China-Singapore Jingwei, December 17 (Xiong Jiali) Today (17th) at 24:00, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open.
Institutions generally predict that domestic refined oil prices will fall in this round of price adjustment cycles, which may be the sixth drop in refined oil prices this year.
New Jingwei Wan Keyi in the data map
In the early morning of December 16, Beijing time, international oil prices rose.
WTI January crude oil futures closed up 0.05 US dollars, or 0.07%, to 70.78 US dollars per barrel; Brent's February crude oil futures closed up 0.18 US dollars, or 0.24%, to 73.88 US dollars per barrel.
Inventory data shows that the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending December 10 decreased by 4.584 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 2.082 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 241,000 barrels.
According to analysis by Meng Xiao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, in the context of the easing of the mutated strain of Omi Keron during the cycle, oil prices have started to repair the market. During this period, the forecast range of domestic refined oil batch and zero price reductions has been narrowing, but the global increase The number of confirmed diagnoses is still rising. The severe epidemic situation has once again heated up market risk aversion, and crude oil futures are still operating under pressure. Therefore, the current round of zero price limit for refined oil products is expected to continue to decline.
According to calculations from Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the close of the market on December 15, the reference crude oil change rate for the 9th working day in China is -2.39%, and gasoline and diesel are expected to be reduced by 110 yuan/ton.
According to the estimation of the 50L capacity of the general family car fuel tank, a full tank of 92# gasoline will save about 4.5 yuan compared to the previous one.
According to statistics from the Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, since 2021, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for 23 rounds. Gasoline prices have increased by 1,475 yuan/ton in total, and diesel prices have increased by 1,420 yuan/ton in total, showing "14 up, five down, four stranded." "The pattern.
Of the five price cuts that have been lowered, the largest adjustment was made on December 3, in which gasoline was reduced by 430 yuan per ton and diesel was reduced by 415 yuan per ton.
If this forecast is fulfilled, domestic refined oil prices will be lowered for the sixth time this year, which is also the first "three consecutive declines" this year.
In accordance with the "ten working days" principle, the next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on December 31, 2021.
Longzhong Information analyst Liu Bingjuan predicts that the next round of refined oil price adjustments is more likely to be stranded.
Jin Lianchuang analyst Zou Xuelian believes that the market outlook for oil demand will gradually shrink, weakening the support for the market, and gasoline demand will remain weak.
The fundamentals lack favorable guidance, and the domestic automobile and diesel market continues to be under pressure.
However, in the early period of the New Year's Day holiday, the main business units are willing to stand up to the price, and the price is slightly supported.
It is expected that the domestic automobile and diesel market will be mainly consolidated in a narrow range in the near future.
Looking ahead, Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that in 2022, the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel in China's refined oil market will generally rise and then fall, with a relatively limited range of price fluctuations.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
All rights reserved by Sino-Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may reprint, extract and use it in other ways.