The gas explodes.
The price of gas in Europe broke a new record Tuesday on the first day of winter, boosted by seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions between the main supplier, Russia, and its customers.
"European natural gas continues its inexorable rise", noted analysts at Deutsche Bank, due to "temperatures which continue to drop in Europe" and "the lack of reservation by Gazprom (the Russian gas giant) of additional capacity in January for gas passing through Ukraine ”.
The European price rose 22% on Tuesday
The benchmark European price, the very volatile Dutch TTF, gained more than 22% on Tuesday to settle at 180.267 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), after peaking at 187.785 euros shortly after 3:00 p.m. GMT (4:00 p.m. in Paris).
UK gas for delivery next month saw a comparable rise and closed at 451.72 pence per therm (a unit of heat), after peaking in the session at 470.83 pence.
These highs are ten times higher than the prices seen a year ago.
For some analysts, the recent acceleration in the price spike - by more than 90% since December 1 - illustrates both strong European demand as temperatures drop and fears over supply, a third of which comes from Russia. .
A pressurized gas pipeline
The renewed tensions at the border between Russia and Ukraine are regularly highlighted by market observers to explain the surge in prices.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday promised a "military and technical" response if his Western rivals do not end their policies deemed threatening.
For the Kremlin, the United States and NATO are strengthening their presence at the Russian borders by arming Ukraine, supporting it politically, carrying out maneuvers and deploying forces in the Black Sea.
On the contrary, the West accuse Moscow of aggressive inclinations, the Russian army having massed tens of thousands of soldiers on the border with Ukraine, a country from which Russia has already annexed part of the territory.
Nord Stream at the center of tensions
The change of tone in Berlin on the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is also at the center of investors' concerns, which also allows bypassing Ukraine, the transit route currently used for much of the Russian gas purchased by the Union. European (EU). The 1,200-kilometer pipeline runs under the waters of the Baltic Sea from Russia to northeastern Germany and has always been defended by former Conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The new German government of Social Democrat Olaf Scholz is far less conciliatory.
Thus, the German Minister of the Economy, the ecologist Robert Habeck, warned Saturday against "severe consequences" for the pipeline in the event of Russian aggression against Ukraine, in line with the steps of the new head of Diplomacy Annalena Baerbock who had threatened on December 12 "shutdown" outright of Nord Stream 2 in the event of an escalation in Ukraine.
The decision to certify the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by the German regulator is not expected before mid-2022.
Inventories started
Gas stocks in Europe were also affected by a prolonged winter in 2020 and have not been sufficiently replenished since.
In addition, there is a reduced contribution of renewable energies, such as wind power, for meteorological reasons.
This surge is having repercussions on the electricity market, particularly in the United Kingdom where energy production is much more dependent on gas and renewable energies than in France, for example, where nuclear dominates in the production of electricity.
Faced with soaring costs, half of British electricity distributors have gone out of business since this summer.
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