The New Year's trend is positive and the spring market can be expected

  Last year, the A-share market closed the year again, and the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rose for three consecutive years.

Standing at the starting point of the new year, looking at the above stock index, this year the Shanghai Stock Index will start again at 3,639.78, and completely lift the "lid" above 3,700 points, perhaps in the spring season when the flowers are blooming and the earth is rejuvenating.

  This "lid" at 3700 o'clock has been "lid" for 6 years since the end of 2015.

Just last year, the A-share market had three "lifting" moves, namely in February in spring, September in autumn and December in winter, and the index rushed above 3,700 points.

  The power accumulation has been for a long time. Since the low of 2440 points in January 2019, especially since the low of 2646 points in March 2020, the market lows have risen one by one. Last year, it mainly ran above 3400 points (short-term). The lowest I have seen 3312 points), the restlessness broke through 3700 points briefly but there were three times, completely "lifting" like an arrow on the string, it can be said that it is inevitable, only a spring thunder.

  Last year, when the market closed at noon on December 29, which is the half-day trading that came to the third trading day from the bottom of the year, A shares set a record high in the annual turnover, breaking through the previous record of 254.7 trillion yuan in 2015. In the end, it reached a record high of 257.16 trillion yuan for the whole year, a significant increase of 24.76% year-on-year.

  This is a market torrent that is difficult to suppress. Statistics further show that last year there were 148 days of daily transactions exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while in 2020 and 2019 such trillion yuan transaction days were only 48 days and 11 days; from July 21 From the beginning of the day, the turnover broke one trillion yuan for 49 consecutive trading days, setting a new record.

There is a saying in stocks: “The quantity is the price, and the quantity comes first.” Based on this, it is not difficult to predict that the Shanghai stock index will rise again.

  In the last week of last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell first and then stabilized, and closed at 3,639.78 points for the whole year, an annual increase of 4.80%.

This column pointed out last week that around New Year’s Day the year before last was a turning point for the market’s shift from adjustment to longing. The situation is somewhat similar to the current one. The turning point may be after New Year’s Day this year.

Now it seems that the similarity is 80 to 90%.

It can be expected that the market will officially break through 3700 points in the month before the Spring Festival, and this year's spring market will also be expected.

(Jingu Ming)

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