China News Service, December 15th. National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Fu Linghui said on the 15th that despite multiple pressures, the fundamentals of my country's long-term improvement have not changed.
From the perspective of next year's development, there is still good support for overcoming difficult challenges and maintaining stable economic operations.
Data map: Production scene in a company.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo
The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 15th to introduce the operation of the national economy in November.
At the meeting, a reporter asked: After the macro data is released in November, what is the current forecast of the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter and the whole year?
Is the annual economic growth rate expected to reach about 8%?
There are currently analysts predicting that China’s economic growth target in 2022 may be set at over 5% or around 5.5%. How does the Bureau of Statistics view this?
In this regard, Fu Linghui said that at present, the international environment is becoming more complex and severe, the recovery of the world economy has slowed, rising inflationary pressures are intertwined with the spread of the epidemic, and my country's economy is also facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. .
However, the fundamentals of my country's economic resilience and long-term improvement will not change.
With the intensification of macroeconomic policy adjustments, the policy of ensuring supply, stabilizing prices, and helping companies to relieve difficulties, since the fourth quarter, industrial production has continued to accelerate, industrial product prices have fallen, foreign trade and foreign investment have grown rapidly, and employment prices have generally stabilized. High-quality development continues to yield results.
Looking at the whole year, my country's economy is expected to recover steadily, with major indicators remaining within a reasonable range.
First, the trend of stable economic operation continues.
The GDP maintained rapid growth.
In the first three quarters, my country's economy grew by 9.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.2%.
According to estimates from major international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the annual growth rate is expected to reach about 8%, which is significantly higher than that of major economies. The characteristics of strong development resilience, great potential, and sufficient motivation are obvious.
The employment situation remains stable.
From January to November, the number of new jobs in cities and towns across the country reached 12.07 million, exceeding the expected target for the whole year.
In November, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5%, which was 0.2 percentage point lower than the same period last year and 0.1 percentage point lower than the same period in 2019.
Consumer price increases are generally moderate.
From January to November, consumer prices rose by 0.9% year-on-year, and the overall increase was lower than the expected target for the year.
After deducting food and energy, the core CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year and remained basically stable.
The balance of payments remained balanced.
From January to November, my country's surplus in imports and exports of goods increased by 20.1% year-on-year.
At the end of November, foreign exchange reserves continued to stabilize at more than US$3.2 trillion, and the balance of payments improved overall.
The second is to continuously consolidate the foundation for industrial development.
The agricultural foundation has been consolidated.
The annual grain output reached a new high, stabilizing at more than 1.3 trillion catties for seven consecutive years, laying a solid foundation for sustained and healthy economic development.
The manufacturing industry has been strengthened.
In the first three quarters, the value added of the manufacturing industry accounted for 27.4% of GDP, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year.
From January to October, the added value of manufacturing above designated size increased by 10.4% year-on-year, faster than all industries above designated size.
Manufacturing investment increased by 13.7%, an average growth rate of 4.3% in two years, 0.5 percentage points faster than that from January to October.
The resilience of the industrial chain has been improved.
From January to November, the production of metal containers and integrated circuits, which are in short supply in the market, has maintained rapid growth. The core shortage in the automotive industry has also eased. The decline in automotive production has narrowed for three consecutive months. Achieved positive results.
Third, the vitality of the driving force for economic development has increased.
Increase in market players.
The reform of decentralization, regulation and service continued to deepen, the business environment continued to improve, and the market entities remained active at a relatively high level.
Multi-ownership economies develop together. From January to November, the value added of joint-stock and private enterprises in industries above designated size increased by 10.4% and 10.9% year-on-year respectively, maintaining rapid growth; imports and exports of private enterprises increased by 27.8% year-on-year, accounting for total imports and exports The proportion of the company reached 48.5%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year.
Foreign investment in foreign trade increased rapidly. From January to November, the total value of imports and exports of goods increased by 22% year-on-year; from January to October, the actual use of foreign capital increased by 17.8% year-on-year, of which the actual use of foreign capital in high-tech industries and service industries increased by 23.7% and 20.3% respectively .
In addition, my country's major scientific and technological achievements continue to emerge.
Good news in the fields of manned aerospace, quantum computing, etc. are frequent, 5G commercial construction is progressing steadily, and the role of new inventions and technologies in driving the economy continues to increase.
Fu Linghui said that the above situation shows that my country's economic stability and development support is strong. With the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and the solid progress of economic and social development, and the effective implementation of macro policy adjustments, the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year are expected to be better achieved.
He further pointed out that despite the multiple pressures, my country's long-term positive fundamentals have not changed.
From the perspective of next year's development, there is still good support for overcoming difficult challenges and maintaining stable economic operations.
First, domestic demand is expected to increase.
Residents’ income has grown steadily, and the employment situation is generally stable, which is conducive to improving residents’ spending power and willingness to consume.
As long as the epidemic is well prevented and controlled, there is still much to be done for consumption development next year.
Major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been started one after another, and the construction of the "two new and one heavy" infrastructure is progressing steadily, which is conducive to enhancing the driving effect of effective investment.
The second is the positive trend of innovation-driven development.
The development of technological innovation is accelerating, the 5G industry is accelerating the layout, the digital economy, life and health, new materials and other strategic emerging industries are growing rapidly, and the innovation investment in key components, core components and other short-board areas has been increasing, and a series of results have been achieved .
In 2021, my country's global ranking of innovation index will rise to the 12th place in the world, rising for 9 consecutive years.
The third is the coordinated advancement of urban and rural regional development.
New-type urbanization and rural revitalization strategies have been steadily advanced, and the urban-rural gap has continued to narrow.
In the first three quarters of this year, the ratio of disposable income of urban and rural residents was 2.62, a decrease of 0.05 from the same period last year.
Regional coordinated development strategies and major regional strategies have been implemented steadily, and their leading role has been further strengthened.
Fourth, the dividends of reform and opening up continued to be released.
The reform of decentralization, management and service and the optimization of the market environment continue to show results, the market-oriented reform of factors has been steadily promoted, the establishment of a high-level opening to the outside world has been accelerated, the vitality of market entities has been effectively stimulated, and the driving force for development vitality has increased.
Fifth, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern.
The advantages of the ultra-large-scale market and a complete industrial system have further emerged, the main role of the economic internal cycle has been continuously enhanced, the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" has been solidly promoted, and the development pattern of domestic and international double cycles has accelerated.