(Economic Observation) RCEP officially takes effect
China News Service, Beijing, January 1st (Reporter Wang Enbo) On January 1, 2022, the much-anticipated Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) came into effect.
With the official landing of this free trade zone with the world's most populous, largest economic and trade scale, and the most potential for development, the global economic and trade landscape will be rewritten.
RCEP is a super large free trade zone with leading indicators. The total population of the member states is 2.27 billion, the GDP is 26 trillion U.S. dollars, and the total export value is 5.5 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for about 30% of the global total.
All parties generally believe that RCEP contains huge economic volume and development space, which will inject strong impetus into regional and global economic growth.
The simulation results of the "RCEP Impact Assessment Report on Regional Economy" issued by the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce show that by 2035, RCEP will drive the overall real GDP, export and import increments of the region to increase by 0.86% compared to the baseline situation. , 18.30% and 9.63%, the regional economic welfare has increased by 162.8 billion US dollars.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States estimates that by 2030, RCEP is expected to drive a net increase of US$519 billion in exports of member countries and a net increase of US$186 billion in national income.
It is worth mentioning that most of the member states of RCEP are also members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization.
In the context of the hindrance of economic globalization and the reshaping of global value chains, the effective implementation of RCEP will further enhance the weight of the Asia-Pacific economy on a global scale.
Wan Zhe, a researcher at Beijing Normal University’s One Belt One Road College, pointed out that RCEP accounts for almost one-third of the world in terms of economic aggregates and trade volume.
Its entry into force marks a significant progress in the integration of the Asia-Pacific region, which has the largest population, the most diverse membership structure, and the greatest potential for development.
From the perspective of the specific content of the agreement, RCEP members have generally achieved a relatively high level of liberalization.
After the agreement comes into effect, more than 90% of the goods trade in the region will eventually achieve zero tariffs. The tariffs on major products will be reduced to zero immediately and within 10 years, which is expected to benefit enterprises and consumers of various countries in a relatively short period of time.
China and other RCEP members also generally mutually promised to reduce some tariff rates for a small number of tax items.
Ni Yueju, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that with the gradual reduction of tariff rates in the region, the gradual reduction of non-tariff barriers, and the gradual increase in trade facilitation, the proportion of intraregional trade will further increase. , Thereby enhancing the stickiness of intra-regional trade, and the region’s position in global trade will continue to rise.
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, structural changes have taken place in the international market, global industrial chain and supply chain.
By improving the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation within the region, RCEP will also bring about positive effects such as supply chain restructuring and efficiency enhancement.
Another highlight of RCEP in the field of goods trade is the cumulative rules of origin.
The accumulation of origin is widely regarded as the most eye-catching achievement in the field of RCEP goods trade.
According to the rules of accumulation of origin, when determining the qualification of product origin, the original materials of each RCEP member country can be accumulated to meet the 40% value-added origin standard of the final export product, so that it is easier to enjoy preferential tariffs.
Yu Benlin, director of the Department of International Economic and Trade Relations of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that the rules of accumulation of origin have greatly reduced the threshold for commodity benefits, which will encourage manufacturers to use more regionally originated materials, and facilitate member states to enjoy the agreement’s zero-tariff treatment. A closer and more resilient industrial chain supply chain will be formed in the region.
According to Ni Yueju’s analysis, further liberalization and facilitation of investment and the implementation of cumulative rules of origin will make member states more inclined to lay out the industrial chain and supply chain in the RCEP region, thereby playing a role of “stabilizing the chain” and “strengthening the chain”.
With the increase in openness and the continuous improvement of the business environment, the attractiveness of the region to foreign investment will continue to increase, and labor productivity will increase accordingly, thereby promoting the rapid economic growth of member countries and the continuous expansion of the internal market.
In general, Ni Yueju believes that more favorable tariff rates and a more convenient and free trade and investment environment will further enhance intra-regional trade and investment stickiness and regional value chain resilience, promote economic growth in member countries, and enhance the Asia-Pacific region’s global presence. The influence in the economic and trade structure has made it an important growth pole and weather vane for the world economy.
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