7 experts look forward to December manufacturing PMI: most believe that they will continue to "stand on" the line of prosperity and decline

　　Our reporter Chang Xiaoyu

　　On December 31, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China's Manufacturing Industry for December.

Most experts interviewed by reporters from the Securities Daily predict that PMI will continue to "stand" on the line of prosperity and decline in December, which is the same as in November.

　　Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that PMI, as a leading economic indicator, rose 0.9 percentage points in November from October, and returned to above the line of prosperity after two months.

The return of the manufacturing PMI to the expansion range indicates that my country's manufacturing industry continues to improve, the activity of manufacturing enterprises has increased, the market prosperity continues to rise, and the confidence in the future development of the manufacturing industry has been effectively improved.

As the main body and foundation of the national economy, the manufacturing industry is the key to achieving high-quality and sustainable economic development. The return of PMI to above the line of prosperity and decline will play an important role in driving the upstream and downstream industrial chains and the linkage development of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, thereby promoting the economy. The overall effect is improved.

　　"The manufacturing PMI in December is expected to continue to remain above 50%, which is the same as in November." Zhang Liqun believes that there are three reasons. First, the economy in December entered a critical period for the end of the year, and the economic growth in various regions was the driving force for steady economic growth and maintaining growth. The continuous release will support economic growth; second, the epidemic situation in various regions is generally stable, and will not have a significant negative impact on economic changes; third, the central economic work conference will increase macro-control efforts to signal more clearly, and the follow-up momentum for stable economic growth will be Continue to release and accelerate the policy measures to accelerate the restructuring of the manufacturing industry will continue to exert force, and the resilience, sustainability, and growth of China's economy will be more fully demonstrated in the manufacturing industry.

　　The effects of policies such as ensuring energy supply and stabilizing market prices will also be reflected in the index.

Zhang Wenlang, chief macro analyst at CICC, told the Securities Daily reporter that since July, PMI has continued to decline due to multiple factors (epidemic, severe weather, etc.). It even fell into a contraction range from September to October. Under the effects of price stabilization and other policies, the PMI production sub-item rose to 52.0% in November, a sharp increase of 3.6 percentage points month-on-month, which contributed a lot to the overall PMI increase of 0.9 percentage points, pushing the overall PMI back to 50.1% and returning to glory. Above the dry line, the overall manufacturing industry is showing a stabilizing trend.

　　Looking forward to the manufacturing PMI data for December, Zhang Wenlang believes that “the role of policies such as maintaining supply and stabilizing prices will continue to play, and the supply shock pressure will continue to ease, but the demand is still unspeakably strong, and it is expected to be basically the same as in November.”

　　Zhang Yiping, a macroeconomic analyst at China Merchants Securities, also holds the same view. "From the data of the past 10 years, most of the manufacturing PMI in December was flat or slightly decreased from the previous month, which was affected to a certain extent by seasonal factors. The manufacturing PMI in November this year The month-on-month rebound is mainly due to the relaxation of energy supply and real estate financing constraints since October. The impact of policy adjustments on economic data since December is difficult to fully reflect in the current month's data. It is expected that the PMI in December will be roughly the same as that in November."

　　The chief FICC analyst of CITIC Securities clearly told the "Securities Daily" reporter that by the end of the year, although the epidemic broke out again, there have been positive changes in many aspects: downstream demand has improved, such as the automotive industry; some raw material prices have clearly fallen behind. The cost pressures of many mid- and downstream manufacturing companies have dropped and profit margins have opened up; the marginal pressure on cash flow of real estate companies has eased, and investment in construction and installation projects has begun to rebound.

Judging from the comprehensive high-frequency data and the marginal changes of some economic indicators, it is expected that the manufacturing PMI will continue to rise slightly in December.

　　Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of the Suning Institute of Financial Research, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the growth of external demand in December was still resilient, and there were still many export orders from enterprises. At the same time, price pressures in the middle and lower reaches were reduced under the transmission effect, and the capacity utilization rate was reduced. As a result, the overall prosperity of the manufacturing industry has been supported. The manufacturing PMI in December is expected to be the same as that in November, staying above the line of prosperity and decline.

　　There are also experts who hold different views on the PMI trend in December.

　　Wu Qiong, director of the Research Department of Honeycomb Fund, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that from the high-frequency data, some high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and chemical industries have low operating rates, and the demand side is affected by seasonal weakness and weak actual demand. , The manufacturing PMI is expected to fall below 50% again in December.

　　Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and chief macro researcher of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that PMI is expected to be 49.9% in December, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Overall, the manufacturing PMI has shown a volatile downward trend since the beginning of this year. After bottoming out in October, it rebounded slightly, which is broadly consistent with the growth rate of the manufacturing industry's added value.

In terms of sub-items, the production index may be lower than in November, and the new orders, new export orders, imports and other indexes are expected to improve slightly, or will be basically the same as in November.

　　Looking ahead to the beginning of next year, Luo Zhiheng suggested that we should focus on changes in the epidemic, corporate costs, and overseas demand.

Specifically, in the face of the Omi Keron variant, China continues to adopt "dynamic zeroing" epidemic prevention measures, and the impact on the overseas economy is weaker than expected. With the recovery of overseas production capacity, there may be a certain outflow of orders.

The international energy and bulk commodity market prices are at a high level, and the superposition of domestic electricity price market reforms may further increase the pressure on the production cost of enterprises, and the increase in accounts receivable will also increase the pressure on corporate financing costs.

In the first quarter of next year, exports to Europe and the United States may face a shift from peak season to off-season.

(Securities Daily)