The central government emphasizes the expansion of soybean and oilseed production. What are the reasons behind it?
Whenever the summer wheat is harvested, whether to grow soybeans or corn becomes a multiple choice question before Wang Han, a major grain grower in Anhui Province.
He said that in terms of yield per mu, soybeans are more than 700 catties worse than corn; in terms of income, the difference between the two is about 600 yuan; from the point of view of net income, the difference between the two is about 400 yuan.
“In the past, when the local government provided subsidies, they had planted soybeans for two years. If there were no subsidies, they would not consider planting soybeans. Because compared with corn, there is a huge gap in output and income between the two.”
However, for Zhao Xu, there is no such choice.
Zhao Xu is in charge of the Zhao Yujiu Soybean Planting Farmers Professional Cooperative (hereinafter referred to as "Zhao Yujiu Cooperative") in Hailun City. The cooperative was established in 2017 and planted more than 10,000 mu of soybeans in Haibei Town, Hailun City. The other party provides soybean varieties and planted them in accordance with the other party's standards. After the autumn harvest, the soybeans are harvested as per the order.
Coupled with the country’s soybean-related agricultural subsidies to farmers, a comprehensive comparison shows that the benefits of cooperatives planting soybeans are better than corn.
Large grain farmers in different regions have different rational choices, which are actually the result of the "land competition" between soybeans and corn.
In 2021, corn output increased by 23.8 billion jins year-on-year, an increase of 4.6%; correspondingly, soybean production decreased by 6.4 billion jins year-on-year, a decrease of 16.4%.
It is against this background that the Central Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 25th to 26th, and the meeting emphasized "vigorously expanding the production of soybeans and oilseeds."
On December 27, a meeting of the directors of the National Agriculture and Rural Affairs Department proposed that it is necessary to overcome difficulties and expand soybean oilseeds.
Regarding the expansion of soybean oilseed production as a major political task that must be completed next year, we will focus on the restoration of soybean area in the four northeastern provinces and regions, support the promotion of corn and soybean belt compound planting in the northwest, Huanghuaihai, Southwest, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and accelerate the promotion of new models and new models. Technology, gradually promote the compatible development of soybeans and corn, and at the same time pay attention to the production of oilseed rape, peanuts and other oilseeds.
The Economic Accounts Behind the "Land Competition"
As early as 2011, Wang Han returned to Guzhen County, Bengbu City, Anhui Province to establish Hongtongtong Agricultural Professional Cooperative and served as the person in charge.
After 10 years of development and growth, including more than 8,000 acres of land just transferred this year, the cooperative’s planting scale has reached 20,000 acres.
Among them, about 13,000 mu of land under the trusteeship of large local grain growers.
The cooperative is located in the Huanghuaihai area and has two crops a year, one crop of wheat and one crop of corn or soybeans.
Wang Han said that if you plant soybeans, the yield per mu is only 200 jin, 2-3 yuan per jin, which is 400-600 yuan; if you plant corn, the yield per mu reaches 900 jin, 1.2 yuan per jin, you can earn more than 1,000 yuan. ; Excluding the cost of 200 yuan for soybeans and 350 yuan for corn, there is a "large disparity" in revenue between the two, with a difference of 300 to 400 yuan.
This means that there must be subsidies for farmers to have the motivation to adjust the planting structure.
"There have been soybean rotations before, and the subsidy is 150 yuan per mu. Some are low. If it is appropriately increased to 200-250 yuan, and the income of corn and soybeans per mu can be reduced to 100-150 yuan, farmers may choose to plant. Soybeans." Wang Han said.
Five years ago, through an introduction by an intermediary, Zhao Xu realized that Beijing Kaida Hengye Agricultural Technology Development Co., Ltd. Pure soy products such as gold rolls are exported to more than ten countries and regions including Japan and South Korea all year round, and there is a large demand for non-GMO soybeans.
Therefore, Zhao Yujiu Cooperative started order cooperation with Kaida Hengye.
The soybean varieties planted by the cooperative are jointly developed by Kaida Hengye and the scientific research institute. By signing a directional order with the cooperative for planting, and collecting the soybean products at a protective price, "the farmers in the cooperative tend to plant soybeans, which provides for farmers in the cooperative. With stable revenue growth channels and unified management, Kaida Hengye can use it with confidence." Zhao Xu said.
Having soybean orders is the key to stabilizing the soybean planting area and ensuring farmers' income.
Zhao Xu carefully calculated the economic accounts behind this.
He said that in recent years, farmers who grow soybeans can earn tens of yuan per acre if they sell soybeans for good years. If it fails, they can also take care of the cost. The main income is state subsidies. Taken together, it is about 500 yuan per mu.
By comparison, the net income of planting corn is only 400 yuan, and it is often affected by natural disasters.
Zhou Honglian, general manager of Beijing Cougain Bean Food Co., Ltd., told China Business News that the protein content of soybeans produced in Hailun, Heilongjiang Province is 40% to 42%, and the oil content is about 20%, making it one of the most high-quality production areas in China.
Through the development of order agriculture, soybean planting area can be expanded and soybean purchase prices can be stabilized, thereby reducing procurement risks for soybean product processing enterprises. Small and medium-sized enterprises can better survive and develop, and large enterprises can also participate in more scientific research innovation and product development.
Extending time, there is obvious economic rationality behind the "land competition" between soybeans and corn.
In terms of yield, corn yield per mu is significantly higher than that of soybeans. The yield of corn per mu in Northeast China is concentrated at 900-1200 jin per mu, and the yield per mu of soybean is 240-340 jin per mu.
From the perspective of income, in 2014, soybeans cancelled the purchase policy for the market, and the price weakened.
In comparison, in 2015, the net profit of corn planting in Northeast China was 200-300 yuan per ton.
In 2016, corn abolished the purchase policy for the market, and the general loss of corn planting was 100-200 yuan per mu.
By 2020, the national corn price will soar, and the benefit of corn planting will soar to 500-600 yuan per mu, and the benefit of soybean planting will be 300 yuan per mu.
In 2021, due to the increase in planting costs, including land rent, fertilizer, and labor, the profit of corn planting will drop sharply, and the income may not be as good as that of soybeans.
Soybeans are due to nitrogen fixation by rhizobia, and the amount of chemical fertilizers is small, the cost increase is small, and the income is generally about 400 yuan per mu.
Adjust structure to expand soybean and oilseed production
In the total grain output in 2021, corn accounted for nearly 40%, and soybeans accounted for only 2.4%.
However, due to long-term insufficient demand for soybeans and high dependence on foreign sources, imports have become the norm, and net imports have a history of 26 years.
Soybean imports have also increased from 1 million tons in 1995 to 100 million tons in 2020, a 100-fold increase in 25 years.
At present, China's soybean imports account for 60% of the total global soybean trade.
Taking 2020 as an example, the dependence on soybean imports will reach 83.7%.
In this context, in 2019, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs restarted the soybean revitalization plan and determined the goal of "by 2020, the national soybean planting area will reach 140 million mu."
Subsequently, in 2020 and 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs continued to implement the soybean revitalization plan and reaffirmed this goal.
The sown area of soybeans was 140 million mu in 2019 and 148 million mu in 2020, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.9% and 5.9%, respectively.
However, by 2021, the sown area of soybeans will be 126 million mu, a decrease of 22 million mu or 14.8% from the previous year.
Currently, China’s soybean market has formed two relatively independent markets for food and feed. Domestic non-GMO soybeans are mainly used for food, processed soy products and soybean protein. Imported genetically modified soybeans are mainly used to meet the domestic demand for vegetable oil and protein meal, with 20% processed. It is processed into oil and 80% is processed into soybean meal.
Aige Agricultural Oils and Fats analyst Fu Zhenzhen told the CBN reporter that relatively speaking, domestic non-GMO soybean yields are relatively low, and planting costs are relatively high.
The oil production rate of domestic soybeans is lower than that of foreign genetically modified soybeans. In addition, the transportation cost of soybeans from Heilongjiang, the main producing area, to the coast is relatively high. The competitiveness of domestic soybeans in crushing is lower than that of imported soybeans.
Domestic soybeans are mainly used for high-protein food beans. Of course, some companies focus on non-GMO health brands and squeeze and sell non-GMO soybean oil.
Behind the "expansion of soybean and oilseed production" proposed by the central government this time is actually China's high dependence on foreign edible oil.
Soybean oil accounts for 50% of China’s vegetable oil consumption, followed by palm oil, rapeseed oil, peanut oil, cotton oil, sunflower oil, and corn germ oil.
However, their degree of external dependence is quite different.
Lin Guofa, research director of Breck·Agricultural Shopping Network, told China Business News that because pressed soybeans are imported genetically modified soybeans, the import of soybean oil is more than 90% dependent. In addition, rapeseed is also imported in large quantities. In general, domestic oil is dependent on foreign sources. Close to 80%.
In addition to palm oil, China's oilseeds and fats are mainly imported from South America and Eastern Europe, with a high concentration of import sources.
Appropriately reducing import dependence and increasing the domestic self-sufficiency rate will help ensure that the oil supply is in compliance.
He said that as a raw material for oleoprotein, domestic non-GMO soybeans are mainly used for various daily consumption of residents and food industry production.
Ensure the production of domestically produced non-GMO soybeans, which can well satisfy residents' consumption.
From the perspective of oil crops, increasing the output of rapeseed, peanuts, and sunflower seeds can effectively reduce the degree of dependence on oil imports.
At the same time, a reasonable reduction in the crude protein content of feed is conducive to reducing the demand for oil and protein imports, thereby reducing the degree of dependence on domestic oil imports.
However, from the perspective of arable land, according to the current domestic animal husbandry, food processing, and domestic oil consumption, it is difficult for domestic arable land to grow oil crops to meet the demand for oil and feed protein.
It is worth noting that in recent years, in areas suitable for winter rapeseed planting, the situation of land abandonment in winter is obvious, and the planting area has shown a downward trend.
Lin Guofa said that the main reason is that the planting income is low and a large number of rural people have migrated. The demand for self-growing rapeseed in traditional rural areas for oil extraction has declined, and the land circulation in areas where rapeseed is mainly grown is relatively weak, and the sporadic rapeseed plots are more obvious. .
According to the current situation, it is difficult to increase the planting area of rapeseed unless the land circulation is accelerated and the planting is mechanized into pieces.
(Author: Shao Haipeng)