What policy signals were released at the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the fourth quarter?
Our reporter Liu Qi
The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") has been regarded as the "weathervane" of monetary policy. Changes in the wording of monetary policy often herald the next phase of monetary policy trends.
On December 24, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank held a regular meeting for the fourth quarter of 2021.
The meeting pointed out that the prudent monetary policy maintains continuity, stability, and sustainability, scientifically manages market expectations, strives to serve the real economy, and effectively prevents and controls financial risks.
The dividends of the interest rate reform of the loan market quotation continued to be released, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy was enhanced, the loan interest rate was stable with a decline, the RMB exchange rate was expected to be stable, the two-way floating flexibility was enhanced, and the function of a macroeconomic stabilizer was exerted.
"Securities Daily" reporter combed and found that compared with the third quarter regular meeting, the fourth quarter regular meeting had some adjustments in the wording and some new formulations appeared.
For example, monetary policy should be more forward-looking, precise, and autonomous, and give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure; structural monetary policy tools should actively "addition"; better satisfy buyers' reasonable housing needs, etc. .
The RRR cut next year is still expected
"Prudence" is still the main tone of monetary policy.
The third quarter regular meeting put forward that “stable monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate”, while the fourth quarter regular meeting put forward “sound monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate”, which is consistent with the formulation of the December Central Economic Work Conference.
On this basis, the expression "enhance the forward-looking, precise, and autonomous, play the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools, be more proactive, and increase support for the real economy" has been added.
In an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily, Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that from the perspective of "forward-looking, precise, and autonomous", 2021 is a year of "transition" and monetary policy is gradually returning to normal. The overall tone is tightening marginally compared to last year. As the end of the year is approaching, to ensure a smooth transition of policies for this year and next, it is necessary to strengthen policy foresight and do a good job of corresponding policy convergence.
At present, my country's economic situation is generally stable and the total financing amount is reasonable. It is necessary to continue to guide the flow of funds to key economic areas and weak links, support high-quality economic development, and improve accuracy.
In addition, the monetary policy of the United States and other economies has begun to shift, and external disturbance factors have increased. However, the primary purpose of my country's monetary policy is to serve my country's economic development, that is, "self-centered", which needs to maintain autonomy.
"On the basis of adhering to the stability of the total amount and ensuring the unabated support for financing financing of the real economy, the monetary policy will pay more attention to precise guidance, actively increase support for small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development. While working on growth and supporting the development of the real economy, we must continue to improve the quality of development and guide credit resources to tilt towards areas that promote high-quality economic development." Liang Si said.
According to Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and chief macro analyst of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, the downward pressure on the economy will increase next year, and it is necessary to proactively and accurately increase cross-cycle adjustments to stabilize credit and growth; at the same time, China and the United States Monetary policy is divided and the Fed is speeding up the withdrawal of easing policies. China needs to "self-center", strengthen autonomy, moderately relax monetary policy, and boost the economy.
Monetary policy is expected to continue to exert force next year, and aggregate tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, as well as structural tools such as supporting agriculture and supporting small-scale refinancing, may be launched one after another.
The utility of structural tools is highlighted
Compared with the third quarter regular meeting, the fourth quarter regular meeting more prominently emphasized the role of structural monetary policy tools.
The meeting clearly stated that “Structural monetary policy tools should be actively'additional', and precise efforts should be made to transform the two monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy into market-oriented policy tools that support inclusive small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. Good carbon emission reduction support tools and special refinancing to support the clean and efficient use of coal, comprehensively implement policies to support coordinated regional development, and guide financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green development."
The Western Securities Research Report believes that structural monetary policy tools have two obvious characteristics: for the banking system, it is a tool for the central bank to support the liquidity of small banks. With the use of structural monetary policy tools, small banks directly The amount of liquidity obtained by the central bank has increased significantly; secondly, as far as the real economy is concerned, it is an important starting point for supporting policy support industries such as the green economy and small and micro enterprises.
In general, structural monetary policy has played a positive role in the adjustment of economic structure since the epidemic.
"As an important part of macro-control policies, structural monetary policy tools must be actively'additive', that is, more emphasis is placed on making a difference in specific areas, and continuously achieving incremental growth in specific areas, and consolidating the foundation of my country's economic development." Liang Si said.
Zhong Linnan, a senior macro analyst at GF Securities, believes that structural monetary policy tools will still be an important starting point for stable credit and stable growth in the future. Specific examples may include: promoting the implementation of structural tools that have been introduced, such as carbon emission reduction support tools and Special re-lending for the clean and efficient use of coal; convert two monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy into market-oriented policy tools that support inclusive small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households; continue to increase re-lending and rediscount lines to support inclusive finance and regional equilibrium developing.
Focus on the real estate market again
At the regular meeting of the third quarter, the real estate-related content was put forward for the first time-"Maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers."
The fourth quarter regular meeting also raised real estate-related content again, and focused more on-"maintain the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate market."
It can be found that "maintaining the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers" is placed in a more important position, and "better meeting the reasonable housing needs of buyers, promoting the healthy development of the real estate market and a virtuous circle" is also in line with the requirements of the December Central Economic Work Conference. .
It is worth noting that the central bank has separately disclosed statistics on personal housing loans since November this year.
From the data point of view, at the end of October, the personal housing loan balance was 37.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 348.1 billion yuan that month, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan over September; at the end of November, the personal housing loan balance was 38.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 401.3 billion yuan that month. An increase of 53.2 billion yuan over October.
This has undoubtedly released a policy signal for the central bank to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.
From the financing situation of real estate companies, the financing policies of real estate companies have also been "corrected."
A spokesperson for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said in early December that the China Banking Regulatory Commission will earnestly implement relevant national policies, and under the premise of implementing the prudent management of real estate finance, guide bancassurance institutions to provide financial services to the real estate and construction industries.
At this stage, it is necessary to focus on satisfying the mortgage needs for first homes and improved housing, reasonably issue real estate development loans and M&A loans, increase support for guaranteed rental housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry and the market.
Zhong Linnan believes that real estate financial policies will continue to be adjusted marginally, and the financial environment such as mortgage loan quotas and mortgage interest rates is expected to further improve.
(Securities Daily)