Chinanews client, Beijing, December 15 (Zuo Yukun) The cooling of the property market continues.
On December 15, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in November, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline from the previous month, and the year-on-year increase continued to fall.
Towards the end of the year, should consumers who plan to buy a house make a move?
Data map: real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Prices of new houses in 59 cities in 70 cities fell month-on-month
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities remained flat month-on-month; the price of new houses in second-tier cities fell 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline was 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month; the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities fell 0.3% month-on-month. The drop was the same as last month.
In terms of the number of cities, 59 cities saw a month-on-month decline in new house prices in November.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that this is the largest number of cities where new house prices have fallen since March 2015.
"This fully shows that the current pressure on housing companies is relatively high, making house prices generally fall."
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, explained that on the one hand, the current market transaction enthusiasm is still at the bottom of the adjustment period, and the buyer has a strong voice; on the other hand, some banks have released mortgage loan lines near the end of the year, and the demand for house purchases has been active. Recovery, in this context, the supply side lowered the price in order to sell the houses as soon as possible before the end of the year.
In November 2021, the sales price index of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
In terms of cities, the price of new homes in first-tier cities rose 0.3% and 0.2% month-on-month in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively, while Guangzhou fell 0.6% and Shenzhen remained flat.
"The quarter-on-quarter rise in Beijing and Shanghai is not due to the increase in market enthusiasm, but is directly related to the supply structure. In the fourth and fifth batches of centralized supply of new houses in Shanghai, the proportion of projects in the city center was significantly higher than that in the first half of the year, which led to In the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, the prices of new houses were “raised”.” explained Zhang Bo, director of the branch of 58 Anju Guest House Research Institute.
Second-hand house prices fall more than new houses
The November data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing in second-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline was 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month. ; The sales price of second-hand housing in third-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline was 0.1% larger than the previous month.
"Second-hand housing continues to show a downward trend, and the decline has shown an expanding trend. At present, the decline in second-hand housing is greater than that of first-hand housing." Yan Yuejin believes that, especially when credit policies are loosened, first-hand housing tends to have greater advantages. , The external environment of second-hand housing itself is not good now, landlords and buyers are showing a wait-and-see mood.
The sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November 2021.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
Zhang Bo also believes that this month's second-hand housing decline has been more comprehensive, and it is also a month in which the property market has fallen more significantly this year.
Especially in the second and third tier cities, there are obvious signs of acceleration in cooling, especially in North China and Northeast cities such as Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Harbin, and Changchun.
"This is also an important reason why such cities have frequently issued policies to boost the property market recently. However, these cities' policies are mostly point-shaped exploratory policies in the near future, which will slow down the downward trend to a certain extent, and it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend of the market. It is expected in the later period. Policies in some cities will be introduced to further boost market confidence and stabilize the market.” Zhang Bo said.
Yan Yuejin also pointed out that it is necessary to focus on the cooling risks of the second-hand housing market.
"Poor second-hand housing transactions will affect the housing replacement problem of second-hand landlords, which will lead to the housing replacement of first-hand housing. Therefore, subsequent attention to the second-hand housing market needs to be increased, including bank credit and financial services for second-hand housing replacement. "
In the overall cooling trend, in November, the decline in second-hand housing prices in a few large and medium-sized cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing narrowed first.
Xu Xiaole believes that the housing market in large and medium-sized cities has a high replacement ratio. The improvement in the credit environment in October and November prompted the flow of the housing exchange chain. The market transaction volume showed signs of bottoming, and market expectations improved, which led to a narrowing of the decline in housing prices.
Data map: residential area under construction.
(Drone shooting) Photo by China News Agency reporter Lu Ming
When will the cooling last?
“Once the housing price index falls, it is generally difficult to turn positive in the short term, even if the housing loan policy tends to be loose. From the operational logic of real estate prices, the current supply scale is relatively large and the market demand is relatively small.” Yan Yuejin believes that housing prices must be stabilized. , The key is to speed up the destocking of inventory while activating reasonable housing consumer demand.
Zhang Bo said that the degree of price cuts in the real estate market is obvious, which also indicates that the market is gradually approaching the bottom, and the space for policy contraction has narrowed. Relaxation policies in some cities and regions will continue to emerge to promote the steady development of real estate.
Relatively speaking, the fluctuation range of the property market cooling in first-tier cities is relatively narrow, and it is expected that the market will rise slightly earlier next year.
According to the basic law of "quantity comes first", data from the Shell Research Institute shows that the second-hand housing transaction volume of Shell 50 City continued to rebound from October to November, and signs of market bottoming appeared.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers” and “implement policies based on the city to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry”.
Xu Xiaole believes that the housing credit environment will further improve in the later period, because some cities may introduce supportive policies for first homes and improved housing under the city's policy, which will accelerate the bottoming of market transactions and reduce the pressure on housing prices.
Zhang Bo predicts that "the market will still maintain a cooling trend before the Spring Festival, but the rate of cooling is expected to gradually narrow." (End)