Without new debt rules with a bite, the burden in several euro countries threatens to continue to rise unchecked.

The German Economic Institute (IW), which is close to the employer, ran through the further development for five countries.

In short, the result is: Only in Portugal and Greece is a reduction in the share of national debt in economic output realistic in the next two decades.

In contrast, the debt ratios in France, Spain and Italy are likely to continue to rise.

Manfred Schäfers

Business correspondent in Berlin.

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These five countries are already significantly exceeding the requirements of the Maastricht Treaty to protect the euro.

The debt ratio in France, Spain and Portugal is about twice as high as the European reference value of 60 percent of gross domestic product.

In Italy it is two and a half times.

Greece even comes in three and a half times as much.

In fact, all states that exceed the reference value must gradually reduce the excessive obligations. According to the European rules, they have twenty years to do this. However, these were not enforced, so that even before the Corona crisis, the national debt ratios in the five countries examined either remained at too high a level - or, as in France, even continued to creep up. In the pandemic, all five got another big boost.

Although Greece has the worst starting position in terms of numbers, IW economist Björn Kauder says the country has good prospects for normal times. In the event that the values ​​predicted by the International Monetary Fund for 2026 are extrapolated to 2041 (scenario I), its debt ratio at the end of the time horizon will be 139 percent. Even in the event that the development of the four pre-Corona years (2016 to 2019) also applies to the years 2027 to 2041 (scenario II), the contaminated site will drop: to 165 percent in twenty years. Only in the crisis scenario, which is based on the values ​​from 2012 to 2019, will the debt ratio increase further - up to 298 percent.

The first two scenarios also look good for Portugal.

"Both EU member states have remarkable primary balances," writes Kauder.

In that case, a look is taken at how a household closes without interest expenditure.

This is considered an important parameter.

The reason: if the primary balance is zero, the debt ratio remains constant - provided that the interest rate corresponds to the growth of the economy.

In Portugal, the economist sees good economic development.

Greece benefits from relatively low interest rates.

Proposal for a comprehensive reform of the EU Stability Pact

For France, Italy and Spain, Kauder expects the debt ratios to rise further. In the best case scenario, it will rise in the neighboring country from currently 116 percent to 134 percent in twenty years. In the worst case, Paris even ends up at 156 percent. While France and Spain are not least due to the weak primary balances, Italy is suffering from weak economic development, according to the study. Her summary: The sustainability of the national budget remains a political and economic challenge - especially with a view to the demographic adjustment burdens.

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni plans to present a proposal for a comprehensive reform of the EU Stability Pact around the middle of next year.

As he recently announced in an interview with the FAZ, he wants to regulate the debt reduction for each country individually.

“We cannot lump all countries together.

The differences in the debt ratios are too high for that, ”said the Italian.

He could also imagine giving the countries more budgetary leeway than before.

At the same time, he warned that the Commission must have more effective instruments to enforce the rules.