issue price were flat on that day. Soon after the market opened, it fell 8.82% and broke the issue. 3.99%.
“BeiGene’s break-up of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Ingram Medical’s abandonment of Hong Kong stock IPOs due to low pricing should also cause industry to ponder.” Lin Jianning, Party Secretary of the Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics of the State Drug Administration, pointed out. Capital has a great role in boosting pharmaceutical innovation, especially after the launch of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, my country's pharmaceutical independent innovation can be said to have reached a new level.
However, the emergence of the break also shows that the original financing bubble, especially the high-premium financing of high-level repeated innovation products, has begun to ebb, and capital is becoming rational.
Statistics from Ping An Securities show that under the incubation of the capital market, the number of innovative companies listed on A-shares has also increased from 4 in 2012 to 116 in 2021. The further enrichment of selectable targets also makes the capital market re-examine high-quality innovative drug companies. Standards.
In the pharmaceutical sector, the effect of “making money with new eyes closed” is no longer valid, and it also reflects that the pharmaceutical industry has experienced an overall valuation correction after the entire year of 2020's triumphant advancement.
The Beijing Capital Securities Research Report believes that after a year of correction, the valuation of the pharmaceutical industry has been reasonably low and has a certain margin of safety.
32 new drugs have been approved for marketing
The listing of pharmaceutical stocks frequently breaks and the leading stocks have suffered setbacks. Can the long-term upward trend of the pharmaceutical industry continue?
In this regard, many experts said that 2020-2021 will be a year for the continuous deepening of national and local joint procurement of medicines. In particular, 2021 has the highest frequency of national and local centralized procurement over the years, and the policy pressure is stronger than in previous years.
Under the dual pressure of policy concerns and the epidemic, the pharmaceutical industry will not perform well in 2021. However, in the long run, in the context of economic development and demographic dividend development, the trend of consumption upgrading is irreversible, and the upgrading of medical services and other consumer products under consumption upgrades, etc. Opportunities will continue to emerge.
Although capital has begun to "dispel the fire", innovation is still the direction that China's pharmaceutical industry should take.
Data show that from January to November 2021, 46 new drugs were approved by the FDA, and 32 new drugs were approved by the State Food and Drug Administration in the first three quarters, showing a significant increase in speed.
"Innovative drugs are shifting from price orientation to value return, and everyone is more concerned with the value of new drugs." Lin Jianning pointed out.
Zhang Buyong, President of Punctuation, General Manager and Chief Researcher of Meinenet, pointed out that the market size of terminal innovative drugs in public medical institutions in 2019 is less than 100 billion yuan, but it is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound growth rate of 15%. %-25% interval.
According to data from Meinenet, in 2020, in the six major markets of the three terminals, innovative drugs such as monoclonal antibodies and tinib have successfully squeezed into the top 20 best-selling brands, and are growing rapidly, and the market potential cannot be underestimated.
"The era of blockbuster launching of innovative drugs is slowly passing by, and the time window for policy to give'pan-innovation' is getting shorter and shorter." Guosheng Securities believes that my country's innovative drug market has slowly entered from "pan-innovation" at the moment. The moment of "selected, high-quality and innovative".
Reshuffle innovation is still the direction
"China's innovative drugs are accelerating their internationalization." Lin Jianning said that the R&D of Chinese pharmaceutical companies has become an international force, and international cooperation between pharmaceutical companies has become more frequent. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are not only introducing projects, but also outputting results.
A reporter from the Yangcheng Evening News noticed that the number of cases of overseas authorization of domestic innovative drugs is also increasing. Data shows that from 2020 to February 2021, a total of 29 transactions of domestic innovative drugs authorized overseas, with a disclosed amount of approximately US$14.8 billion. The multinational pharmaceutical giant Novartis , AbbVie, Eli Lilly, Roche, and Pfizer are the main payers, and the quality of Chinese innovative drugs has gradually gained international recognition.
"After the enthusiasm for innovation and transformation has cooled, companies that are down-to-earth development companies and companies and products that take me-too (derivative drugs) innovation shortcuts will begin to differentiate. Products that take shortcuts will return to a similar price competition situation as generic drugs. Mainly for price competition; and independent innovative products have begun to go abroad, join global competition, and explore a broader market for independent pricing. Therefore, in the second reshuffle stage, we believe that we should pay attention to independent innovative companies with sustainable development potential in the future , And innovative drug products with high clinical value and barriers.” Ping An Securities believes.