It is 'Devil's Jam' made in Italy, and there are people who have never tried it, but no one has ever tried it.



But these days, there is a sudden warning to bring this jam out, but from the new year, why is it talking about other people's jam?



Because here you can find the risks that will affect the global economy this year.



The raw material for this jam is hazelnuts.



Turkey produces 70% of the world's hazelnuts.



Turkey's foreign exchange crisis led to the 'Devil's Jam Crisis'.



how did it happen



Inflation is skyrocketing amidst global inflation, and only Turkey has cut interest rates in a row to save the economy.



Then, the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, fell and was cut in half.



Oil prices and transportation costs have already risen due to inflation, but as the prices of imported seeds and fertilizers soared, 4 million Turkish farms suffered a fatal blow.



As the harvest decreased, exports were also disrupted, and an Italian company, which had been importing hazelnuts from Turkey, caught fire on their feet and rushed to find other supply chains.



This unpredictable butterfly effect is expected to become more frequent this year.



vehicle semiconductor shortage.



At first, I thought that there would be only some production disruptions due to a drought in Taiwan and a fire at a Japanese plant, but this has not been resolved so far after more than a year.



Lack of truck drivers in the United States caused containers to pile up in the Port of Los Angeles one by one, which created a global supply chain bottleneck.



Have we experienced it recently?



The urea crisis, you will remember.



The beginning was the US-China conflict, but China cut off coal imports from Australia, which took the US side, and then, as the raw material coal became scarce, China reduced the production of urea water.



Korea, which relied on China for the number of urea, was in full swing.



Similar things are still going on today.



Nickel or lithium, these are essential materials for batteries, and as China, which is holding them, raises prices recently, K-battery makers are in a state of emergency.



In the meantime, minimizing inventory has been a virtue of management, but companies that have experienced such supply chain turmoil have changed their minds.



Apple's Tim Cook was one of the executives who hated inventory.



Inventory is Evil, Let's make an iPhone fresh like milk. We even put up a motto like this, but this time there was a shortage of parts, so production was severely disrupted.



When the global supply chain runs smoothly due to globalization, the method of procuring and producing immediately when needed rather than piling up inventory worked.



But now, depending on just one place can be paralyzed, so even if it costs a little more, it has changed to a more stable supply, that is, to secure more parts that are considered evil.



If the supply chain breaks down and people compete for materials, the cost will naturally go up.



Inflationary pressures are likely to increase.



It is good to raise the price when the cost soars, but it is not possible for all companies.



Therefore, the keyword that has become particularly important this year is 'price competitiveness'.



It refers to competitiveness that can pass on the cost increase to consumer prices, so that even if the price rises, there is no effect on sales.



These are products with unique technology, superior brand value, or high market dominance.



Since Korea's export share of intermediate goods manufacturing is large, margins decrease when raw material prices rise, so it has an industrial structure with low price competitiveness.



This year, various variables are added, and uncertainties surrounding the economy are expected to increase significantly, so we need to respond more promptly than ever before.



(Video coverage: Yang Hyeon-cheol, video editing: Park Ki-duk, CG: Kang Kyung-rim·Kang Yu-ra)