China-Singapore Jingwei, December 23 (Wang Yongle) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on real estate development and investment in 31 provinces from January to November 2021.
Statistics show that in the first 11 months of this year, investment in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang each exceeded one trillion yuan. The growth rate of 15 provinces outperformed the whole country, and Hubei led the country with five times the growth rate.
Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang Province Super Trillions Shandong Is Expected to "Promote"
From January to November 2021, the country's real estate development investment will amount to 1,37314 billion yuan.
Among them, the residential investment was 10,358.7 billion yuan.
In terms of provinces, from January to November, the amount of investment in real estate development in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong steadily ranked among the top four.
Among them, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang each exceeded 1 trillion yuan, which were 1,604.476 billion yuan, 1,270.914 billion yuan, and 1,161.260 billion yuan, respectively.
In addition, after Guangdong overtook Jiangsu in April, the cumulative difference between the two places increased month by month.
Screenshot of the National Bureau of Statistics website
Sino-Singapore Jingwei combed and found that since 2014, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have been firmly in the top three “thrones” of the annual real estate development investment list.
Among them, Guangdong ranked first for six consecutive years since 2015, and Jiangsu ranked first in 2014.
Judging from the current data, Guangdong will win again in 2021.
“The real estate market in Guangdong has always been relatively strong, especially the current Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Take Guangzhou as an example. In the past, Guangzhou was a city with lower housing prices among the first-tier cities, but it has also risen in recent years. The stamina of cities in Guangdong Province is very high. Strong, it is easy to drive the activity of real estate development investment data.” Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei.
In addition, from January to November, Shandong's investment reached 927.563 billion yuan, which was the first time that it exceeded 900 billion yuan in the first 11 months. It was only about 17 billion yuan away from the 945.49 billion yuan in the previous year. It is expected to be "upgraded" in 2021. Become the fourth province with an investment of over one trillion yuan.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that in terms of GDP in the first three quarters of 2021, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang ranked the top four.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin analyzed that economic indicators and economic strength are important factors affecting the investment scale of real estate companies. Such economically developed provinces have large populations and have more market digestion space for real estate development and investment, so these provinces often The scale of investment indicators is relatively large.
Screenshot of the main data of the seventh national census
Sino-Singapore Jingwei noted that the above-mentioned four provinces are the provinces with a net increase in population in recent years.
The seventh census population data shows that in the past ten years, Guangdong’s population has increased by 21.71 million, accounting for 30.1% of the national population increase.
The population of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong increased by 6.09 million, 10.14 million, and 5.74 million respectively, accounting for 30.5% of the national population increase in total.
In addition, Shandong and Zhejiang rank three or four in GDP rankings, while in the real estate development investment list, they swap rankings.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin pointed out that Zhejiang's property market has performed very strongly, especially from the perspective of housing price trends compared with Shandong.
According to the Real Estate Market Report of 31 Provinces by the E-House Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as the “Market Report”), from January to November, the average transaction prices of commercial housing in Zhejiang and Shandong rose by 13% and 3% respectively.
Outperformed Hubei in 15 places and led the country by five times faster
From January to November 2021, investment in real estate development across the country increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative growth rate fell for 9 consecutive months.
The two-year average growth rate was 6.4%, a decrease of 0.4% from January to October.
In terms of provinces, from January to November, 15 provinces including Hubei, Xinjiang, Gansu, Hunan, Hebei, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Sichuan, Beijing, Ningxia, Jiangxi, Qinghai, Shandong, Tianjin, and Shanxi increased by more than 6% year-on-year. Outperform the country.
Among them, Hubei, Xinjiang, Gansu and Hunan achieved double-digit growth rates.
Hubei is the leader with a growth rate of 5.02 times the national growth rate and a growth rate of 30.1%.
Speaking of Hubei's real estate development investment growth rate, Yan Yuejin pointed out that it was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic last year. The base number is relatively low, and it is easy to rebound from a statistical point of view.
"For Xinjiang, it is a province where the real estate market continues to expand. In particular, some prefecture-level cities and prefectures have a good development trend driven by the'Belt and Road' initiative." Yan Yuejin analyzed.
In addition, six provinces including Tibet, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Chongqing saw negative growth in investment.
It is worth noting that on December 20, the official website of the Heilongjiang Provincial Government released the "Provincial Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department Convenes a Dispatching Meeting to Deploy Fully Sprinting the Growth of the Real Estate Industry".
The meeting proposed to implement preferential policies.
It is necessary to implement various preferential policies for housing purchase subsidies to effectively stimulate the people's housing demand and release consumption potential; actively guide market expectations.
It is necessary to strengthen the guidance of public opinion, increase the willingness of real estate consumption, and boost market confidence.
The "Market Report" shows that in the first November of this year, there were 13 provinces in the country where housing prices fell. Among them, Heilongjiang had the largest drop of 10%, which fully illustrates the downward pressure on the current real estate market.
In the first November of this year, Heilongjiang's commercial housing transaction value increased by -18% year-on-year, ranking 29th among 31 provinces, only slightly less pressured than Yunnan and Qinghai.
Based on such market conditions, the convening of this dispatch meeting in Heilongjiang is indeed very necessary.
In addition, the "Survey Report on Real Estate Markets in Certain Cities in Liaoning Province" recently released by the Liaoning Provincial Development and Reform Commission showed that investment in real estate development in Liaoning from January to August increased by 3.9% year-on-year; Start to tighten.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that in November, real estate development investment as a whole entered the "moderate" range, and subsequent efforts should be made to prevent the data from entering the "over-cold" range.
Real estate development investment is a high-quality indicator to measure the prosperity of real estate development.
At present, in the short term, real estate development investment is slightly depressed, which is related to the failure to achieve continuous improvement in the real estate sales environment.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities and director of the research institute, recently wrote an analysis that the Central Economic Work Conference will pay more attention to the deployment of real estate in 2022 to "strengthen the expected guidance"-promote the construction of affordable housing and support the commercial housing market to better satisfy the purchase of houses The reasonable housing needs of the residents, and the city’s policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Therefore, it is not appropriate to be too pessimistic about China's real estate investment in 2022 by linear extrapolation.
At present, to reverse the downward trend of real estate investment, there are two core issues to be solved: First, to speed up land supply as soon as possible, and it is urgent to further straighten out the centralized land supply mechanism.
The second is "confidence is more expensive than gold."
In order for real estate companies to return to a benign track of high turnover and lower leverage, they need to be protected by policies.
On December 3, 2021, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission required "reasonable granting of real estate development loans and M&A loans", which is an important signal to alleviate the over-tightening of funding sources for real estate companies. The Central Economic Work Conference "strengthening expected guidance" has also clarified the policy direction.
Shanghai Securities analyst Hu Yuexiao and others pointed out that the recent real estate policy has shown signs of marginal improvement, and real estate companies have issued bonds faster. From the perspective of the sources of real estate development funds, although the overall situation is still declining, the self-raised funds in the sub-items , The two-year average growth rate of personal mortgage loans stopped falling and rebounded.
The financing environment for real estate companies has improved marginally.
The reasonable financing needs of real estate companies are supported, and real estate investment may be expected to stabilize in the future.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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