The latest ten cities with net inflow of population: Shenzhen is the first city in the central and western regions
Net population inflow refers to the difference between the permanent resident population and the registered population. If the permanent resident population is greater than the registered population, it means that the city's population is in a net inflow, otherwise, it is a net outflow.
Then, after the seventh national census, which cities have my country's net influx of people?
According to the recent 2021 statistical yearbooks, the 2020 statistical bulletins, and public data released by various localities, the reporter of China Business News selected 40 large and medium-sized cities with a large population inflow. The ten cities with the most inflows are Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Dongguan, Chengdu, Suzhou, Foshan, Hangzhou and Zhengzhou.
Among them, 8 are in the eastern coastal area, and 1 each in the central and western regions.
Shenzhen and Shanghai have a net inflow of over 10 million people
It should be noted that a part of the registered population in a place will always flow out. Even in developed cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, a part of the registered population will be out of town.
Therefore, the data of the permanent resident population in these cities will be greater than the value of the net population inflow.
Secondly, due to the different thresholds for settlement in different regions, some second-tier cities have lower thresholds for settlement. Therefore, many of the registered population in these places are those who have settled in recent years. In general, the population inflows from these places are more than the net inflow data.
Third, the household registration population data for 2020 in some places has not yet been released.
Therefore, the household registration population data of some cities use the data of 2019, and there will be some deviations from the final data.
However, in general, the change in the registered population is relatively small compared with the change in the permanent population. Therefore, the deviation of the estimated net inflow data is also relatively small.
In addition, the permanent population of some cities is based on the data at the end of 2020, while the permanent population of some cities uses the data of the 7th census (zero o'clock on November 1, 2020). The two-month time difference will also bring about the permanent population. Some changes, but the deviation is small.
Statistics show that the net population inflows of the four major first-tier cities rank among the top four. Among them, the net population inflows of Shenzhen and Shanghai exceed 10 million.
Statistics show that Shenzhen’s net inflow reached 11.79 million, ranking first in the country.
According to the "Guangdong Statistical Yearbook 2021", by the end of 2020, the permanent resident population in Shenzhen reached 17.63338 million, while the registered population reached 5.8458 million during the same period, and the net inflow population was 11.788 million.
Shenzhen’s original “indigenous” accounted for a very low proportion, and many registered populations have only gradually settled in the past two decades.
According to data from the Seventh Census, Shenzhen’s population increase in the past ten years has reached 7,136,500, leading the way among major cities.
In recent years, Shenzhen's high-tech industries have developed rapidly, and the development of emerging industries has gathered a large number of people.
At the same time, the two super-first-tier cities of Beijing and Shanghai have large populations and problems such as overpopulation, traffic congestion, and ecological environment. Beijing and Shanghai have successively proposed population control and relief policies.
After the population of the two cities reached their peak around 2014, their growth has been slow since 2015.
Under such circumstances, some of the population moved from Beijing and Shanghai to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Zheng Yujie, assistant to the dean of the China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute and director of the think tank’s research and information department, analyzed by China Business News that after a large influx of population, social governance is currently a big challenge for Shenzhen.
In particular, the shortcomings of housing, education, and medical care are more obvious, and public facilities in Shenzhen are facing great pressure.
At present, the population density of Shenzhen is very high in the world, and the development intensity is very high. The population space that can be added in the future is already relatively small.
In June of this year, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources publicized the "Shenzhen Land and Space Master Plan (2020-2035)" (draft), and publicly solicited opinions from the public.
Among them, one thing that has attracted much attention is that by 2035, Shenzhen's permanent population may be controlled at 19 million.
This also means that in the next 14 years or so, Shenzhen's population increment space is about 1.37 million, with an average annual increment of less than 100,000 people.
In addition to Shenzhen, Shanghai's net population inflow has exceeded 10 million.
It is worth noting that after Shanghai has relieved its non-core functions in recent years, although Shanghai's permanent population has only increased by 1.8517 million over the past decade, the population with university education has increased by 3.371 million during this period, ranking first in the country in terms of talent increment.
This also shows that Shanghai has been accelerating the adjustment and upgrading of its industrial structure in recent years and has gathered a large number of talents.
In particular, Shanghai, as the leading city of China's most developed urban agglomeration, has a strong attraction to talents from the Yangtze River Delta, East China, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the Central Plains.
The other two first-tier cities, Guangshen, ranked third and fourth in net population inflows, with 8.89 million and 7.88 million respectively.
Among them, according to the "Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2021", the permanent population of Beijing in 2020 will be 21.89 million, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous year. This is the fourth consecutive year that Beijing's permanent population has declined slightly since 2017.
Table: Net inflow of population in 40 cities (population unit: ten thousand people)
Two cities in the Midwest are listed
Looking at the 10 cities with the largest net population inflows, 8 are from the eastern coastal areas, all from the three major economic circles of the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
Among them, there are four in the Pearl River Delta region, namely Shenzhen ranked first, Guangzhou third, Dongguan fifth, and Foshan eighth.
It is worth noting that Guangdong is also the province with the largest inflow of people from outside the province, with 29.62 million inflows from outside the province, which is more than 13 million more than Zhejiang, which ranks second.
The population that flows into Guangdong from outside the province is mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta. The Pearl River Delta not only attracts a large influx of people from outside the province, but also attracts population inflows from the east, west and north of Guangdong in the province. Therefore, the four major cities in the Pearl River Delta are Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan, and Foshan. The net population inflow to cities is also very large.
Three cities including Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Foshan all have a pattern of migrant permanent residents more than registered permanent residents.
In addition to the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta city cluster also has three cities in the top ten in terms of net population inflows, namely Shanghai, which ranks second, Suzhou, seventh, and Hangzhou, ninth.
The current total permanent population of these three cities is also among the top three in the Yangtze River Delta.
One city in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration ranks in the top ten in terms of net population inflow, that is, Beijing, which has a net inflow of 7.88 million people.
Outside the three coastal economic circles, two of the top ten cities are from the central and western regions, namely Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province with the largest registered population, and Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan, the most populous and economic province in the west.
These two cities are strong provincial capitals, and the total population of the provinces where they are located is very large. In recent years, in the process of accelerating urbanization in the local area, a large number of people from prefectures and cities in the province have flowed into the provincial capitals. Therefore, the permanent population of these two places in the past ten years Increases are among the best.
Statistics show that in the past ten years, Chengdu's permanent population has increased to 5.8189 million, ranking third in the country.
Zhengzhou's population growth ranks fifth in the country.
A major background here is that in the past, the urbanization level of the central and western regions, especially the agricultural and populous provinces, was quite different from that of the eastern coastal regions.
However, after 2008, as the comprehensive cost of coastal land and labor has risen, industries in coastal areas have shifted to the central and western regions, and the level of industrialization and urbanization in the central and western regions has been accelerating. Central cities, especially powerful provincial capitals, have led regional development and attracted Large population inflows from other cities in the province.
Peng Peng, vice chairman of the Guangdong Provincial Institutional Reform Research Association, analyzed by China Business News that the strong second-tier cities such as Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Wuhan, Xi’an, and Chongqing have experienced rapid economic development and population agglomeration in recent years. The gap between cities is getting smaller and smaller, the living conditions are good, and the pressure of life is not so great.
In recent years, more and more people have stayed in these cities.
On the other hand, since 2017, as strong second-tier cities such as Xi’an, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan have substantially relaxed the threshold for settlement, attracting talents to settle down, a considerable part of the registered population of these cities has been in the “talent battle” in recent years. China and Singapore settled down, so the scale of population inflows in these powerful provincial capitals is actually larger than the data shows.
In addition, the population flow of Chongqing, a municipality directly under the Central Government, is in a state of net outflow, with a current net outflow of 2.0378 million people.
One big reason for this is that, as a municipality directly under the Central Government, Chongqing has a registered population of 34.127 million and an area of 82,400 square kilometers, which is equivalent to a medium-sized province.
Among them, a large number of people are distributed in the districts and counties under their jurisdiction, especially in the southeast and northeast areas of Chongqing. Due to the underdeveloped economy in these areas, a large number of people have flowed out, not only to the developed areas of the southeast coast, but also to the main urban area of Chongqing.
According to the seventh national census data, Chongqing has a floating population of 4,811,400, a cross-provincial inflow of 2,193,600, and an intra-city floating population of 2,617,800.
In the past 10 years, the inflow of inter-provincial population increased by 1,151,600.
The sustained economic and social development of Chongqing has increased its attractiveness to talents, and the scale of inflow population has further expanded.