(Year-end Economic Observation) Piaohong has come to an end. Can A-shares continue the bull market in 2022?

　　China News Service, Beijing, December 31 (Reporter Xia Bin) The annual total turnover reached a record high, the number of IPO listed companies in the whole year reached a record high, the total IPO fundraising for the whole year reached a record high, and the amount of A-shares from northbound funds increased to a record high. With the birth of four records, A shares will officially end in 2021.

　　As of the close of December 31, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.57% to 3,639.78 points, with a turnover of 433.5 billion yuan (RMB, the same below); the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14,857.35 points, with a turnover of 626.7 billion yuan; ChiNext The index closed flat at 3322.67 points, with a turnover of 239.3 billion yuan.

　　Judging from the whole year of this year, the three major A-share stock indexes have come to an end: The Shanghai Stock Index rose 4.8% for the whole year, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.67%, and the ChiNext Index surged 12.02%.

It is worth noting that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index regained three consecutive years after a lapse of 28 years.

　　During the year, hot industry sectors broke out. YTD Lithium extraction sector rose by 88%, carbon neutral sector rose by nearly 60%, and Metaspace concept rose 41%. The focus stock of the market Ningde Times surged 68% throughout the year, while Kweichow Moutai The annual increase exceeds 3%.

　　Xun Yugen, chief economist of Haitong Securities, pointed out that the A-share bull market that started in 2019 has lasted for nearly three years. From the perspective of the three-year rolling annualized yield, the A-share yield has been significantly higher than the historical average.

In the long run, there is a law of mean reversion in everything, and the stock market is also running. Next year, the index may be relatively flat, and investors should lower their expectations of annual yields.

　　Can the A-share bull market continue next year?

"China's huge consumer market has been improving for a long time, coupled with domestic policies that focus on stimulating growth, making us feel optimistic about the prospects of A-shares in 2022 and beyond." said Yao Hongyao, director of Aberdeen Investment and head of China's equity investment department.

　　Goldman Sachs Group said that the general stock market performance is supported by two legs, one is profit growth and the other is valuation expansion.

"We believe that a moderately loose policy will ease China's domestic macro pressures, and a relatively stable policy may be expected to support China's stock market."

　　Wang Ying, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley China, said bluntly that our main investment recommendation in 2021 is to overweight A shares, and this strategy will still work in 2022.

China's current stock market has many options at the stock level in terms of structural opportunities and thematic opportunities.

　　In terms of specific sectors, Morgan Stanley judged that the future A-share beneficiary sector will be subject to topics related to green economy, network security, technology localization, and high-end manufacturing.

　　Li Xunlei also believes that the overall A-share volatility may increase next year, but it does not mean that there is a lack of investment opportunities in the capital market next year. There is still room for monetary policy and overall liquidity will remain at a relatively sufficient level, which will benefit the stock market. A-shares as a whole will continue to fluctuate upwards, and structural opportunities will emerge in endlessly.

　　The full implementation of the registration system for stock issuance is an important task for the capital market reform set by the central government for 2022.

In an environment where the word "stable" is at the forefront, tackling tough reforms has also become one of the key words of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's work next year.

　　How should the persistence in seeking "progress" be reflected?

The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, mentioned that “advance” should be reflected in the reform, the stock issuance registration system will be fully implemented, the quality of listed companies will be improved, the multi-level capital market system will be improved, the market ecology will be further optimized, and the market-oriented resource allocation system will be promoted. Mechanism to further stimulate market innovation vitality.

　　At the regular meeting of chief economists in the securities and fund industry in the fourth quarter of 2021 held by the Securities Industry Association of China, experts at the meeting believed that the registration system is an ecosystem where issuers, investors, intermediaries, and regulatory agencies are responsible for the division of labor and powers. On the basis of the current effective system, it is necessary to further consolidate the foundation of the rule of law, improve the marketization level of IPO pricing, strict delisting system, strengthen investor protection, clarify the responsibilities of investment banks and other intermediaries, continuously improve the professional capabilities of intermediaries, and accelerate the formation of survival of the fittest Market ecology.

　　Tian Lihui, Dean of the Financial Development Research Institute of Nankai University, told a reporter from China News Agency that the comprehensive registration reform of the capital market is a systematic project that requires overall planning and step-by-step implementation.

Only in this way can the market pricing mechanism be more effective and the market's hub function can be more smooth.

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