Sino-Singapore Jingwei, January 5 (Dong Xiangyi) How did the property market perform in the past 2021?
According to data from Centaline Real Estate Research Center, in 2021, the property market will be adjusted as high as 651 times, setting a new historical record, with a year-on-year increase of 33%.
According to expert analysis, the overall real estate regulation and control policy in 2021 will be tightened in the first half of the year, and stable regulation and control policies will be gradually introduced after the market is downgraded in the second half of the year.
The number of property market regulation and control in 2021 hits a new high
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Statistics from Centaline Real Estate Research Center show that with the stability of credit policies, policies for stabilizing the real estate market in various regions will be frequently released in 2021. The most typical policy content is talent subsidies and housing purchase subsidies.
According to incomplete statistics, in December last year, nearly 25 cities, including Guilin, Jinjiang, Hohhot, Jingmen, Hengyang, Kaifeng, Nanning, Baoding, etc., all put out "real money" in order to boost the real estate market.
Under the influence of these policies, the number of real estate adjustments in December last year reached 65 times, which is the highest point of the number of policies in recent months.
On the whole, in 2021, the year-on-year growth rate reached 651 times as high as 33% (with a total of 489 adjustments in 2020), and at the same time set a new historical record, with an average of 54 adjustments per month.
Expert: release multiple signals
New latitude and longitude in the data map
In 2021, there will be more than 650 real estate regulation and control, a record high. What signal is released?
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, pointed out to Sino-Singapore Jingwei-Signal 1: Since November-December 2021, the overall real estate policy has changed, and policy warm winds have blown frequently, especially the central bank and local governments to maintain real estate stability policies continue to appear and restrict Policies for irrational market downgrades have also continued to be introduced.
In December last year, real estate policies in various regions were significantly relaxed. More than 25 cities issued different levels of subsidized housing purchase policies, mainly focusing on talent subsidies and subsidies for new city residents to settle down and purchase houses.
Signal 2: The bottom of the policy appears, and credit returns to normal.
The central government emphasizes the goal of "no real estate speculation" and "three stability", and keeps the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks.
On the whole, market housing loans are gradually developing in a stable direction.
Signal 3: At present, the credit backlog in cities has been significantly eased. With the gradual easing of housing loans, the biggest factor affecting the real estate market recently, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter of 2022.
First- and second-tier cities will be the first to get out of the downturn.
Signal 4: In the first half of 2021, the real estate regulation and control policies will be tightened, and stable regulation and control policies will be gradually introduced after the market downgrades in the second half of the year.
In the whole year of 2021, the real estate market has undergone a transition from a high fever in the first half of the year to a deep adjustment in the second half of the year.
Signal 5: In 2022, China’s real estate regulation will insist on “housing and staying without speculation”, strengthen expectations and guidance, explore new development models, insist on simultaneous rental and purchase, accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, and support the better satisfaction of the commercial housing market The reasonable housing needs of homebuyers will promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies.
2022 housing price forecast: overall stability is expected to be maintained
New latitude and longitude in the data map
The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference once again emphasized that "housing and housing should not be speculated."
Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Markets Department of the Central Bank, said, “Project mergers and acquisitions between real estate companies are the most effective market-oriented means for the real estate industry to resolve risks and achieve clearing.
E-House Research Institute analyzed that since the second half of 2021, the real estate market has entered a downward channel. It is expected that the commercial housing sales market will continue to be sluggish in 2022. Although the monetary policy will be loosened to a certain extent, the difficulties in real estate business operations are still difficult to effectively alleviate. The pressure on the investment side is transmitted to the investment side, and the confidence of real estate companies in acquiring land is difficult to recover. The "three red lines" and real estate loan concentration management will continue to be implemented. It is expected that the area of land transactions will continue to decline, but the decline will be narrowed; land transactions The average price increase has fallen; the premium rate remains at a historically low level, and the prefecture market will continue to cool down.
In terms of credit, Zhang Dawei believes that in the past few years, the rapid expansion of the real estate industry has mainly relied on a fast turnover strategy + high leverage.
This kind of development is unsustainable. The virtuous circle should be to continue to reduce the leverage of enterprises and increase the supervision of pre-sale funds to ensure the stable construction of developers, the overall market is stable, and credit will not be too tight, nor will it reappear.
In terms of housing prices, Ding Zuyu, CEO of E-House Enterprise Group, predicts that in 2022, the overall housing prices across the country may stop falling and stabilize in the first quarter. This is mainly due to the fact that the new housing market has cooled for half a year. Confidence in the industry is gradually recovering, and some local governments have issued "restriction orders". The climax of substantial discounts by real estate companies due to capital flow problems has passed. Housing prices are expected to remain stable in 2022, and the market may maintain a slight rebound in the second half of the year.
Specifically, housing prices in first-tier cities will maintain their current high levels, mainly based on the abundant purchasing power of residents; the overall housing prices in second-tier cities remain stable, and housing prices in some cities may increase.
Downward pressure on third- and fourth-tier cities is still huge.
The overall housing price of the second-hand housing market is not as strong as the first-hand housing. In particular, the introduction of guidance prices for second-hand housing in many places will also affect market expectations and further affect the prices of second-hand housing.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use it in other ways.