The day after the Central Economic Work Conference closed
Chen Wenling, Chief Economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, is a guest
CCTV News "Theory of Relativity·The Question of New Year's Eve"
Keep answering for two hours
Chen Wenling said with a smile
"It feels like you asked a hundred questions"
The spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference
"Steady Words, Seek Progress in Stability"
More than 4000 word draft
Contains 25 "stable" characters
What will the economy do next year?
Everyone has many small question marks
↓He is Ding Cheng who drove a truck to help "Vulcan Mountain"↓
↓He is the first e-sports graduate Hu Yifan↓
↓He is the American video blogger Guo Jerry↓
From the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" to the "14th Five-Year Plan"
Chen Wenling participated in all relevant planning
Formulation, research or expert review
New Year's Eve Q&A
The "hard core" economy can also be understood very well
↓↓↓
The following is a partial Q&A record:
Question: When the meeting set the tone for next year's economic work, the word "Pledge of Stability" was added before the "Seek Progress in Stability" of previous years. This "stable", what is to be stable?
Chen Wenling: The
central government wants to stabilize the macro economy and stabilize the overall situation.
"Being stable and seeking progress while maintaining stability" is a basic point and a bottom line for next year's work.
my country has achieved important results in fighting the epidemic, resuming work and production, and resuming business and markets.
It is necessary to prevent unnecessary fluctuations due to some of its own methods and ideas, policy rhythms, and control methods.
We must turn the created stock resources into incremental resources, and turn the created integration advantages into new competitive advantages.
Question: Looking at this year's conference from an international perspective, what are the differences?
Chen Wenling: The
international environment has not improved much. Major changes unseen in a century have accelerated. The duration of the new crown epidemic has surpassed the Spanish pandemic.
The central government has a clear understanding of this. This year's central economic work conference is mainly "eyes inward", which embodies the consistent spirit of the central government and is based on running its own affairs well.
In the “Structural Policy” section of the conference, it was mentioned that “emphasis is on smoothing the domestic big cycle”, which is more prominent, that is to make the domestic economy stable, advance under stable conditions, optimize under stable conditions, Upgrade under stable conditions.
Question: In the next ten years, what are the opportunities for the trade between the United States and China?
Chen Wenling:
Let alone the next ten years, even during the epidemic, China's exports to the United States will grow by more than 20%. The US market has a very urgent demand for imported Chinese goods.
So you said, what are the opportunities for trade?
There are opportunities for the US government to abandon the trade war.
Question: Last year's Central Economic Work Conference made carbon peaking and carbon neutrality one of the key tasks for the first time. This year's formulation is "We must unswervingly advance, but it is impossible to complete the effort." How do you think about the word "but"?
Chen Wenling:
China is striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
why?
Because we are a post-developed country and we are still in the industrialization stage.
The U.S. has undergone three industrial restructuring, and is currently dominated by the service industry, which has very little carbon emissions.
But 20 years ago, the US had the highest carbon emissions in the world.
In 2002, I went to Johannesburg, South Africa to attend the Sustainable Development Conference, but the United States did not attend the conference.
Later, the United States refused to ratify the "Kyoto Protocol," and it simply did not attend the meeting in South Africa because it was the largest carbon emitter at that time.
Now whether the United States or Europe is increasing pressure on China, they have ignored a very important objective fact, that is, they have passed the stage of industrialization and turned to industries with low carbon emissions, but their markets and their imports , Is produced by China's manufacturing industry.
I personally think that this is actually a kind of "carbon shift".
China is a large responsible country. We unswervingly promote carbon peaking and carbon neutrality for our future development and the living environment of the entire planet.
However, the meeting pointed out that "it is impossible to complete the work in one battle", which means that this goal is to 2060, which is a 40-year goal.
Some things can be fast and then slow, and some things can be slow and fast. When the quality is improved, the structure is optimized, and the industrial structure has been adjusted, carbon emissions will naturally come down.
Therefore, it is not possible to concentrate the tasks of the past 40 years in this year, or next year or in the last few years. In particular, it cannot cause great impact and influence on our "stability".
So I think the formulation this time captures the contradiction of the problem very accurately.
Question: I want to open a fresh fruit store, but big online companies are fighting fierce price wars. Is there room for small physical stores to survive?
Chen Wenling:
Whether it is new consumption or so-called traditional consumption, there are actually market opportunities.
It mainly depends on how you segment the market, and what type of population you want to create supply.
I think not all stores will be online stores in the future, and some physical stores will return.
So starting from a physical store, it is possible to succeed.
Question: For truck transportation, I am most concerned about next year's oil and gas prices. Can they be directly proportional to the freight?
Chen Wenling: The
recent wave of global inflation is mainly reflected in such commodities as oil prices, gas prices, and coal prices.
It was mainly due to the loose policies that started in the United States, the flood of liquidity and the excessive printing of money, which caused prices to rise.
The U.S. balance sheet began to compress this month, and it sent a very important signal that the U.S. dollar may shift from easing to tightening.
The result of austerity is a decline in commodity prices, which may be an inflection point for global inflation.
The price of oil and gas, which the driver masters are concerned about, may go down next year.
There may be some pressure on CPI next year, but overall prices will remain relatively stable.
Question: The Central Economic Work Conference not only mentioned “promoting a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry”, and once again made it clear that “houses must be used for living, not for speculation”. What signal was released?
Chen Wenling:
In fact, it is a very stable signal. "Housing is not a real estate speculation" is the keynote. It is not for you to be a financial tool. It is impossible to have a "real estate speculation dream".
However, the real estate market is a very large market, one of the industries that has the greatest bearing on the national economy, people's livelihood and economic stability.
The debt problem of real estate companies will bring greater risks, and flexible and improving consumer demand must be encouraged.
The housing price must also reflect the word "stable".
The housing prices in big cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen should not fluctuate greatly. Once the structure that has been formed is disrupted, it will have a great impact on the economy.
With the return of population in big cities, the real estate industry in third- and fourth-tier cities will develop again, especially where the environment and industries are better.
Question: From the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" to the "14th Five-Year Plan", you have participated in the formulation, research or expert review. In the past ten years, what have you been most concerned about?
Chen Wenling: In the
nine years since the 18th National Congress of the
Communist Party of China
, I feel that whether it is poverty alleviation, anti-corruption, or the development of the digital economy and mediation on the international stage, China's status and influence have greatly improved.
The Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed "two establishments." In fact, in the competition among major powers, what do I think is our biggest advantage?
It is the certainty of our leaders, the certainty of the ruling team, and the certainty of the strategies, guidelines, and policies of the Chinese Communist Party.
We are walking forward on a deterministic and continuous track.
Question: Looking forward to the next 5 years, choose three key words. What do you think they will be?
Chen Wenling:
One is high-quality development, which is the core of the "14th Five-Year Plan"; the other is the digital economy, which will be a strong driving force for us, and the digital infrastructure will also have a big leap. Digital economy, digital society, and digital government will all With great development, China will be at the forefront of the world in the digital economy; third, made in China, which can only be strengthened but not weakened. This is our advantage and our confidence.
Small survey: Where was the biggest expenditure this year?
Where do you plan to spend the next big sum of money?
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