The final consumer is already noticing in the few days that go from 2022 how

sellers have decided to transfer

the

increase in costs

they have suffered for a few months

to final prices

.

The

CPI

had been warning for months that prices are rising compared to last year, but to date economists agreed that

the increase was temporary -

caused, among other things, by the base effect and the mismatch between supply and demand after the pandemic - and in that it was mainly due to

higher energy prices.

The December data, however, (rise of

6.7% in the general index and 2.1% in the

core

index

-without energy and fresh food-), has cast doubt on the timing of inflation and there are those who warn that

the dreaded second-round effects are now a reality.

They refer to the possibility that price increases could initiate an

inflationary spiral

in one of two ways: if companies end up yielding to worker pressure and agree to

raise

wages

in line with inflation, or if they decide to

transfer the increase from costs

of supplies to

final rates

charged to the consumer.

Although

the transfer via salaries is still contained

(salaries by agreement rise 1.49%),

generalized price increases

are already detected

in many products, not only energy and food.

"The rise in inflation (to 6.7% year-on-year in December) once again exceeded forecasts and

it cannot be ruled out that it was due

, at least in part,

to second-round purposes,

" said

Rafael Doménech

, chief economist of

BBVA's

research services

when the advance CPI for December was known.

Raymond Torres

, director of the economic situation at

Funcas

, specifies to EL MUNDO that "

second-round effects

are taking place

in the prices of the products most exposed to the rise in prices of all types of natural resources (electro-intensive sectors, furniture, paper, etc. .) ".

The

wages

, however, "are now acting as a

dam

, " he says, so that second -

round effects are occurring only in one direction.

Central banks on the lookout for widespread increases

In addition to small

businesses or hotels

, large companies such as Ikea have already announced price increases for this year due to rising costs.

If these increases become general, the second-round effects will be palpable and

central banks

will have no choice but to tighten their monetary policy.

So far, they cling to the elements that allow them to think that inflation will moderate (such as the fact that wages are contained and consumer goods have not skyrocketed).

The

European Central Bank

has not considered

raising interest rates

because it would be very harmful to the economic recovery, but if the second-round effects expand, it will have no choice but to raise them.

"

There are elements that paint regular

. The new omicron variant has increased pessimism about

value chains

and these are the ones that influence the price of intermediate goods. I think that the production chains are going to continue stuck and the prices will continue to rise. prices of many products, which

will force many companies to raise prices,

"

Enrique Féas,

principal investigator at

the Elcano Royal Institute

, points out to this medium

.

The

General Council of Economists

took advantage of the update of its economic forecasts on Monday to warn that

inflation is beginning to be structural.

"

The increase in the prices

of energy products

is being passed on by producers

, which is influencing the prices of the rest of the products. This means that the increase in inflation is no longer temporary, but, in part, be

structural,

"they warned.

Along the same lines, the

PMI index

published by the consulting firm Markit reflected that companies in

the industrial sector

are stockpiling materials due to fear of a lack of supplies and, given that the price of these inputs continues to rise strongly, they are already

transferring it at the final prices.

"The December survey indicated that

fees charged increased at a rate only slightly slower than

the series

record

seen in November, as companies faced another rapid rise in input costs. Companies surveyed commented that the vast majority of raw materials have risen in price, as have costs related to energy, electricity and transport services ", they collect.

January is a month in which prices traditionally fall, among other things due to the sales effect, warns

Gregorio Izquierdo

, general director of the

Institute for Economic Studies

(IEE), but even this year large stores will moderate their discounts due to the rising costs, which will do little to deflate prices.

This expert remains optimistic about price developments.

"

Second-round effects are not going to take place in a generalized way as they did in the past.

We think that there is awareness, firstly, that it is transitory and, secondly, that second-round effects could aggravate inflation and make it persistent, instead of solving the problem, "he says.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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