The annual Central Economic Work Conference was held a few days ago, which pointed out the direction for next year's economic work.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other departments have intensively deployed and implemented vigorously, focusing on promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, ensuring energy supply, and stabilizing the industrial chain and supply chain, and put forward specific measures on the tasks specified by the Central Economic Work Conference.
On December 14, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Plan on Revitalizing the Operation of Industrial Economy and Promoting High-quality Industrial Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), from unblocking circulation, expanding space, strengthening policies, and optimizing the environment. 16 hard moves were introduced in 4 areas.
Many experts analyzed and believed that three aspects, namely, tapping domestic consumer demand, promoting the implementation of major projects and ensuring the safety and stability of the industrial chain, are worthy of attention.
It is expected that a new round of consumption promotion policies for green home appliances and new energy vehicles will be launched on a large scale at the end of this year and early next year. The reform of consumption tax and digital tax under the goal of "common prosperity" is expected to accelerate.
In addition, future energy infrastructure transformation and other aspects will increase investment to lay a good foundation for high-quality development.
Tap the potential of domestic demand
The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned that my country’s economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations.
Insufficient demand is an important reason why the current economic recovery is weaker than expected.
The National Development and Reform Work Conference was held in Beijing on the 11th to deploy key tasks for development and reform in 2022.
The National Development and Reform Commission made it clear that the deepening of supply-side structural reforms and the expansion of domestic demand should be more organically combined, and greater efforts should be made to improve the quality of the supply system and smooth the economic cycle, in-depth implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, and promote high-level scientific and technological self-reliance, and resolutely get through Various "stuck points" and "blocking points" promote the formation of a strong domestic market.
Judging from the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, my country’s consumption recovery continued to show resilience. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5% faster than the previous month, and rebounded for two consecutive months.
However, there is still a gap in consumption growth compared to before the epidemic.
Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, told CBN reporters that, first of all, consumption may continue to be weakly repaired in the trend, and the epidemic is still the biggest disturbance.
Second, issues such as the continuous rise in commodity prices, the maintenance of high international logistics costs, and the shortage of chips continue to push up corporate costs, resulting in continued squeezing of the profit margins of mid- and downstream small, medium and micro enterprises.
Third, it is more difficult for low-income groups to increase their income.
These three factors determine that the overall rebound in consumption is limited.
On the 11th, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at the China Annual Economic Conference that the potential of domestic demand must be fully tapped in 2022.
Efforts should be made to expand consumer demand, consolidate and expand basic consumption and upgraded consumption.
It is necessary to integrate commodity consumption and service consumption, and implement relevant measures to boost large-scale consumption such as automobiles and home appliances.
Expand new types of consumption such as information consumption and green consumption, promote the integrated development of online and offline, and accelerate the integration of the county’s rural e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system.
The "Plan" issued by the above two departments also clarified the release of consumption potential in key areas.
The "Plan" pointed out that the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be accelerated, and the construction of supporting facilities such as charging piles and power stations will be accelerated.
Improve the home appliance recycling system and implement a recycling target responsibility system for home appliance producers.
Encourage places where conditions permit to launch a new round of trade-in actions in home appliances and other fields.
Encourage the development of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and green building materials to the countryside.
In addition, the "Plan" also mentioned that the promotion of ultra-high-definition video for major scenes such as the Beijing Winter Olympics broadcast.
Promote the digital transformation of the supply chain and operation management of traditional offline business formats, and develop new information consumption.
Intensify online and offline integration, expand consumption of independent brands and online new types of consumption, promote the innovative development of time-honored brands, and organize high-level Chinese brand day activities.
Yu Xiaohui, president of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, said that the digital economy is the main engine for expanding effective demand.
Information consumption is a fast-growing new consumption, and it has widely penetrated into the people's clothing, food, housing, transportation and other aspects, and continues to expand new growth space.
According to estimates, the scale of my country's information consumption will reach 5.8 trillion yuan in 2020, accounting for more than 10% of final consumption for the first time.
Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and chief macro analyst of Yuekai Securities Research Institute, told CBN reporters that it is expected that a new round of consumer promotion policies will be launched at the end of this year and early next year, mainly targeting green home appliances, new energy vehicles and other categories. , In the form of issuing consumer vouchers, encouraging consumption on e-commerce and live broadcast platforms, and going to the countryside by cars.
Under the goal of "common prosperity", the reform of consumption tax and digital tax is expected to accelerate, and reforms such as education and medical care will continue to deepen, which may effectively expand the middle-income group and release the consumption potential.
Promote the implementation of major projects and take effect
In terms of actively expanding effective investment, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will steadily advance the construction of 102 major engineering projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan", carry out infrastructure investment appropriately in advance, give play to the guiding role of government investment, and encourage and guide private capital to participate in transportation, logistics, and the ecological environment. , Social undertakings and other short-board projects.
The "Plan" further pointed out that promoting the implementation of major projects is effective.
Accelerate the implementation of major projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan, major regional strategic plans and clear annual work arrangements, promote the implementation of major projects with conditions, start construction as soon as possible, and speed up the construction progress of projects under construction to strive for an early date Completed and put into production.
Deploy a batch of new infrastructure projects in 5G, gigabit optical network and other fields.
As soon as possible, start the construction of the integrated big data center hub node and the improvement of the basic network of small and medium-sized cities in the central and western regions.
Give full play to the role of special classes for major national and local foreign investment projects, and accelerate the implementation of major foreign investment projects in advanced manufacturing and other fields.
In recent years, my country's investment demand for new infrastructure construction such as 5G and gigabit networks has grown rapidly.
According to calculations by the my country Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the total investment in new infrastructure construction by the Chinese government and the private sector will reach 10.6 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2025, accounting for about 10% of China's social infrastructure investment.
This year's Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that infrastructure investment should be carried out appropriately in advance.
Feng Qiaobin, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Institute of Finance, said that infrastructure investment will focus on the two main lines of digital transformation and green development transformation, especially in terms of green development transformation.
In the future, energy infrastructure transformation and other aspects will increase investment to lay a good foundation for high-quality development.
Luo Zhiheng told China Business News that stable investment will become the focus of work at present and for a period of time in the future. It will not only hedge the downward pressure on the economy, but will also play the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure.
Multiple measures must be taken to expand effective investment.
Accelerate the implementation of the investment plan within the central budget that has been issued, make preparations for special debt projects, ensure that the special debt is put into use in a timely manner after the issuance, and form a physical workload as soon as possible.
Actively support investment in strategic emerging industries, and guide enterprises to accelerate investment in equipment renewal and technological transformation.
Stable investment policies require financial support.
The Ministry of Finance held a party group meeting on December 10 and emphasized that it should coordinate financial resources, ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditures, speed up the progress of expenditures, implement the performance evaluation of fiscal funds throughout the process, and strengthen coordination with monetary policy to ensure that macroeconomic policies are stable and effective.
Ensuring the safety and stability of energy and industrial chain
Since the second half of 2021, the lack of coal and electricity has affected the operation of the domestic economy. The epidemic and changes in the international situation have also highlighted the security issues of the industrial chain and supply chain.
The Central Economic Work Conference requires "a correct understanding and grasp of the supply of primary products."
The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized the need to do a good job in the security and stability of energy, food, and industrial supply chains.
In terms of energy security, give full play to the role of the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for coal, electricity, oil, and gas transportation to ensure the supply of coal, electricity, and natural gas.
Promote the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure in an orderly manner, and actively promote the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, and continue to play the role of traditional energy, especially coal and coal power, in peak regulation and bottom-line guaranteeing.
The "Plan" mentioned that solidly promoting energy security and supply.
Improve the policies related to the dual control of energy consumption, strictly control the intensity of energy consumption, and take multiple measures to effectively enhance the flexibility of total energy consumption management to ensure the rational use of energy for industrial development.
Severely crack down on all kinds of illegal acts such as spreading false information, driving up prices, and capital disorderly speculation.
Primary products are the most fundamental part of the entire economy and are a strategic issue that concerns the overall situation.
Wu Chaoming told China Business News that my country’s imports of soybeans, oil, natural gas, iron ore, copper ore and other primary products accounted for more than 40% of the country’s imports in 2020, and its dependence on foreign sources is high.
At present, my country’s external environmental uncertainties have significantly increased, the stability of the global supply chain has been weakened under the impact of the epidemic, and the risk of primary product supply gaps has intensified. We should accelerate the promotion of seed industry revitalization and energy revolution, and strengthen the self-supply of basic primary products such as food and energy. Guarantee capacity.
In terms of ensuring the safety and stability of the industrial chain and supply chain, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized that efforts should be made to eliminate the prominent bottleneck constraints of the industrial chain and improve the independent controllability of the industrial chain supply chain.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held an enlarged meeting of the party group on the 13th and also mentioned that it is necessary to highlight the steady growth of the industry, focus on the difficulties and blockages that restrict the industrial economic cycle and the smooth flow of the industrial chain, and pay more attention to fine policy design and coordination.
Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, wrote an analysis that in the process of epidemic prevention and control and response to complex external environmental changes, the key to improving the resilience of the supply chain is to rely on the grassroots resilience and vigorous vitality of market players.
As the construction of a high-standard market system continues, it is necessary to further promote the high-quality development of market entities, effectively control risks by reducing costs and increasing efficiency to enhance competitiveness, and actively increase investment in scientific and technological innovation to enhance endogenous new kinetic energy, and through transformation Upgrade calmly to deal with external shocks.
Author: Zhu Yanran