The winter moon is here, and the end of the year is coming.

The real estate market in 2021 will be ups and downs.

　　In the first half of the year, real estate development loans, sales area and sales were very active, and housing prices rose steadily in some cities.

The turning point occurred in the middle of the year. Financial control policies such as the "third-tier and fourth-tier" financing management rules for real estate companies and the management of loan concentration by banking financial institutions gradually took the stage, especially after the liquidity risk of individual large real estate companies was used as the "fuse" , The market has cooled significantly in the second half of the year.

As market conditions have taken a turn for the worse, the virtuous circle of the real estate industry has been broken to a certain extent.

　　The Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago proposed that city-specific policies should promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, clarifying the focus of the current and future development of the real estate market.

At present, the debt problems of some real estate companies are more prominent. Real estate sales, investment, and land transfers are all showing signs of slowing down. In some cities, housing prices are falling and house purchases are wait-and-see.

Especially for regions with high industrial dependence, once the real estate market slows excessively, it may trigger a more complicated risk transmission chain.

　　Real estate is large in scale, long in chain, and involves a wide range of areas. It occupies a high share of the national economy, fixed asset investment in the whole society, local fiscal revenue, and total loans from financial institutions. It has an important systemic impact on economic and financial stability and risk prevention. .

　　How to achieve a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry?

Stable expectations are an important prerequisite.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to strengthen expected guidance.

Affected by the debt crisis of individual real estate companies and the current downward pressure on the real estate market, many people are not optimistic about the future development of the industry.

In fact, despite the relatively serious debt problems of individual real estate companies, it is still a case. The reason is that the companies themselves are not doing well, and its impact need not be overstated. The overall healthy development of my country’s real estate market will not change. The risks of individual companies It will not affect the normal financing function of the mid- to long-term real estate market.

　　At the same time, the reasonable housing needs of buyers are being met.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that it will support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers.

Data released by the central bank on December 13 showed that at the end of November, the balance of personal housing loans was 38.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 401.3 billion yuan that month, an increase of 53.2 billion yuan over October.

The recent increase in the balance of personal housing loans is conducive to better meeting the mortgage demand for first and improved housing.

　　On the basis of stable expectations, the supply and demand blockage is expected to break through, and a virtuous circle of the real estate industry can be expected.

The cooling of the real estate market is easily transmitted to other links. When the transaction volume of second-hand houses decreases and the number of buyers who sell old and buy new houses decreases, the new house market may be lacking in people’s interest, and sales in the new house market directly affect the company’s return. Reduce the enthusiasm of enterprises to acquire land, and then transmit the cooling to the land market.

It can be seen that the stagnation of one link can easily make the entire market "unmovable".

To achieve a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, efforts should be made to control the liquidity risks of real estate enterprises and avoid the transmission of local risks to the entire system.

At the same time, it is necessary to unblock all links in the chain of "financing, land acquisition, sales, loans, and payment collection".

The improvement of financing for real estate enterprises and the credit environment for buyers will help the real estate industry to further realize a virtuous circle.

　　To achieve a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, companies need to continuously explore new development models.

The high leverage, high debt, and high turnover development model of the real estate industry in the past 20 years has been unsustainable; my country as a whole will gradually shift from the incremental development of large-scale demolition and construction to the transformation of stock; from the perspective of housing supply, the past repurchase, Light lease, shift to both hire and purchase, etc.

All these determine that real estate companies should adapt to changes and explore new development models.

　　In the process of advancing the solution of housing problems, housing leasing will play an increasingly important role.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to insist on simultaneous rental and purchase and accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market.

Specialized and large-scale housing leasing companies are an important carrier for improving professional services in the leasing market.

Factors such as high costs and narrow profit margins in the leasing industry have hindered the professionalization and large-scale development of enterprises.

Statistics show that the institutionalization rate of housing leasing in my country's first-tier cities is still less than 15%.

Therefore, to accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, we should accelerate the cultivation of specialized and large-scale housing leasing companies.

　　To realize housing for all people, housing security cannot be absent.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the construction of affordable housing.

my country's housing security system has completed the top-level design, and the main body includes public rental housing, affordable rental housing, and shared property housing.

Among them, affordable rental housing that focuses on solving outstanding housing problems in big cities and alleviating housing difficulties for new citizens and young people will become the top priority of affordable housing in the new development stage.

　　The Central Economic Work Conference once again emphasized that "housing and housing should not be speculated", indicating that there is no room for breakthroughs in the bottom line.

To promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, we should start with "stability and progress in stability" and "strive to unblock the national economic cycle" instead of stimulating and speculating on real estate.

(Source of this article: Economic Daily Author: Kang Shu)