China's economy will be full of resilience in 2021, and the reform and opening up will advance in depth
2021 is a landmark year.
This year, China's economy has climbed through hurdles and moved forward steadily.
Both economic development and epidemic prevention and control, national strategic scientific and technological forces have accelerated, the resilience of the industrial chain has been improved, people's livelihood protection has been strong and effective, and the construction of ecological civilization has continued to advance.
This year, we completed the first centenary goal and embarked on a new journey towards the second centenary goal, calmly dealt with the changes in the century and the epidemic in the century, took new steps to build a new development pattern, and achieved new results in high-quality development. A good start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" was achieved.
The Central Economic Work Conference to be held at the end of 2021 made a judgment on the current economic situation that it is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening.
The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to face up to the difficulties and strengthen confidence.
The fundamentals of my country's economic resilience and long-term improvement will not change.
No matter how the international situation changes, we must unswervingly do our own things, continue to strengthen our economic foundation, enhance our capacity for scientific and technological innovation, adhere to multilateralism, take the initiative to set high standards for international economic and trade rules, and promote deep-level reforms and advances with high-level openness. High-quality development.
Macro indicators are generally in a reasonable range
In 2021, the cross-cyclical adjustments of macroeconomic policies will be steadily promoted, and efforts will be strengthened to ensure supply and stabilize prices and help enterprises to relieve difficulties, and the national economy will continue to recover.
The main macro indicators are generally within a reasonable range, showing the characteristics of faster economic growth, lower prices, better employment, and a balanced international payment.
In terms of economic growth, in the first three quarters, my country's GDP grew by 9.8% year-on-year, which was higher than the expected target of more than 6%.
In terms of prices, the overall level of consumer prices was stable. From January to November, the CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected target of about 3%.
It is worth mentioning that my country’s overall price stability in 2021 is inseparable from stable agriculture and increased grain production.
Summer grains, early rice, and autumn grains have all achieved increased production. The total annual grain output was 1365.7 billion catties, an increase of 26.7 billion catties over the previous year, setting a new record high and laying a solid foundation for the sustained and healthy development of my country's economy.
From the perspective of domestic demand, consumption and investment have recovered steadily, and household consumption has steadily upgraded.
In the first 11 months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.7% year-on-year, and the consumption of basic living and upgraded products increased well.
Investment growth is generally stable, and the construction of new infrastructure has been accelerated, and the world's largest 5G independent networking network has been built.
Manufacturing investment increased by 13.7% year-on-year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 16.6%, and investment in the social sector maintained double-digit growth.
The volume and quality of foreign trade increased, and the structure continued to be optimized.
In the first 11 months, my country’s total import and export volume was 35.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, exceeding the scale of last year and the highest in the same period in history; exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59%, and private enterprises accounted for 48.5%.
From January to October, my country's total imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” increased by 23% year-on-year.
There were 12,605 China-Europe freight trains, which exceeded the total of last year, and the freight volume increased by 33% year-on-year.
From the perspective of international payments, in the first 11 months, my country’s import and export trade surplus was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.
At the end of November, the balance of my country's foreign exchange reserves was 3222.4 billion U.S. dollars, stabilizing at more than 3.2 trillion U.S. dollars for seven consecutive months.
Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, wrote an analysis that the reason why my country's economy can keep operating within a reasonable range and achieve world-leading development results is inseparable from the efforts of macroeconomic policies and the efforts of enterprises.
Proactive fiscal policy has improved quality and efficiency. From January to November, the national general public budget revenue increased by 12.8% year-on-year, and general public budget expenditure increased by 2.9%. In 2020, the burden of market players was reduced by more than 2.6 trillion yuan. Reduce fees.
The prudent monetary policy was flexible and precise. As of the end of November, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions increased by 11.7% year-on-year, and the balance of broad money M2 increased by 8.5%, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and promoting the steady and slow decline of the overall financing costs of market entities.
Minister of Finance Liu Kun said in a video conference on national fiscal work a few days ago that my country will optimize and implement tax and fee reduction policies in 2021, and it is expected that new tax and fee reductions will reach 1 trillion yuan throughout the year.
"Implementing greater efforts to reduce taxes and fees, and enhance the vitality of market entities" also ranks first among the six key areas of fiscal work next year.
Liu Kun introduced that in 2022, we must strictly implement the various tax and fee reduction policies issued by the state to ensure that the dividends of the tax and fee reduction policies are implemented.
Strengthen relief assistance for small, medium and micro enterprises, implement the award and subsidy policy for inclusive financial development demonstration zones, continue to implement financing guarantees for small and micro enterprises, and reduce fees and subsidies, and newly support a group of national-level specialized and new "little giant" enterprises. Encourage local governments to arrange relief funds for SMEs.
Improved both the quality and efficiency of economic development
In 2021, the quality and efficiency of economic development will also improve.
Ensuring and improving people's livelihood is not only the goal of economic development, but also the starting point of economic development.
Since 2021, we have adhered to the people-centered development ideology, and the people's livelihood guarantee is powerful and effective.
In the first three quarters, the national residents’ disposable income increased by 9.7% year-on-year in real terms, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.1%, basically in line with economic growth.
In the first three quarters, the national per capita wage income increased by 10.6% year-on-year in nominal terms; the average per capita net income from transfers increased by 8.4% in nominal terms over the same period in 2019.
The coordinated progress of economic development and the construction of ecological civilization is the requirement of the new development concept, and it also contains new economic growth points.
Since 2021, ecological environmental protection has continued to be strengthened, energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas have achieved results, and the energy consumption structure has been adjusted and optimized.
In the first three quarters, energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 2.3% year-on-year, and the proportion of clean energy consumption in total energy consumption increased by 0.6%.
The carbon trading market has become increasingly active, and the results of pollution prevention and control have been continuously consolidated.
From January to October, the average PM2.5 concentration of 339 prefecture-level and above cities across the country fell by 6.7% year-on-year.
In March 2021, the ninth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee emphasized that achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a broad and profound economic and social systemic change, and carbon peaking and carbon neutrality should be integrated into the overall construction of ecological civilization. Layout, take out the strength to grasp the iron, and achieve the goal of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060 on schedule.
At the National Two Conferences in 2021, the "dual carbon" target was included in the government work report for the first time.
On October 24, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Fully, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" and the "Carbon Peaking Action Plan by 2030".
As the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goals recommendations or drafts for comments have been published in various regions, many places have made it clear that they must do a good job in carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, and formulate carbon emissions by 2030 Dafeng action plan.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy sources should be based on the safe and reliable replacement of new energy sources. The basic national conditions of coal should be established, the clean and efficient use of coal should be promoted, and the capacity of new energy consumption should be increased. Energy optimization portfolio.
Improving clean energy supply capacity and accelerating the formation of a clean, low-carbon, safe, efficient, and diversified and complementary modern energy supply system will not only enhance the confidence in energy supply, but also the only way to help achieve the "dual carbon" goal.
Since the beginning of this year, clean energy has accelerated its deployment.
On December 24, as the last wind turbine impeller slowly turned, National Energy Group Longyuan Power Jiangsu Dafeng Phase II 606,300 MW offshore wind power project achieved full-capacity grid-connected power generation.
The project is expected to provide about 1.8 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy each year, save 590,000 tons of standard coal, reduce 1.23 million tons of carbon dioxide, save 5.2 million tons of fresh water, and have significant economic and environmental benefits.
Not long ago, SPIC "Nuanhe No. 1" was put into operation in Haiyang, Shandong. Nuclear heating covers the entire city of Haiyang, benefiting 200,000 residents. Haiyang has also become the country's first "zero-carbon" heating city.
According to data released by the National Energy Administration, as of the end of October this year, my country's cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy power generation exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, reaching 1.02 billion kilowatts, accounting for 43.5% of the country's total installed power generation capacity.
Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower, wind power, solar power and biomass power generation reached 385 million kilowatts, 299 million kilowatts, 282 million kilowatts and 35.34 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world.
With the deepening of the transition to clean energy and low carbon, my country will gradually get rid of its dependence on fossil energy such as coal and petroleum.
According to calculations by research institutes, by 2060, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in my country will increase from the current 16% to over 80%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation will increase from the current 34% to over 90%. A safe and sustainable energy supply system based on fossil energy.
Strategic scientific and technological power accelerates growth
The Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Major Achievements and Historical Experiences of the Party’s Centennial Struggle, which was reviewed and approved by the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, emphasizes that it insists on implementing the innovation-driven development strategy and takes scientific and technological self-reliance as a strategic support for national development.
Innovation is an important force driving development.
Since 2021, the country's strategic scientific and technological strength has accelerated, the resilience of the industrial chain has been improved, and the strength of science and technology, industry and producer services has continued to increase.
The Tianwen 1 probe successfully landed on Mars, the Shenzhou 13 manned spacecraft was successfully launched, the first batch of national laboratories were listed, the mass entrepreneurship and innovation activities were carried out in depth, the industrial foundation reengineering project and the leading enterprise chain protection and chain stabilization project began to be implemented.
In September 2021, the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) released the 2021 Global Innovation Index (GII).
China's ranking has risen from 14th in 2020 to 12th in the world, and remains the only middle-income economy in the top 30.
Since 2013, China's global innovation index ranking has been rising steadily for 9 consecutive years.
Chen Qiang, a distinguished professor of the School of Economics and Management of Tongji University and executive director of the Shanghai Industrial Innovation Ecosystem Research Center, told CBN that my country has made great progress in scientific and technological innovation and the national scientific and technological strength has continued to increase.
In recent years, the central government's investment in basic research has been continuously increased. A comparison with developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan shows that my country's total investment in basic research has increased significantly.
The strengthening of basic research is an important support for high-level technological self-reliance.
Tech companies that continue to innovate are growing against the trend under the pressure of the epidemic.
According to the "2021 China Top 50 High-Tech High-Growth and Tomorrow Star Project Research Report" released by Deloitte, the average cumulative revenue growth rate of China’s top 50 high-tech high-growth companies in the past three years was 2797%, which is an increase from last year. High-tech companies show strong development resilience.
On the morning of November 15th, the Beijing Stock Exchange was inaugurated in the eyes and expectations, opening up a new world of direct financing for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises.
Half of the 81 first batch of listed companies are "specialized, special-new" SMEs, and 16 of them are specialized, special-new "little giant" enterprises.
A person in charge of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises said that innovation requires a large amount of capital investment, and financing ability to a large extent determines the ability of an enterprise to innovate.
Small and medium-sized enterprises have poor financing capabilities due to lack of adequate mortgages and guarantees.
Listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange is equivalent to adding an "accelerator" to innovation, and the business face of the company has been completely new.
Talent is the first resource for innovation. The Beijing Stock Exchange has more flexibility in the supervision of equity incentives, allowing listed companies to reasonably set an option exercise price lower than the stock market price under the premise of fully disclosing and fulfilling the corresponding procedures, so as to enhance the effectiveness of incentives Many companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange have used greater equity incentives to attract talents.
This year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology strives to build a high-quality enterprise gradient cultivation system, and strengthens the cultivation support and demonstration of specialization and special new "little giants". At present, 4,762 national-level specialization and special new "little giants" enterprises have been cultivated, driving the provincial level There are more than 40,000 "new" small and medium-sized enterprises, and 117,000 enterprises have entered the database.
Reform and opening up in depth
The effective transmission of macroeconomic policies to micro-market entities requires deepening reforms.
As of November 23, 2021, my country’s market entities have reached 150 million, including 46 million enterprises and 100 million individual industrial and commercial households, which has strongly supported economic growth, labor employment, and residents’ income.
Since 2021, the reform has been advancing in depth.
The reform of “decentralization, management and service” continued to deepen, the reform of the market-oriented allocation of factors continued to deepen, the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises was steadily advanced, the range of fluctuations in market transaction electricity prices was expanded, and the results continued to show.
"Anti-monopoly" is undoubtedly a hot word in the field of Chinese market supervision in 2021.
From the heavy release of the anti-monopoly guidelines in the field of platform economy at the beginning of the year, to the proposal of the draft amendment to the anti-monopoly law, to the establishment of the State Anti-monopoly Bureau not long ago, China's anti-monopoly system is moving towards a more sound development direction.
Han Wei, an associate professor at the School of Law of the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with China Business News that the establishment of the National Anti-Monopoly Bureau has enabled my country's anti-monopoly law enforcement agencies to take an important step towards a high-level, authoritative and independent direction, which is conducive to competition. The fundamental status of the policy has been better implemented to create a fair, transparent, and predictable and good competition environment for various market players, which is also in line with the trend of international anti-monopoly law enforcement.
On November 25, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Launching Pilot Business Environment Innovation Work", and deployed 6 cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen to carry out pilot business environment innovation, focusing on the concerns of market players, and accelerating development Market-oriented, rule-of-law, and internationalized first-class business environment will make greater efforts to facilitate the convenience of enterprises and the people.
The market-oriented reform of China's power system has also taken a crucial step in 2021, and significant progress has been made in the development of on-grid tariffs on the power side and sales prices on the user side.
In October, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Further Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of Coal-fired Power Generation Feed-in Tariffs", clarifying the orderly liberalization of all coal-fired power generation feed-in tariffs and expanding the trading price range of coal-fired power generation to fluctuating upwards and downwards in principle. No more than 20%, and market transaction electricity prices for high-energy-consuming enterprises are not subject to the 20% increase.
All industrial and commercial users have entered the electricity market, and the price of electricity sold in the industrial and commercial catalogue has been cancelled.
Wan Jinsong, director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the core of this reform is to truly establish a market-based electricity price mechanism that "can go down but up".
From the current point of view, the reform is conducive to further straightening out the relationship between "coal power" and ensuring the safe and stable supply of power; in the long run, it will accelerate the development of medium and long-term power transactions, the spot market and the auxiliary service market, and promote the high-quality development of the power industry. Supporting the construction of a new power system, serving the green and low-carbon transition of energy, and will play an important role in accelerating the reform of power generation and consumption plans and the reform of the power sales side system.
In the past month, more than 10 provinces, including Beijing, Guangdong, Shandong, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Zhejiang, have deployed power market-oriented transactions.
The linkage of coal prices and electricity prices will gradually open up the space for my country's electricity prices to rise, which will benefit coal power companies and will also force the transformation and upgrading of high energy-consuming industries.
2021 is the year for the three-year action for the reform of state-owned enterprises, and 70% of the scheduled tasks of the three-year action target for the reform of state-owned enterprises have been successfully completed.
As of the end of this year, central SOEs and 98.2% of their subsidiaries have completed their board of directors, more than 70% of group companies have established a board authorization system, and 89.9% of eligible second- and third-tier subsidiaries have achieved a majority of external directors.
The strategic reorganization and professional integration of central enterprises continue to advance. In 2021, China Star, China Electric Equipment, China Logistics Group, and China Rare Earth Group will be established, Sinochem Group and China National Chemical Corporation will reorganize, China Electric Technology will reorganize China Putian, and Anshan Iron and Steel will reorganize Benxi Iron and Steel, the national pipeline network asset reorganization has been successfully completed, and the logistics big data platform and the offshore equipment innovation platform have been accelerated.
Peng Huagang, Secretary-General of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, recently stated that the reform of state-owned enterprises is no longer a partial reform, but a comprehensive reform.
The reform measures are not independent of each other, but are interrelated and linked.
It is the 1+N policy system and the top-level design and construction drawings. It took three years to further research many reform measures in the 1+N implementation process.
Not only is the internal reforms intensified, the door to the outside world is also opening wider and wider. China has always taken concrete actions to deepen its high-level opening-up.
As of the end of November, China-Europe freight trains had operated more than 1,000 trains in a single month for 19 consecutive months, with a total of 47,414 trains and 4.297 million TEUs of cargo.
When global shipping is blocked this year, China-Europe Express will help "Made in China" go out, bring in world commodities, help my country's foreign trade growth, maintain the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain, and help my country accelerate the construction of a domestic cycle as the main body , A new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles.
The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce recently issued the 2021 version of the "Special Management Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List)" and "Special Management Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) in Pilot Free Trade Zones", which is a continuous negative list for foreign investment access. Reduction in the fifth year.
Compared with the 2020 version, the 2021 version of the negative list for foreign investment access has further shortened its length, improved the management system, and improved its accuracy.
The negative lists of the national and pilot free trade zones were further reduced to 31 and 27, with reduction ratios of 6.1% and 10% respectively.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told China Business News that the negative list of foreign investment access has been shortened every year, which shows that China is continuing to open up, "opening up to foreign-funded enterprises in response to foreign businessmen’s market access and other aspects. To improve the business environment. These are all necessary for building a high-standard market system and forming a strong domestic market.
As the world's largest free trade agreement, RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) will come into effect on January 1, 2022.
After the RCEP is fully implemented, it will drive nearly one-third of the world's economic volume to form a unified super-large-scale market. The space for development is extremely broad, and it will inject strong impetus into regional and global economic growth.
Gao Feng, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said that all preparations are in place, and the Ministry of Commerce will promptly issue the "Guiding Opinions on High-Quality Implementation of RCEP" with all relevant departments involved in the agreement to help localities and enterprises use RCEP rules more fully. , Seize the opportunity of market opening, vigorously promote the stable growth of intra-regional trade and investment, promote the deep integration of the industrial chain and supply chain among members, and promote the realization of higher-quality and deeper regional economic integration in East Asia.
(Author: Zhu Yanran)