Coal problem investigation
Newspaper Research Group
The editor pointed out at the Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago that it is necessary to establish the basic national conditions that coal is the mainstay, grasp the clean and efficient use of coal, increase the capacity of new energy consumption, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
This has pointed out the direction for the long-term and healthy development of my country's coal industry.
The research team of this newspaper conducted in-depth investigations and interviews on some of the current problems in the coal market, in order to better promote the high-quality development of the coal industry.
No one thought that a game of energy supply and demand would make coal the focus of public opinion again.
In one year, the price of coal at the top of the coal mine went from five to six hundred yuan per ton to the 3,000 yuan mark.
Not only did coal prices go on a "roller coaster", some power supply companies even "interrupted", and power cuts occurred in a few areas, which seriously affected production and life.
Although a number of supply guarantee policies issued by relevant departments have achieved phased success, the problems exposed by them have not yet been fundamentally resolved.
Under the "dual carbon" goal, how to prevent coal-rich China from recurring "coal shortage"?
On the premise of respecting the laws of the industry and following the logic of the market, how to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the coal industry?
Although the market has returned to calm, there are still many issues to be considered.
The price of coal was once "wild horse running off"
In the past two months or so, under the strong intervention of relevant departments, the price of thermal coal has continued to fall from the highest point in history, and the domestic coal market with "high fever" has also cooled down and stabilized.
As of the end of November, coal storage in power plants across the country has exceeded the same period last year and reached the highest level in history.
This means that there is no danger of coal shortage for power generation and heating this winter and next spring.
Coal price fluctuations and the consequences caused by them have attracted the attention of the whole society for a period of time.
In September, in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other major coal producing areas, heavy truck convoys lined up to transport coal can be seen.
Local people said that the last time this scene appeared was almost 10 years ago.
Behind the drivers' race against time to pull coal is the reality that coal prices have risen several days or even several times a day.
Since the third quarter, coal prices, especially thermal coal prices, have entered a continuous rise. The pithead price is only one step away from 2,000 yuan/ton, while the port's 5,500 kcal thermal coal price has soared to 2,600 yuan/ton.
The price of coal was once a wild horse.
In an interview, Tang Baoguo, member of the Standing Committee of the Party Committee and deputy general manager of China Coal, said frankly that he has been engaged in coal sales for so many years, and this is the first time he has encountered such a "crazy" coal market, which exposed the industry's underestimation of the coal supply and demand situation.
Entering October, the northern region has entered the heating season one after another, and thermal coal prices have shown a further irrational upward trend, and have repeatedly broken historical highs.
On October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission said, "We will make full use of all necessary means stipulated by the price law to study collective measures to intervene in coal prices and promote coal prices to return to a reasonable range."
That night, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a series of three articles, including "National Development and Reform Commission Research on the Implementation of Intervention Measures on Coal Prices According to Law", which triggered market turbulence. The prices of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke futures fell sharply, and the prices of coal futures changed in the next few days. It is a continuous fall.
The malicious speculation of capital is considered to be one of the main reasons for this round of irrational rise in coal prices or even a complete departure from the fundamentals of supply and demand.
The management clearly released the signal to strengthen supervision in accordance with the law and severely investigate and punish the malicious speculation of thermal coal futures by capital.
A battle to insure the price of coal and stabilize the supply has begun.
Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia, which have long been among the top three coal-producing provinces in the country in terms of output, took the lead in launching the response mechanism, and the relevant central enterprises have shouldered the responsibility of ensuring the country's energy security and stable supply.
Under a series of combinations, the tight coal supply and demand situation has been effectively alleviated, and coal prices have gradually fallen to a relatively reasonable level.
However, experts pointed out that the current situation does not mean that the plight of coal power has been completely lifted.
In the event of extreme cold weather and other special circumstances, coal supply may return to a tight state, and whether the subsequent trend of coal prices can operate reasonably will still depend on whether the fundamentals of supply and demand are stable.
Why is coal so "crazy"
There is certainty in accident.
For a long time, the development of the coal industry has been spiraling forward with great ups and downs. The most direct reason is the mismatch between supply and demand.
Before 1993, my country's coal industry was dominated by a planned economy. Coal was priced by the government, and the price had been lower than its value for a long time. Coal companies could only maintain production by relying on government subsidies.
Since then, the state has opened up guidance prices for other coal types except for electricity coal, and the coal industry has entered a period of rapid development.
In 1997, affected by the Asian financial crisis and changes in the domestic and foreign markets, the coal market severely exceeded demand, and coal prices fell sharply. This round of dividends came to an abrupt end.
In 2002, the state liberalized the price guide for thermal coal, and the coal industry was thoroughly market-oriented.
With the rapid economic growth, the demand for coal has risen, and the output and price have increased rapidly.
The price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port rose from 275 yuan per ton in 2002 to 853 yuan per ton in 2011.
Pan Wei, director of the Market and Power Reform Research Department of Huaneng Group’s Energy Research Institute and a postdoctoral fellow, told reporters that the first time coal prices broke through the 1,000 yuan mark was in 2008, when the global economy was overheating before the outbreak of the international financial crisis. In addition, factors such as rain, snow and freezing weather have contributed to a surge in coal prices.
The contradiction between coal supply and demand this year has many similarities with the previous year.
By 2012, under the influence of various factors such as the economic environment and the relationship between supply and demand, the coal industry will bid farewell to the "Golden Decade" and the price will turn downward.
In particular, the global coal market demand has continued to shrink.
The optimization of the international energy structure has accelerated, and the reduction of fossil energy consumption has become a major trend.
Domestically, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, environmental constraints have increased, the task of energy conservation and emission reduction has been arduous, the output of high-energy-consuming products has fallen, and the energy revolution will bring about a rapid increase in the supply of low-carbon energy. These factors are restricting coal consumption demand.
Data show that in 2014, my country's total coal consumption was about 3.51 billion tons, down 2.9% from 2013. The growth rate of coal consumption changed from an increase to a decrease for the first time in this century. Overcapacity brought the coal industry into a severe winter.
At the end of 2015, this newspaper issued the question "Where is the way out for the coal industry", which aroused the attention and discussion of the economic circles.
According to Xiao Xinjian, deputy director of the Energy Economics and Development Strategy Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, the main reason for the increase in coal prices this year is the imbalance between supply and demand, but the primary reason is that demand growth has far exceeded expectations.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, my country's total electricity consumption increased by 12.9% year-on-year (a two-year average of 7.4%), driving a year-on-year increase of 10.7% in national power generation.
Affected by insufficient incoming water (hydroelectric power generation decreased by 0.9% year-on-year), the national thermal power generation increased significantly by 11.9% year-on-year.
"It is estimated that thermal power production alone can increase coal consumption by about 250 million tons, which has not been seen in the past 10 years." Xiao Xinjian said that from the supply side, coal supply has failed to keep up with demand growth.
In the first three quarters, national coal production was 2.93 billion tons, an increase of only 3.7% year-on-year, which was far below the double-digit year-on-year growth rate of thermal power generation.
The direct cause of the imbalance between supply and demand is that coal supply has not kept up, and the release of production capacity is not easy.
Xiao Xinjian believes that the main reason for the failure of supply to keep up with demand is due to coal production’s own laws. “The flexibility of coal production is limited. It involves mining, ventilation, water supply and drainage, and it also faces disasters such as water, fire, and gas. The production has strong rigid constraints, and its production process must be planned in advance."
The reporter learned from the China Coal Group that in the Pingshuo mining area of China Coal Group, the number of coal trains sent to the port during the coal supply guarantee period has increased from 17 to 22 per day. There are as many as more than 100 coal cars. Rain and snow require manual shovel and shovel to remove snow to load coal, otherwise the coal will not be unloaded due to freezing after being transported to the port.
Only this small production and transportation link limits the efficiency of coal supply.
The failure to keep up with the supply of coal lies in the fact that "skillful women cannot cook without rice."
Since the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the coal industry has deepened supply-side structural reforms, closed and exited outdated coal production capacity by nearly 1 billion tons/year, and increased advanced production capacity by approximately 630 million tons/year. The industry has had strong capacity reduction efforts and insufficient supply-side elasticity. In addition, for the implementation of the "dual carbon" target deviation, the double control of energy consumption is too hasty, the loss of local coal production capacity is too fast, and the increase in energy demand is superimposed, and there is a phased mismatch of supply and demand.
In addition, in anticipation of coal prices, irrational behaviors such as reluctance to sell and hoarding by market entities have further increased the imbalance between supply and demand in specific times and regions, and strengthened the upward momentum of coal prices.
Some capital speculation factors in the market have also artificially amplified panic and disrupted the normal order of market transactions.
Data show that this year, my country has added more than 30,000 coal trading entities, and coal prices have been boosted by various capitals.
Currently, coal prices have fallen to a low level.
However, this round of contradiction between coal supply and demand is different from previous fluctuations in history. Multiple factors such as coal capacity reduction, power system reform, "dual carbon" goals, and safety and environmental supervision are intertwined and full of complexity.
Xiao Xinjian said that the rigid constraints on coal production have always existed and will not disappear due to "de-capacity".
In fact, it is precisely because of the successful implementation of the "de-capacity" policy that the system has been perfected and effectively guaranteed the orderly production of coal.
"For a long time in the past, there have been a large number of non-compliant production capacity such as scattered coal mines, over-production coal mines, and unapproved coal mines. The lack of rigid constraints has caused many problems in the waste of coal resources, frequent coal mine safety accidents, and serious environmental pollution. Su Ming, director of the Research Department of the Energy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, believes that coal "de-capacity" eliminates outdated production capacity, and my country's coal supply capacity is constantly increasing.
Many experts interviewed by the Economic Daily reporter said that under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, my country's coal consumption will gradually decline, and coal production will be arranged in accordance with its own development rules to ensure the needs of economic and social development.
At the same time, it must be noted that coal power is still the most reliable power source at present, and in the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main part, it is still the most important peak-shaving power source. To the "ballast stone" role.
In Tang Baoguo's view, the "urgency of burning coal" exposed the long-standing problems of the coal industry-
The reverse distribution of coal production and consumption is unbalanced.
Coal production is concentrated in a few provinces such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Mongolia, while the demand for coal transfer into the region is still high, the production area and consumption area are not matched, the coal collection and distribution supporting system is not perfect, the reserve system is not perfect, and the emergency protection capacity is insufficient.
The level of coal efficiency is unbalanced.
From the perspective of coal mine structure, advanced and efficient large-scale modern coal mines coexist with backward coal mines with outdated technology and equipment, low production efficiency, and weak safety guarantee capabilities for a long time; from the perspective of corporate structure, a small number of large-scale coal enterprises with strong financial strength and international competitiveness have a large number of technologies. The long-term coexistence of companies with scarcity of talents, backward management and operating difficulties restricts the overall efficiency of the industry.
The market structure is not balanced.
The coal industry is not highly concentrated, and excessive competition exists for a long time.
The efficiency of coal enterprises is overly dependent on market prices, and the order of competition is chaotic.
Behind the problem are two unavoidable contradictions in my country's energy transition: one is the contradiction between rising energy demand and environmental constraints, and the other is the contradiction between the demand for high-quality clean energy and the supply of low-quality fossil energy.
Under the constraints of the "energy impossible triangle" of "energy use, no pollution, and cheap prices", achieving the "dual carbon" goal is a very complex system engineering.
Coal removal should not be too eager to transform and can not enter rashly
Air pollution, coal is in the back of the pot; electricity is guaranteed, and coal is in charge.
What role does coal play in China's economic and social development?
Is coal "black gold" or "black pot"?
What does coal mean to the Chinese economy?
Niu Kehong, a senior researcher at the China Energy Research Association and a strategy expert at the China Coal Industry Association, believes that one of the most important reminders of the coal shortage is that the role of coal must not be underestimated. .
my country is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal.
In 2020, the proved directly usable coal reserves are 1.75 trillion tons, accounting for 13.3% of the world's reserves; the coal output is 3.84 billion tons, ranking first in the world, and the export volume is second only to Australia.
As a major coal country, the tight coal supply has caught people by surprise.
Niu Kehong said that there is an increase in demand here, but insufficient supply is the main reason. The core is that coal is removed too quickly.
In the future, it is necessary to maintain the positioning of coal as the main energy source in the short and medium term, and to ensure a stable supply of coal under the premise of controlling the total amount.
Beginning in 2016, the supply-side structural reform of the coal industry has started, with a cumulative withdrawal of 1 billion tons of production capacity in 5 years, and a large number of coal mines have been eliminated and closed.
At the same time, relevant departments strictly control new production capacity.
In 2016, the “Opinions of the State Council on Resolving Excessive Capacity in the Coal Industry and Realizing Difficulty Development” stated that the approval of new coal mine projects, technological transformation projects for new production capacity, and capacity nuclear increase projects should be suspended in principle within 3 years; all new coal mines that really need to be built shall be implemented. Reduced replacement.
Data show that in 2019, the National Energy Administration approved 68.4 million tons of new coal mine production capacity, which will drop to 23.3 million tons in 2020; from January to March this year, there were only 14.7 million tons.
Experts said that some safety and environmental inspections have lazy policies and a "one size fits all" approach.
For example, if there is a problem in a mine in a certain area, all mines in the area will be suspended for rectification. This simple approach will also have a certain impact on the release of production capacity, and policy implementation needs to be more targeted.
Statistics show that the concentration of coal production in my country has continued to increase, and the total output of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia accounted for more than 70% of the total output of the country.
In the traditional major coal-producing areas such as Northeast China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, East China, Central South and Southwest, the output has fallen sharply.
This means that coal transportation or coal power output needs to be realized through long-distance transfer.
Recently released third-quarter local economic data show that Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and other places ahead of the regional GDP are far away from the main coal-producing areas, which increases the difficulty of ensuring coal supply.
A few days ago, the “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Electricity Market System” reviewed and approved by the Central Committee for Comprehensive Deepening Reform pointed out that it is necessary to improve the multi-level unified electricity market system, accelerate the construction of the national electricity market, and guide the whole country, provinces (regions, cities), and The coordinated operation and integrated development of regional power markets at all levels, standardized and unified transaction rules and technical standards, promote the formation of a multi-competitive power market structure.
Zhang Hailin, director of the Marketing Research Institute of Huaneng Group’s Fuel Department, said that my country’s coal resource endowment determines the need for coal to be circulated and allocated across the country, forming a pattern of "west coal transportation to the east and north coal transportation to the south". With the concentration of coal production capacity With further improvement, transportation distances have become longer, and the elasticity of national supply has decreased, which has increased the difficulty of stabilizing supply.
It can be considered to strengthen the flexibility of coal production capacity and the construction of social reserve capacity, as well as macro data analysis and early warning to ensure the stability of coal supply and demand.
Poor coal imports are also believed to be part of the reason for the tight supply.
In the past, my country imported 300 million to 400 million tons of coal each year. However, due to various reasons, the cumulative coal imports in the first three quarters of this year fell by 3.6% year-on-year.
Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, said that these 300 to 400 million tons accounted for about one-tenth of my country's total coal consumption.
If coal is transported from the north to the south and the freight price is high, the southeast coastal cities will choose to import coal from countries such as Indonesia to reduce transportation costs by sea.
For this reason, in order to regulate the domestic market, this channel still needs to be unblocked.
From the demand side, to ensure the balance of coal supply and demand, the power market reform should be accelerated.
Coal power is a large coal user, but the relationship between “coal power” has been poor for a long time. After the price of coal has risen sharply, it is difficult to reflect the true cost because the price of electricity can only be adjusted slightly. The more power generation companies generate, the greater the loss.
On October 12, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Further Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of Coal-fired Power Generation On-grid Tariffs" and decided to liberalize the on-grid electricity tariffs for all coal-fired power generation in an orderly manner.
In principle, all coal-fired power generation electricity will enter the electricity market. The trading price fluctuation range will be increased from the current float not exceeding 10%, the float not exceeding 15% in principle, and the fluctuation will not exceed 20% in principle. High energy-consuming enterprise market transactions Electricity prices are not subject to a 20% increase.
The “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Electricity Market System” reviewed and approved by the Central Committee for Comprehensive Deepening Reform also has a lot of implications for straightening out coal and electricity prices. Achieve an effective balance between power supply and demand.
The State Council executive meeting held on November 17 made it clear that my country’s energy resource endowment is dominated by coal. It is necessary to focus on improving the level of clean and efficient use of coal and accelerate the commercialization of mature technologies.
It is decided to set up another 200 billion yuan to support the special re-loan for the clean and efficient use of coal, form a policy scale, and promote green and low-carbon development.
Promoting the balance of coal supply and demand requires the efforts of the whole society.
Saving energy is not only a virtue, it is especially important when electricity and coal are in short supply.
my country's energy consumption per unit of GDP is still 1.5 times the world average, and greater efforts should be made to save energy and reduce consumption.
The future of the coal industry lies in clean utilization
If there is no accurate positioning and understanding of coal, the "coal shortage" may recur in the future.
This is the consensus of coal and coal power companies in the survey.
When inspecting the National Energy Group Yulin Chemical Co., Ltd. not long ago, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that coal is my country’s main energy source. It is necessary to follow the development direction of green and low-carbon, and to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality based on national conditions and control. The total amount, holding the bottom line, orderly reduction and substitution, and promote the transformation and upgrading of coal consumption.
The first is to control the total amount.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, coal consumption growth was strictly controlled, and during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, it was gradually reduced. ”, the “Carbon Peaking Action Plan by 2030” promulgated by the State Council, and “China’s Policies and Actions to Address Climate Change” have been concentratedly reflected in the white paper.
The second is to hold the bottom line.
Our country is rich in coal, poor in oil, and low in gas.
In terms of resource reserves, coal accounts for about 94% of my country's total proven fossil energy resources.
From the perspective of ensuring national energy security, the degree of foreign dependence on oil and natural gas reached 73% and 43% respectively.
From the perspective of the development trend of alternative energy sources, renewable energy generation will account for only 29.5% of the total electricity consumption in the society in 2020, and it will be more difficult to increase significantly in the short term.
Such resource endowment determines that coal's dominant position in the energy structure is difficult to replace in the short to medium term.
The prerequisite for the transformation is to ensure energy security.
Experts said that only by making good use of the role of coal to ensure the bottom line, as well as the basic guarantee and system regulation role of coal power in the construction of a new power system, and always firmly adhere to the bottom line of energy security and stable supply, can we effectively avoid the intermittent, intermittent, and The issue of volatility promotes a smooth transition of the energy transition.
Again, it is an orderly reduction substitution.
Energy replacement cannot be accomplished overnight. To this end, we must vigorously implement clean fossil energy and promote the green, clean and efficient production and utilization of the coal industry.
Xie Kechang, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that a deep understanding of my country's energy resource endowment and the fundamental role of coal to ensure clean, efficient and sustainable development and utilization of coal is a choice that conforms to the current basic national conditions and basic capabilities.
At present, 60% of the coal resources mined in my country each year are used for power generation; at the same time, about 50% of my country's power installation structure is coal power.
This determines that to achieve clean and efficient use of coal, it is necessary to make a fuss about coal power.
At the headquarters of Huaneng Group, the reporter saw China's first integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) project-Huaneng Tianjin IGCC demonstration power station model.
IGCC technology integrates the two major industries of chemical industry and electric power. It has outstanding features such as high power generation efficiency, good environmental performance, and relatively low cost of carbon dioxide treatment. Coal power generation technology carries the hope and future of China's green and low-carbon power generation technology.
Although the power generation efficiency of large-scale power stations in my country has reached a relatively high level, there is still much room for improvement in the efficiency of small and medium-sized coal-fired power generating units.
At present, my country has an installed capacity of 450 million kilowatts for medium-sized units with a capacity of 300,000 kilowatts, and there are also a large number of small power stations and self-supplied power plants of around 50,000 kilowatts.
Ni Weidou, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and former vice president of Tsinghua University, believes that the first priority is to increase the efficiency of coal power as soon as possible and reduce coal consumption.
At present, there are still a large number of low-efficiency and small-capacity units. If you work hard in this area, you can also reduce the use of coal by a large amount.
Even if there are energy sources that can replace coal, coal will still be useful after carbon peaks.
Tang Baoguo said that it is necessary to raise coal to a new level of national energy security "under the protection" and make a new position, continue to do a good job in the clean and efficient use of coal, not easily divert attention from coal, and do not talk about "decoalization". ".
Coal should gradually evolve from the main energy source to guarantee energy and support energy. Even if carbon neutrality is fully realized in the future, power peak shaving, carbon reductant for steel production and the bottom-line energy to alleviate the dependence of oil and gas to ensure energy security are inseparable. Open coal.
According to estimates, by the time of carbon neutrality, my country's annual coal demand will still need about 1.2 billion tons.
In addition to burning coal, another important way is to convert coal from fuel to raw material.
At present, the development of the coal chemical industry has become an important way to give play to the characteristics of my country's energy resource endowment, promote the transformation and upgrading of coal consumption, and ensure the security of national energy resources.
Under the dual-carbon goal, making black coal "green" is the only choice for future industrial development.
Today, the time left for the transformation and development of the coal industry is very urgent.
The coal industry must bravely meet the challenge, step out of the vicious circle of "the market is in good times when there is no intention to transform, and the market is not able to transform when the market is weak", and unswervingly follow the path of transformation and development.
(Members of the research team: Xu Han, Gu Yang, Huang Xiaofang, and Wang Yichen)