The final consumer is already noticing in the few days that go from 2022 how
sellers have decided to transfer
the
increase in costs
they have suffered for a few months
to final prices
.
The
CPI
had been warning for months that prices are rising compared to last year, but to date economists agreed that
the increase was temporary -
caused, among other things, by the base effect and the mismatch between supply and demand after the pandemic - and in that it was mainly due to
higher energy prices.
The December data, however, (rise of
6.7% in the general index and 2.1% in the
core
index
-without energy and fresh food-), has cast doubt on the timing of inflation and there are those who warn that
the dreaded second-round effects are now a reality.
They refer to the possibility that price increases could initiate an
inflationary spiral
in one of two ways: if companies end up yielding to worker pressure and agree to
raise
wages
in line with inflation, or if they decide to
transfer the increase from costs
of supplies to
final rates
charged to the consumer.
Although
the transfer via salaries is still contained
(salaries by agreement rise 1.49%),
generalized price increases
are already detected
in many products, not only energy and food.
"The rise in inflation (to 6.7% year-on-year in December) once again exceeded forecasts and
it cannot be ruled out that it was due
, at least in part,
to second-round purposes,
" said
Rafael Doménech
, chief economist of
BBVA's
research services
when the advance CPI for December was known.
Raymond Torres
, director of the economic situation at
Funcas
, specifies to EL MUNDO that "
second-round effects
are taking place
in the prices of the products most exposed to the rise in prices of all types of natural resources (electro-intensive sectors, furniture, paper, etc. .) ".
The
wages
, however, "are now acting as a
dam
, " he says, so that second -
round effects are occurring only in one direction.
Central banks on the lookout for widespread increases
In addition to small
businesses or hotels
, large companies such as Ikea have already announced price increases for this year due to rising costs.
If these increases become general, the second-round effects will be palpable and
central banks
will have no choice but to tighten their monetary policy.
So far, they cling to the elements that allow them to think that inflation will moderate (such as the fact that wages are contained and consumer goods have not skyrocketed).
The
European Central Bank
has not considered
raising interest rates
because it would be very harmful to the economic recovery, but if the second-round effects expand, it will have no choice but to raise them.
"
There are elements that paint regular
. The new omicron variant has increased pessimism about
value chains
and these are the ones that influence the price of intermediate goods. I think that the production chains are going to continue stuck and the prices will continue to rise. prices of many products, which
will force many companies to raise prices,
"
Enrique Féas,
principal investigator at
the Elcano Royal Institute
, points out to this medium
.
The
General Council of Economists
took advantage of the update of its economic forecasts on Monday to warn that
inflation is beginning to be structural.
"
The increase in the prices
of energy products
is being passed on by producers
, which is influencing the prices of the rest of the products. This means that the increase in inflation is no longer temporary, but, in part, be
structural,
"they warned.
Along the same lines, the
PMI index
published by the consulting firm Markit reflected that companies in
the industrial sector
are stockpiling materials due to fear of a lack of supplies and, given that the price of these inputs continues to rise strongly, they are already
transferring it at the final prices.
"The December survey indicated that
fees charged increased at a rate only slightly slower than
the series
record
seen in November, as companies faced another rapid rise in input costs. Companies surveyed commented that the vast majority of raw materials have risen in price, as have costs related to energy, electricity and transport services ", they collect.
January is a month in which prices traditionally fall, among other things due to the sales effect, warns
Gregorio Izquierdo
, general director of the
Institute for Economic Studies
(IEE), but even this year large stores will moderate their discounts due to the rising costs, which will do little to deflate prices.
This expert remains optimistic about price developments.
"
Second-round effects are not going to take place in a generalized way as they did in the past.
We think that there is awareness, firstly, that it is transitory and, secondly, that second-round effects could aggravate inflation and make it persistent, instead of solving the problem, "he says.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
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