National Bureau of Statistics: In November, China’s economy continued to recover.
National Bureau of Statistics: The main objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year are expected to be better achieved
On December 15, the Information Office of the State Council held a press conference to introduce the operation of the national economy in November.
Data show that in November, my country's economy continued to maintain its recovery momentum.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the perspective of the whole year, my country's economy is expected to recover steadily, with major indicators remaining within a reasonable range.
The main objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year are expected to be better achieved.
Talking about the economic situation next year, Fu Linghui said that the Central Economic Work Conference made a judgment that "my country's economic development is facing a triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening."
However, we must see that the fundamentals of my country's long-term improvement have not changed.
From the perspective of next year's development, there is still good support for overcoming difficult challenges and maintaining stable economic operations.
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Industrial production has been picking up for two consecutive months
A number of data show that in November, my country's economy continued to maintain its recovery momentum.
The main indicators including industry, consumption, and foreign trade are all within a reasonable range: from January to November, the value added of industries above designated size increased by 10.1% year-on-year, the service industry production index increased by 14%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.7%, and the total volume of imports and exports of goods increased. twenty two%.
Among them, with the gradual end of the impact of power cuts, industrial production has been picking up for two consecutive months.
In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.8% year-on-year, which continued to accelerate by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The power cuts that occurred in September this year were mainly caused by the tight coal supply from the upstream, and this problem has been eased to some extent.
In November, the output of raw coal increased by 4.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
The increase in output has brought down prices. In November, the ex-factory price of coal mining and washing industry fell by 4.9% from the previous month.
Not only coal, but the supply of many scarce products that have affected industrial production has increased since the beginning of this year.
The “core shortage” of automobiles eased. In November, automobile production fell by 7.1% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed.
From January to November, the output of metal containers and integrated circuits increased by 129.7% and 37.1% year-on-year respectively.
New momentum continues to maintain rapid growth, which is reflected in all areas that support economic growth.
In the field of industrial production, in November, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 15.1% year-on-year; the output of industrial robots and new energy vehicles increased by 27.9% and 112% respectively.
In the investment field, investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 22.2%.
In the consumer sector, from January to November, the retail sales of physical online goods increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and the retail sales of consumer upgraded goods grew faster than the overall growth rate.
In terms of foreign trade, in November, the total value of imports and exports of goods increased by 20.5% year-on-year, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month.
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Manufacturing investment is growing faster than all investment
Among industries, the added value of manufacturing above designated size increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 0.4%.
Manufacturing investment is growing faster than all investment.
At the same time, market expectations are improving. In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI rebounded for the first time since April, reaching above the critical point, and the manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range.
The manufacturing industry accounts for close to 30% of my country's GDP and is called the "ballast stone" of the economy, which shows its importance.
But in recent years, the continued decline in this proportion has caused concern.
Especially this year, the PMI has been declining since April, and in September and October it even fell below the 50% critical value and entered the contraction zone.
Until November, PMI returned to the expansion range.
Fu Linghui said that this rebound is mainly due to two reasons. One is that with the intensified market policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the increase in industrial production prices has fallen, reducing the production costs of enterprises and improving their expectations.
For example, coal prices fell month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase in prices in the steel and non-ferrous industries also fell.
The second is that the government’s efforts to help companies are increasing. In the face of the sharp rise in industrial product prices, especially the increased pressure on production and operation in some mid- and downstream industries, the government has introduced a series of stabilizing economies, especially for mid-downstream companies, small and medium-sized enterprises. This is also conducive to improving the business expectations of enterprises.
He said that in the next stage, despite multiple pressures, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement remain unchanged.
With the intensification of macro policy adjustments, the policy of ensuring supply and price stabilization continues to be effective, and the expansion of domestic demand continues to strengthen, enterprises are expected to maintain overall stability.
It is also understood that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently stated that it will make every effort to stabilize the growth of the industrial economy, keep the proportion of the manufacturing industry basically stable, and build a firm "ballast stone" in the economy.
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The national real estate market is generally stable
In the first 11 months of this year, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 2.5 percentage points lower than that from January to October; investment in real estate development increased by 6%, down 1.2 percentage points from January to October.
Relevant data show that personal real estate loans have rebounded for two consecutive months.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that the city should implement policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
What is the situation of the real estate industry next year?
Fu Linghui first emphasized the general tone of "housing and housing, not speculation". On this basis, he said that since the beginning of this year, various localities have adopted various means to promote the healthy development of the real estate market, and the results have gradually appeared. The momentum was suppressed.
From a national perspective, the real estate market is generally stable. Commercial housing sales and investment have maintained growth, and the growth has slowed.
In the next stage, we will continue to insist on simultaneous purchase and rent, accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers.
In response to the debt risks exposed by individual real estate companies this year, Fu Linghui said that some cities are affected by multiple factors such as population outflow and economic development difficulties. The downward pressure on the real estate market has increased. Some real estate companies that rely on high debt to expand blindly in the early stage have debt The risk rises.
Despite these problems, the real estate industry still has more favorable conditions for stable development. After market adjustments, market participants have become more rational, and the real estate long-term mechanism is gradually improving.
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There is still a good foundation for maintaining stable economic development
At present, the international situation is complex and severe, the global epidemic is spreading, the supply chain of the industrial chain is not smooth, the price of bulk commodities is rising, and the domestic periodic structural problems are prominent. Fu Linghui said, "The economy is indeed experiencing new downward pressure."
The Central Economic Work Conference held not long ago made a judgment that "my country's economic development is facing a triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and expected weakening."
Specifically, the demand side mainly depends on the two domestic demand indicators of consumption and investment: the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has fallen from the double-digit growth at the beginning of the year to single digits, and the two-year average growth rate has fallen from 6.3% in March to The growth rate in August was 1.5%. Although it improved in these two months, it was still at a low level. The year-on-year growth rate of investment also fell from the double-digit growth at the beginning of the year to single-digit growth, with a two-year average growth rate. There has also been a downward trend as a whole, reflecting the changes in demand contraction.
In terms of supply, international bulk commodity prices have risen, some domestic energy and metal supplies have been tight, and the impact of core shortages in certain industries such as automobiles has been significantly affected. Industrial production prices have continued to rise.
The increase in PPI (Ex-factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) expanded from 0.3% in January to 13.5% in October. Although the increase in November declined, it was still at a relatively high level; automobile production also experienced a continuous year-on-year decline, reflecting the supply The impact of shocks.
Looking at expectations again, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index PMI has fallen continuously since April, and fell to a contraction range in September and October. Among them, the small business manufacturing PMI has been in a contraction range for 7 consecutive months.
The business activity index of the service industry has been affected by the epidemic and fluctuates greatly, but on the whole it is also showing a downward trend.
On the whole, the average growth rate of GDP in the first, second and third quarters was 5%, 5.5% and 4.9% respectively in two years. The economic growth rate in the third quarter dropped significantly, reflecting the downward pressure on the economy.
How will these triple pressures affect the economic operation next year?
Fu Linghui said that despite these three pressures, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the characteristics of strong resilience are also prominent.
In the next stage, we will continue to do a good job in the organic combination of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments of macroeconomic policies, and there is still a good foundation for maintaining stable economic development.
Beijing News reporter Jiang Huizi