The previous explanations for the increasingly serious supply chain problems no longer work: The accident in the Suez Canal, the fire in an important chip factory, closed ports in China - none of this explains why Christmas gifts and industrial goods are delayed many months after these events.
The hope that the problem will solve itself quickly and more or less by itself is gone.
Rather, it is now clear that the congestion on the world's oceans has structural causes.
There is just too much going on.
World trade, which has grown by more than 10 percent this year, and the enormous demand for products from China are overwhelming ports and logistics providers who are running out of sailors and truck drivers.
There's a crunch everywhere and it will take up a lot of time to expand the infrastructure.
The supply chain problems are now the biggest drag on the German and global economy.
Nobody should therefore hope for a quick upswing - especially not if the fight against Omikron slows the world down again.