(Year-end Economic Observation) How will China's foreign trade go after exceeding expectations?

　　China News Service, Beijing, December 30 (Chen Jing) In 2021, when the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still raging around the world, China's foreign trade has achieved unexpected growth.

Can this momentum continue in 2022?

　　According to data from the Ministry of Commerce of China, from January to November this year, China’s total import and export volume was US$5.47 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%. There were 553,000 active foreign trade entities. In the first three quarters, the net export of goods and services contributed 19.5% to GDP. , Driving GDP growth by about 2 percentage points.

　　Ni Yueju, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that in the first November of this year, China's foreign trade imports and exports both achieved a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%, which was a comprehensive and balanced effort.

At the same time, the role of foreign trade in promoting China's economic recovery and growth has been highlighted, and its contribution to economic growth has exceeded the decline in investment and consumption affected by the epidemic.

　　Ni Yueju specifically mentioned that the "home economy" and epidemic prevention materials have played an important role in the rapid growth of China's exports. The rapid development of new trade formats and models such as cross-border e-commerce has also become a new driving force for trade growth.

　　Although China’s foreign trade has grown rapidly this year and has made important contributions to stabilizing economic growth, China’s Vice Minister of Commerce Ren Hongbin bluntly stated at the State Council’s policy briefing on the 30th that the three pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and expected weakening are in the field of foreign trade. It is also very prominent.

　　Ren Hongbin said that under the impact of the epidemic, the world economy is recovering fragilely, external demand growth is weak, and the "four liters" issues such as lack of cores, lack of cabinets, lack of labor and freight, raw material costs, energy resource prices, and the rise in the RMB exchange rate have directly increased the burden on enterprises.

In addition, the phased factors supporting the high growth of foreign trade this year, such as the return of orders and price increases, are difficult to sustain. Superimposed on the impact of the ultra-high base number in 2021, it is unprecedented to do a good job in stabilizing foreign trade next year.

　　In this context, Ni Yueju predicts that China's foreign trade will continue to grow in 2022, but the growth rate will slow down significantly under the high base in 2021.

On the one hand, after the test of the epidemic, the superiority of China’s system, the integrity of the industrial chain, and the quality of products have been increasingly recognized. Cross-border e-commerce will continue to boost China’s foreign trade growth, and the effective implementation of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) Will promote the growth of intra-regional trade.

　　On the other hand, foreign trade is also facing some uncertain factors.

Ni Yueju believes that if foreign markets and production recover further, orders transferred to China due to the epidemic may "return", and trade in epidemic-related products will decrease. In addition, the increase in raw material prices and freight rates will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. Political factors will also speed up some countries' freedom from dependence on China's foreign trade in the post-epidemic period.

　　However, experts also pointed out that, as an important variable that continues to exceed expectations in China's macro economy this year, we should not be pessimistic about next year's export situation.

　　Cheng Qiang, chief macro analyst at CITIC Securities, said that the global epidemic is still in the process of recurring. The emergence of new epidemics will not only affect the recovery of overseas supply, but will also increase the export of Chinese medical supplies. Overseas residents' asset and liability status is relatively good and strong. Demand growth is continuous.

In addition, the restoration of overseas supply chains will face more complex contradictions, such as the decline in employment willingness caused by the expansion of wealth effect, and the aging of the population.

"So on the whole, we can be more optimistic about exports."

　　In response to the complex situation in 2022, Ni Yueju believes that China’s foreign trade needs to strengthen cross-cycle adjustments to achieve stability while seeking progress.

She suggested that more efforts should be made to implement the policy of stabilizing foreign trade, and in particular, efforts should be made to support small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises.

At the same time, it is necessary to continue to promote the development of high-quality foreign trade, enhance corporate innovation capabilities, and further expand the scope of the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone to better play its exemplary and leading role.

　　Ni Yueju also mentioned that it is necessary to encourage foreign trade companies, cross-border e-commerce and logistics companies to participate in the construction of overseas warehouses to expand the international market space with speed and efficiency; increase financial support for foreign trade, especially increase export credit insurance for foreign trade. Support for new business models.

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