(Economic Observation) "Monthly Test" reflects the triple pressure. Can China's economy achieve its annual goal?

　　China News Service, Beijing, December 15 (Reporter Wang Enbo) On the 15th, Chinese officials announced the performance of the national economy in November.

The triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations mentioned by the Central Economic Work Conference are reflected in this "monthly examination" report card.

In the face of challenges, can China complete the main goals of economic and social development for the year?

　　Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said bluntly that the statistical data clearly reflects the above-mentioned triple pressure and the downward pressure on the economy.

　　From the perspective of demand, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s total retail sales of consumer goods has fallen from the double-digit growth at the beginning of the year to single digits. The two-year average growth rate has also fallen from 6.3% in March to 1.5% in August. Although the month has improved, it is still at a relatively low level.

Investment growth has also shown a similar downward trend, reflecting changes in demand contraction.

　　From the perspective of supply, international commodity prices have risen, some of China’s energy and metal supplies are tight, and some industries such as automobiles have a significant impact on core shortages. The year-on-year increase in PPI has expanded from 0.3% in January to 13.5% in October, and the increase in November. Although it has fallen back, it is still at a relatively high level.

　　From the perspective of expectations, China's manufacturing PMI has continued to fall since April, and fell to a contraction range in September and October. Among them, the small business manufacturing PMI has been in a contraction range for 7 consecutive months.

The business activity index of the service industry fluctuated greatly due to the impact of the epidemic, and generally showed a downward trend.

　　However, in the face of the above-mentioned challenges, the Chinese economy has still withstood the pressure and maintained a recovery trend, and the real economy has been more stable and rising.

This is also reflected in the latest November data.

　　Excluding some short-term disturbances and lengthening the "time line", the main indicators of China's economy are all within a reasonable range.

From January to November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.1% year-on-year, the service industry production index increased by 14%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.7%, and the total import and export of goods increased by 22%, all maintaining rapid growth.

　　The continuous strengthening of the industrial manufacturing industry will support the consolidation and growth of the real economy.

In November, with the vigorous advancement of policy measures such as ensuring supply, stabilizing prices and helping companies to relieve difficulties, the value added of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.8% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the previous month, and accelerated for two consecutive months.

Among them, the manufacturing industry, driven by the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry, has rebounded faster than the mining industry, electricity, heat and gas, and water production and supply industries.

　　Maintaining supply and stabilizing prices is effective, which also increases the supply of products that are in short supply in the market.

In November, China's raw coal production increased by 4.6% year-on-year, 0.6% faster than the previous month; the ex-factory price of coal mining and washing industry fell by 4.9% month-on-month.

The core shortage in the auto industry has eased. In November, auto production fell by 7.1% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

　　After handing in the November report card in a steady manner, it also means that China's economic performance for the whole year is about to be announced.

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that from the current data, China's domestic production has improved, but demand is still weak, and the policy of stabilizing growth is expected to accelerate.

The Central Bank of China’s 0.5 percentage point reduction in the RRR was implemented. In addition to the previous introduction of carbon emission reduction support tools, it has lowered the interest rate of refinancing support for agriculture and small businesses, and increased its support for stable growth. It is expected that this year’s economic growth target can be achieved, but the economy cannot be ignored. There is new downward pressure.

　　While emphasizing that the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year are expected to be better achieved, Fu Linghui also pointed out that from the perspective of next year's development, there is still a good support for overcoming difficult challenges and maintaining stable economic operations.

　　He mentioned that China's economic domestic demand is expected to increase.

Residents’ income is growing steadily and the employment situation is generally stable, which is conducive to improving residents’ spending power and willingness to consume. As long as the epidemic is well prevented and controlled, consumption development next year is still promising.

Major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been started one after another, and the construction of the "two new and one heavy" infrastructure is progressing steadily, which is conducive to enhancing the driving effect of effective investment.

　　Regarding future policy trends, Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that the Chinese government will increase the autonomy of macro-policies and require policies to focus on assessing the overall situation from a mid- to long-term perspective, and to be more forward-looking and preventive.

It is expected that in 2022, the authorities will introduce supporting macro and structural policies to promote economic growth to the trend level.

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