The roof resources in rural areas are becoming sweet and delicious.
This year, in the context of the country’s policy of “achieving carbon peaks by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060”, and related departments’ release of the rooftop photovoltaic “entire county promotion” pilot program, power central enterprises that originally relied on traditional energy have increased It has made great efforts to lay out the photovoltaic market, "staking horses and enclosures" everywhere, and the momentum of expansion is no less than that of private enterprises.
On December 12, the State Power Investment Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "State Power Investment") held a county and large user development promotion meeting to fully promote the entire county's rooftop distributed photovoltaic power station pilot business. The target counties have exceeded 100.
China Huaneng has also made frequent moves. Its distributed photovoltaic county-wide promotion project in Fujian has a total investment of 1.8 billion yuan. It also plans to acquire Linyang Energy's 600MW photovoltaic power station.
A photovoltaic industry agent told China Business News that leading power central enterprises are rushing to eat the "cake" of the "county-wide promotion" of distributed photovoltaic power stations across the country.
Unlike the last wave of craze a few years ago, the household photovoltaic industry has now moved from high subsidies to the era of parity.
How to avoid the recurrence of chaos such as the blind increase of financial leverage and the runaway of small and scattered enterprises, and to achieve a win-win situation for all parties, still need the government to fix the position and financial institutions to control the risks. It is also essential for enterprises to explore new business models.
Photovoltaic rises up again
Liu Guisheng, who lives in Xinxiang, Henan, installed 61 solar panels on his roof in September 2021.
His roof is 16 meters long from east to west and 9 meters wide from north to south. There are four rows of solar panels with 15 pieces in a row, and one corner is installed with one extra piece.
This 26.5-kilowatt household photovoltaic power station has about 1240 hours of sunshine a year, and the on-grid electricity price is 0.40779 yuan/kWh, of which the state subsidy is 0.03 yuan/kWh. The annual electricity cost is estimated to be more than 13,000 yuan. Thousands of income.
The power station he installed does not take loans or invest money, but only provides roofs.
Financial companies lease equipment, and manufacturers are responsible for construction and operation and maintenance. After deducting the rent of financial companies and the operation and maintenance costs of manufacturers, the electricity fee of photovoltaic power stations is basically the income of farmers.
"I haven't settled the account yet. A villager in the village installed 16 kilowatts and received 1,620 yuan in half a year." Liu Guisheng told the CBN reporter.
In Liu Guisheng and his village, the installation of photovoltaic power plants is not a new thing. Photovoltaic heat also appeared a few years ago.
Wang Yuhai, a villager in the same village, used a loan model to build his family's photovoltaic power station five years ago, and is still in the process of repaying the loan.
In 2017, it was introduced that Wang Yuhai installed 40 solar panels on the roof of the second floor of his new house. He borrowed 92,000 yuan from Henan Rural Commercial Bank (formerly Credit Cooperative). The loan period is 10 years and no more than 11 years. Monthly loan repayment is 1050 yuan.
At that time, the state subsidies were high, and the on-grid electricity price of household photovoltaic power plants exceeded 0.8 yuan/kWh, and this electricity price is still maintained.
In summer, the sunshine time is long. Wang Yuhai’s monthly electricity bill income is about 1300~1400 yuan, and the monthly electricity bill income in spring is about 1200 yuan, which is enough to repay the monthly loan. In autumn and winter, the sunshine time is short, and the monthly electricity bill income is around 1000 yuan. When bad, the monthly electricity bill income is 800~900 yuan, which is not enough to repay the monthly loan.
"The company organized a 5,000 yuan fund, and the monthly insufficient loan repayment was made up by the fund."
Because it was introduced by the villager, Wang Yuhai didn't even know the name of the cooperative company. He basically didn't make any money from the power station every year. The picture shows the net income of the power station after the loan repayment period.
During the same period, about eight or nine households in the village built photovoltaic power plants with loans.
Later, there was no mention of it for a while. It seemed that there was a gap period. There were fewer companies doing photovoltaic power plant business. I heard that the policy was tightened and many companies closed down.
After Liu Guisheng's own home was installed, he developed more than a dozen villagers to install photovoltaic power stations this year.
Liu Guisheng’s newly installed photovoltaic power station does not need to find a bank loan. It has an income of about 1,000 yuan to 2,000 yuan a year, which is attractive to the villagers.
Liu Guisheng, who has been in the small business of home appliance distribution since 2007, is considering whether to switch to the household photovoltaic power plant business.
He said: "It seems like a gust of wind is coming, and the photovoltaic power station is heating up again."
"Competition has become fierce this year. Although the price of photovoltaic modules is rising, in the household market, due to the entry of central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and other emerging enterprises, they have seized roof resources in the form of renting roofs and co-construction, and the benefits to users are higher than in previous years. , Users will benefit even more. In 2019, a solar panel will be given 10 yuan/year, last year, a panel will be 20 yuan, and now a panel will be 35-40 yuan." Zhao Guonan, an agent of a photovoltaic company, predicts that China’s household photovoltaic power plants will be The market will continue to grow. With the government’s active promotion from top to bottom, “this year’s photovoltaic boom will continue next year.”
Once fanatical photovoltaic loan
In 2021, the state puts forward the goal of “achieving carbon peaks by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”. Companies such as Chint, Trina, Sunshine, Zhonglai, and Skyworth are actively developing household photovoltaic power plant business.
In the new wave of photovoltaic craze, almost no one uses the loan model, this is because a few years ago, the hurricane of "photovoltaic loans" was once "a chicken feather".
Financial institutions have frantically entered the chaos in the photovoltaic industry, such as the formation of bubbles and small-scale photovoltaic companies taking money off the road. They have damaged the interests of some people who want to use photovoltaic power stations to get rich. For example, electricity bills cannot cover loans at all.
A senior person in the photovoltaic industry introduced to a reporter from China Business News that from 2016 to 2018, relevant parties have implemented photovoltaic poverty alleviation policies across the country, on the one hand, to absorb excess capacity, and on the other hand, they hope that the use of photovoltaic power stations in various places will be more stable. The proceeds help local people generate income and get rid of poverty.
The advantage of photovoltaic power plants over other poverty alleviation projects is that the electricity generated by the power plants is contracted by the grid, so there is no need to worry about losing markets, and the photovoltaic power plant components can guarantee power generation for more than 25 years.
This was originally a good thing for the benefit of the country and the people, but with the increase of various favorable factors such as subsidies, it gave birth to chaos in the photovoltaic industry.
Take Zhejiang as an example. In 2016, Zhejiang Province put forward the "Million Roofs" plan, and the province gave a subsidy of 0.10 yuan per kilowatt-hour for household photovoltaics for a total of 20 years.
In 2017, the local desulfurized coal electricity price was 0.42 yuan/kWh, plus the national subsidy of 0.42 yuan/kWh and the provincial subsidy of 0.10 yuan/kWh, the photovoltaic power price could be as high as 0.94 yuan/kWh.
Calculated in this way, the static investment payback period of ordinary people can be controlled within 6 to 6 and a half years, and the investment in the power station can be paid back when it expires.
Favorable policies coupled with the support of photovoltaic loans from rural commercial banks in various regions have led to the emergence of many under-brand photovoltaic companies in the market.
In Fuyang County, Hangzhou, there were more than 100 photovoltaic brands "camping and camping", and product quality was mixed.
On May 31, 2018, the state stopped all photovoltaic subsidies, and almost all local small enterprises in Zhejiang shuffled, either going bankrupt or running away.
The direct consequences are still there. Today, many local users generally believe that photovoltaic is a liar, and the local household photovoltaic market in Zhejiang is still difficult to do.
In Shandong, some local small and micro banks such as local rural commercial banks and city commercial banks have introduced zero down payment loans to promote the free installation of photovoltaic power plants to the people in order to promote their businesses.
In fact, local small banks do not have the ability to control risk, nor do they understand the power generation capacity of photovoltaic power plants, so they are easily deceived by some miscellaneous companies.
In recent years, due to technological progress, the installed cost of photovoltaic power plants has fallen below 3 yuan per watt. However, in some places in Shandong, photovoltaic power plants are still sold for 4 to 5 yuan per watt. Users borrow from banks at this price to install photovoltaics. For the power station, the investment in the complete power station will be up to 30% higher than the market price.
A local bank in Shandong is still providing enterprises with a photovoltaic loan financial service of 5.2 yuan per watt for 12 years when the installed cost of photovoltaic systems is less than 3 yuan per watt.
Based on this calculation, the income of ordinary people's loans in 12 years is basically negative, but the company signs fixed-income contracts with ordinary people, making ordinary people mistakenly think it is a model of renting a roof.
Under this mode of operation, companies can obtain high profits from simply selling power station equipment. If a product of 3 yuan per watt is sold at 5.2 yuan per watt, every 20-kilowatt power station installed can earn nearly 44,000. Yuan.
These companies once made big profits. After the photovoltaic subsidies declined, problems occurred one after another, or went bankrupt or ran away, leaving users who installed photovoltaic power stations with large loans that could not be repaid, and bank loans became non-performing assets.
The photovoltaic industry is a green energy industry developed under the guidance of policies, but the steady development of an industry should not be sustained by state subsidies for a long time.
In the past 10 years, the installed cost of photovoltaic systems has fallen by more than 95%, state subsidies have quietly declined, and the photovoltaic industry is entering the era of parity.
In 2018, the "5·31" subsidy "shock" is basically to curb industry chaos and allow the household photovoltaic industry to operate sustainably.
From "renting a roof" to "financial leasing"
Chint Aneng, a subsidiary of Chint Electric (601877.SH), and Zhonglai Minsheng, a subsidiary of Zhonglai (300393.SZ), have begun to explore a new model, adopting the method of renting the roofs of the common people to build their own power stations, instead of letting the common people take loans, with the intention of starting from the source Reduce the risk of common people.
During the three years from 2019 to 2021, the roof-rental model was welcomed by the people because of no loans and fixed income, and it began to be quickly promoted in the market.
The possible problem with this model is that when ordinary people really "reap benefits from the sun," they may not take the initiative to assume responsibility for the custody and maintenance of the power station.
Some farmers even directly dry the solar panels on photovoltaic panels, causing the photovoltaic hot spot effect, and the risk of module conversion rate decline or module damage is passed on to the enterprise, which increases the difficulty and cost of enterprise operation and maintenance.
Some companies that have newly entered the industry have begun to adopt the financial leasing model.
Compared with the renting roof model, the financial leasing model can mobilize the enthusiasm of the householder and take care of their own roofs, which is conducive to the operation and maintenance of the enterprise, and the operation and maintenance of the power station can in turn protect the income of the people.
Zhao Guonan is a regional agent of a certain brand in Henan. Starting from October 2020, it has developed more than 2,000 households in more than a year.
He told CBN reporters that after April 2021, with the country’s policy of “achieving carbon peaks by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”, business has doubled.
From October last year to March this year, Zhao Guonan developed more than 200 households; since April this year, he has developed 2500 households, and has developed more than 2,800 households in two counties to install household photovoltaic power plants.
After the business doubled this year, take a county in Xinxiang, Henan Province as an example. In the household photovoltaic power station market, the financial leasing model accounted for the majority, the user full payment model accounted for 10%, and the user loan model was scarce.
Because compared with other models, the financial leasing model provides relatively higher benefits to the common people when farmers do not need to pay or repay loans.
However, as the competition among photovoltaic companies intensified, in order to compete for users, the revenue promises of other competitors to the common people have also increased.
Liu Guisheng said that the brand that used to rent roofs came to the village to talk to the villagers. In the past, a (solar) panel was given to the user at 20 yuan per year, and the cooperation period was 15 years. After 15 years, the photovoltaic power station will be returned to the user.
Now, in order to make an enclosure, the brand hopes to extend the cooperation period to 25 years. For the first 10 years, one board will be given 45 yuan per year, and for the next 15 years, one board will be given 30 yuan per year. After 25 years, the property rights of photovoltaic power plants and all the profits will go to users.
Another company has a cooperation period of 13 years. After 13 years, the property rights and profits of the photovoltaic power station belong to the user, but the user has to pay a down payment of 100 yuan per board. For example, Liu Guisheng installs 61 boards, and the down payment will be 6,100 yuan.
After comparison, he chose the third brand, no need to pay, no loan, 15 years of cooperation period of financial leasing model, because compared with the model of 25 years of cooperation, he can get ten years of property rights income.
However, most villagers are still conservative and wait-and-see about installing photovoltaic power plants at home.
Master Niu, whose hometown is Rengu Town, Tangyin County, Anyang City, Henan Province, currently drives a taxi in Guangzhou, earning 8,000 to 9,000 yuan a month. His son also drives a taxi in Guangzhou, and his wife and grandson are in his hometown.
His three-story house in the village has a roof of 200 square meters. Many relatives and friends persuaded him to install a photovoltaic power station. His neighbors invested more than 100,000 to install it, but he still did not install it.
He told a reporter from China Business News that 40 solar panels can be installed in his home, which would cost an extra 3,000 yuan a month. However, he is still worried about water leakage and radiation.
Zhao Guonan said that these issues that the villagers are concerned about, especially the financial leasing model, need to be explained patiently to eliminate their worries. I believe that with the strengthening of policy publicity, users will become more and more accepting.
"Customers, surveys, drawings, construction, and acceptance must all be posted in APP photos and videos. All photovoltaic companies are now almost online for acceptance, and the quality of power plants is more in place than before."
New forces under the "county-wide advancement"
In today's photovoltaic market, a new force has attracted more and more people's attention.
Beginning in the second half of this year, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have begun to accelerate the acquisition of household photovoltaic assets, and some large private photovoltaic companies have also begun to transform to asset-light platforms and strengthen operation and maintenance.
From the second half of this year, Chint Electric began to transfer part of the property rights of household photovoltaic business to the holding subsidiary of State Power Investment.
On September 23, Chint Electric announced that it intends to sell some household photovoltaic power generation system assets. By the date of the 2021 annual general meeting of shareholders, the total installed capacity will not exceed 3000 MW, which is in line with the company’s “asset-light, platform-oriented, and service-oriented” strategy. Strategic Transformation.
On September 28, Chint Aneng transferred its 488.61 MW household photovoltaic power generation system assets in Henan and Shanxi to Power Investment Aneng Shaanxi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (held by State Power Investment Group Henan Electric Power Co., Ltd.) Wenzhou Taiji New Energy Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of CHINT Anneng, holds an 18% share).
On November 16, Chint Aneng transferred its 493.13 MW household photovoltaic power generation system assets in Shandong, Hebei, and Shanxi to Chongqing Yutai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (by the State Power Investment Corporation Chongqing Electric Power Co., Ltd.) The company holds 81% of the shares, and Wenzhou Taiji New Energy Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Chint Aneng, holds 19% of the shares).
The considerations for these two transactions are 1.83 billion yuan and 1.972 billion yuan respectively, which will increase the net profit of Chint Aneng by approximately 176 million yuan and 182 million yuan respectively in 2021.
After the transaction, Chint Aneng will continue to provide operation and maintenance services in the future.
SPIC has conducted 12 photovoltaic power plant transactions this year, with a total acquisition scale of 2875.34 MW and a total transaction value of more than 8.014 billion yuan. Among them, SPIC acquired GCL New Energy (00451.HK) 713.15 MW photovoltaics for 669 million yuan this year. Power station.
"The photovoltaic industry has a long investment cycle, low rate of return, low financing costs for central enterprises, and the acquisition of photovoltaic power plants to increase the demand for'green power' assets, so this year there is a rapid expansion of central enterprises in the household photovoltaic market." The above-mentioned photovoltaic industry agent Shang believes that asset-light operation of private photovoltaic companies is an industry trend.
Linyang Energy also signed an investment cooperation framework agreement with Huaneng Jiangsu, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Huaneng Energy, on September 27. It intends to transfer 90% of the equity of the 600 MW photovoltaic power plant asset project to ensure that the project transfer volume is not less than 267.23 MW before the end of 2021. , Linyang Energy retains 10% of the project assets and will give priority to operation and maintenance in the future.
While privately-owned photovoltaic companies withdraw funds, they also leverage the resources of central enterprises to accelerate the expansion of projects promoted throughout the county.
On September 24, Chint Electric announced that Chint Aneng signed a cooperation framework agreement with relevant government departments in many places to promote the development of the entire county’s rooftop distributed photovoltaic development pilot work to jointly promote the development of residential rooftop photovoltaic distributed photovoltaic power station projects, involving contracted installations The total capacity is approximately 1556.7 megawatts.
In the next three years, the entire town and village will be concentrated on the development and construction of distributed photovoltaic power stations, and new installed capacity will be increased in Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Shanxi and other places.
Linyang Energy also announced previously that it has signed agreements with the governments of Weifang High-tech Zone, Pingquan City, and Yiliang County to focus on the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects throughout the county. The estimated installed capacity is about 670 MW, 100 MW, and 200 MW. watt.
The Yangtze River Securities research report believes that the core change in the county-wide promotion model lies in the role of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises as investors after joining, and accelerating the transformation of private enterprises to light assets.
Private enterprises can sell self-owned power stations to central enterprises and state-owned enterprises to earn the price difference, and continue to earn operation and maintenance costs thereafter.
Regarding the cooperative development model of private enterprises, central enterprises, and state-owned enterprises, private enterprises take advantage of project development and combine the capital cost and resource advantages of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises to establish project companies. The common situation is that central enterprises and state-owned enterprises hold 90% of the shares and private enterprises hold 10% of the shares.
On December 10, at the Fifth Distributed Photovoltaic Carnival, some private photovoltaic companies stated that since the National Energy Administration issued relevant policies to promote pilot projects throughout the county in June 2021, resource monopoly companies represented by central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have successively Focusing on the entire county to promote projects, the phenomenon of "horse racing and enclosure" occurs frequently.
Some people are worried that the "county-wide advancement" project will be monopolized by central enterprises and state-owned enterprises.
On July 9 this year, the National Energy Administration published an article "Questions on the Policy for the Promotion of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Stations in the County". Monopoly, work is not suspended.
Despite the chaos, the prospects of the household photovoltaic industry are still promising.
Data show that China’s urbanization rate has reached about 65%. Even if it reaches 80% in the future, there will still be 280 million people living in rural areas; at a penetration rate of 20%, household photovoltaic installations will reach 56 million households.
In 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of household photovoltaic power plants in China is close to 1.5 million. This year, it is estimated that there will be more than 1 million installed capacity, with a cumulative installed capacity of 2 to 3 million households. However, relative to the market potential of 56 million households, the proportion is still small.
It is estimated that in the next 5 to 8 years, the potential of China's household photovoltaic market can still be tapped.
Future competition will focus on product quality and service.
Author: Wang Zhen