From January to November 2021, prices for secondary real estate in Russia increased by an average of 18%.

Such data were presented by RT to the rating agency National Credit Ratings.

According to NKR analysts, the prices for ready-made housing rose the most in Krasnodar Territory (by 45%), Magadan Region (40%), Kamchatka Territory (38%), Kaliningrad Region and the Republic of Karelia (36%).

At the same time, the lowest rates of price growth (less than 10%) were recorded in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Sverdlovsk Oblast.

“Prices for secondary housing are growing following the market for new buildings.

The main factor behind the rise in housing prices in 2021 is the high demand for real estate in the first half of the year ahead of changes to the preferential mortgage program.

Also influenced by low rates on deposits in banks, in connection with which people transferred part of their deposits to real estate, ”said Alexander Divakov, director of the NKR corporate ratings group.

As the specialists of the Avito Real Estate service told RT, in November 2021, housing prices in new buildings were on average 33% higher compared to the same period in 2020.

The cost of new apartments has increased most noticeably in Moscow, Omsk and Rostov-on-Don - by about one and a half times.

Least of all per square meter rose in price in St. Petersburg (14%) and Novosibirsk (18%).

“The growth in the cost of new housing is largely due to the systematic increase in prices for building materials.

Also influenced by the rise in labor costs in construction.

I note that these processes began in 2020, "said Dmitry Alekseev, head of the company's primary and suburban real estate business, to RT.

Price braking

However, in the near future the growth in housing prices in Russia may slow down.

This assumption was made at the end of December by the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.

“We have now passed this peak (growth. -

RT

) of real estate prices.

I think that they will not grow at such a rate, ”Nabiullina said on the air of the Russia 24 TV channel.

According to experts from Avito Real Estate, the demand for housing in Russia has already begun to gradually decline.

At the same time, additional pressure on prices may be exerted by the growth in supply on the real estate market observed today.

Oleg Samoilov, Vice President of the Russian Guild of Realtors, shared this opinion in an interview with RT.

“Already, the cost of new housing is not growing at such a high rate that could be observed in 2020 and the first half of 2021.

Although loans for business are becoming more expensive amid an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, developers are no longer in a hurry to seriously raise prices, as they understand that they are working in a competing market, ”Samoilov said.

According to preliminary government estimates, in 2021, the volume of housing commissioning in Russia exceeded the planned levels by 15% and reached 90 million square meters.

The value became the highest in the entire post-Soviet period.

“Against this background, already in the second half of the year we will see a cooling of the market, and by the end of 2022, prices for new buildings are likely to grow no higher than the inflation rate.

The increase in the value of the secondary property traditionally proceeds at a slower pace, since sellers of finished housing often react to changes in market conditions not so quickly, "added Oleg Samoilov.

According to preliminary estimates of Rosstat, in 2021 inflation in Russia was 8.4%.

At the same time, the Central Bank plans to achieve a decrease in the indicator to the level of 4-4.5% in 2022.

At the same time, NKR experts believe that this year the rise in prices for new buildings in Russia will be higher than the projected inflation, but noticeably lower compared to 2021.

According to analysts' forecast, in conditions of still rising prices for building materials, the cost per square meter in new houses may increase by at least 8-10%.

At the same time, the agency's experts expect an increase in mortgage rates.

According to the latest data from the Central Bank, the average interest on housing loans for 11 months of 2021 rose from 7.36 to 7.59% per annum.

At the same time, NKR analysts predict the growth of the indicator to 9-10% per annum in 2022.

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At the same time, the affordability of home purchase will remain high for many Russians due to the action of a number of preferential programs, according to experts interviewed by RT.

So, for example, today, families with one or more children born after January 1, 2018 have the opportunity to take out a mortgage at 6% per annum.

In this case, the maximum loan amount depends on the region: for Moscow, St. Petersburg, Moscow and Leningrad regions, it is 12 million rubles, and for other subjects of the country - 6 million rubles.

Also, until July 1, 2022, all Russians can apply for a loan for the purchase of housing in a new building worth not more than 3 million rubles at a rate of up to 7% per annum.

At the same time, the authorities can take additional measures to improve the living conditions of citizens, said the vice-president of the International Academy of Mortgage and Real Estate Irina Radchenko.

“Preferential mortgages at 7% no longer arouse such interest among Russians as it was at the start of the initiative.

I do not exclude that the government will introduce a new program on different terms, which will revive the market and generate effective demand.

In the sphere of secondary housing, a slightly different dynamics will develop: some sellers can make discounts on lots in order to sell an apartment faster, or the housing exchange scheme will be popular again, "Radchenko concluded.